> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Thursday, November 12th, 2026 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/thursday-november-12th-2026/ - Published: 2026-11-12T11:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-12T11:00:04.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## NFL Advanced Stat Plays *Scott Seidenberg looks at some NFL Advanced Stats to come up with some Player Prop plays for Thursday Night Football and Sunday in the NFL.* [![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/11/bettor-days.jpg)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! [Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) # ๐Ÿˆ TONIGHT: COMMANDERS AT GIANTS ## โญ PLAY 1: JAYDEN DANIELS 40+ RUSHING YARDS | Kalshi โ€” Daniels rushing yards | Price | $100 returns | | ------------------------------ | -------------------- | ------------ | | 25+ | 69ยข | $141.84 | | 30+ | 60ยข | โ€” | | **40+** | **45ยข (about +114)** | **$213.97** | **The case is one specific stat, and most people aren't looking at it.** **Scramble yards** โ€” quarterback improvisation, not designed runs. **The Giants have allowed 225 of them this season, second-most in the NFL.** Only Cincinnati has allowed more, at 227. **And here's what makes it actionable rather than coincidental:** New York's **blitz percentage is higher than Cincinnati's**, even though their overall pressure rate is slightly lower. They send extra bodies, the quarterback escapes, and nobody is accounting for him. That's a structural problem, not a bad week. **Last Sunday is the proof.** The Giants faced Joe Milton in his first start - **He finished with 9 carries for 64 yards and was the leading rusher in the game, for either team.** **Give that defense an actual running quarterback and 40 yards is a low bar.** ## โญ PLAY 2: ISAIAH LIKELY ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN **Washington cannot cover tight ends.** | Most tight end touchdowns allowed | | | --------------------------------- | --------------------------------------- | | Lions | 11 | | Cardinals | 9 | | **Commanders** | **8 in 8 games โ€” exactly one per game** | **And we have a blueprint from Week 5, because Likely already did this to them:** | Week 5 vs. Washington | | | --------------------------------- | ------------------------------- | | **Targets / catches** | **9 of 11** | | **Yards** | **78** | | **Touchdowns** | **2** | | **Share of routes from the slot** | **87%** | | **Game totals** | **11 catches, 94 yards, 2 TDs** | **This isn't a one-game fluke of alignment either.** Per NFL Next Gen Stats, **Likely has run 77.5% of his routes from the slot this season โ€” a career high.** The usage that beat Washington in October is his normal usage now. **Go back to the well.** --- # ๐Ÿ“Š THE STAT TO LEARN THIS WEEK: PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED **What it measures:** how often a team passes or runs **compared to what an average team does in that exact same situation.** Down by ten in the third quarter, every offense throws. This strips out the situation and tells you about the team's actual philosophy. ## Where it points right now **The 49ers rank 10th โ€” and they were higher before the receivers got hurt.** Over the last couple of weeks that number has come down, which makes sense: they lost Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel. They traded for Keenan Allen and Deebo could be back, but the trend is real. ### โญ The angle: Christian McCaffrey against Dallas Two things stacking in the same direction: - **The Cowboys allow 168 rushing yards per game.** That's simply bad. - **San Francisco's pass rate over expected is falling**, meaning they're committing to establishing the run earlier in games. **More early carries into one of the league's worst run defenses.** We'll look harder at McCaffrey's props as the weekend gets closer. *Shout out Sam Hoppen for a great article this week on PROE* ### The league leaders, and what they tell you | Highest pass rate over expected | | | ------------------------------- | ------------ | | **1.** | **Bengals** | | **2.** | **Packers** | | **3.** | **Panthers** | **Green Bay is there because they have no running game** โ€” and with Josh Jacobs dealing with the finger injury, that isn't changing. **The question for Sunday is whether a pass-first script works against Minnesota's defense**, in a game where the spread has already dropped with Kirk Cousins taking over for the Vikings. --- # โญโญ SUNDAY NIGHT: THE JOE BURROW NUMBER, AND THE MATH BEHIND IT **Bengals at Steelers.** Burrow is the MVP favorite. **The books have him at 37.5 pass attempts** โ€” and that number is almost certainly anchored to the last meeting. ## Why the market landed on 37.5 **Week 3 was a shootout. The Steelers won 30-27**, Burrow threw for 282 and three scores, Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 and three scores. **Burrow attempted 37 passes.** **That 37 is his third-highest attempt total against any opponent this year** โ€” behind 54 against Jacksonville and 48 in the bizarre overtime game against Tennessee. So the book set the line where he last landed, and it looks reasonable. ## โญ But run the division | | | | --------------------------------------- | -------- | | **Bengals offensive plays this season** | **488** | | **Burrow pass attempts** | **296** | | **Passes per play** | **0.61** | | Plays run, recent games | | | --------------------------------------- | --------------- | | **Week 3 at Pittsburgh** (37 attempts) | **56** | | **Last week vs. Atlanta** (29 attempts) | **55** | | **Season average** | **61 per game** | **Now do the arithmetic.** At **60 plays**, 0.61 passes per play gives you **36.6 attempts.** > โญ **36.6 is UNDER 37.5\. And that's at 60 plays โ€” right around their season average.** **The under gets safer from there.** If this turns into a ball-control, lower-scoring divisional game rather than a second shootout, the Bengals run fewer plays, which means fewer pass attempts. **The only way the over comes in is if we get another 56-play track meet where Burrow throws on nearly two-thirds of the snaps.** **That's the whole handicap: this prop isn't a question about Joe Burrow. It's a question about pace.** Decide how many snaps you think Cincinnati gets, multiply by 0.61, and you have your answer. --- ## ๐Ÿ“… Coming Up Today ### ๐Ÿ“บ The Bettor Day Football Show โ€” 2 p.m. Eastern **Scott, Steve Fezzik and AJ Hoffman** break down all of **NFL Week 10** and **Week 11 in college football** โ€” including **a couple of system plays inside the top 25.** Streaming live on YouTube/BettorDay and on X **@Bettor\_Day**, with the podcast dropping to this feed after. --- ### ๐Ÿ€ Welcome Justin Everett โ€” and he's already 1-0 **Our new NBA contributor, Justin Everett (aka Smoove), went up with his first free play article yesterday: Pacers โˆ’2.5\. They won 114-101 over the Wizards.** A winner on the first one out the door. **Justin's free play article runs every Wednesday**, with additional free and premium plays through the week and weekend. ## NBA HQ Our [**NBA HQ**](https://www.bettorday.com/nba-hq/)is live with matchup analysis on player props, plus the four factors and the first quarter and first half databases, at BettorDay.com and in the Bettor Day mobile app. All our data & analysis is included with an Insider Membership. Premium adds the picks: every play from every Bettor Day contributor, in one dashboard.[**Compare tiers โ†’**](https://bettorday.com/membership/?ref=bettorday.com) **Bettor Day Fall Special:** $25 off your first month of BettorDay Premium. | ๐Ÿ‚ The Fall Special ๐Ÿ‚ $25 off your first month of Premium Every sport in season, every pick, every HQ. Your first month is **$29.99** $54.99. 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