HOF Game, Wyndham Championship & 32 in 32: Denver Broncos

Scott Seidenberg and David Bearman talk NFL Hall of Fame Game, best bets for the Wyndham Championship and our 32 in 32 preview of the Denver Broncos.

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🏈 FOOTBALL IS BACK: HALL OF FAME GAME TONIGHT

Panthers vs Cardinals — Tom Benson Stadium, Canton

The Total: Under or Pass

The trend: FOUR straight overs in this game — but with context.

Bearman: "It's not like these numbers have been 52. We're talking 37, 36, 34, 33. The number has come DOWN so far over the years that they tend to lean over now."

Scott's read: "Maybe that's exactly why — more information is out there, the public understands these games go under, the numbers get suppressed, and we get overs. The number's accurate. No official play. But if you can shop a 36.5, take the under. And if the public pushes this up on any book, look under."

(Fezzik's number yesterday: 35.25.)

⛈️ THE WEATHER FACTOR

Canton tonight: 87 degrees, heavy humidity, real feel 92 — with thunderstorms in the forecast.

Scott: "We could get a delay. We could get the game ending early. Weather, fatigue, heat, and humidity could all play a factor — always something to consider betting early preseason."

🏈 BEARMAN'S PRESEASON CHECKLIST

What he actually looks for:

1. How the coach treats preseason. "We knew for years John Harbaugh and the Ravens would win and cover every single game. Does he take that mindset to New York, and do the Giants cover every week?" Meanwhile Canales' Panthers scored 17 total points across three games last year.
2. Coaches who play starters long. "Mike Tomlin was known for keeping the Steelers' first string in through the entire first half. Steelers second quarter was a bet I made very often last year."
3. Quarterback position battles. "When the Browns play, there's something to look at with Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders — they'll play starters longer. If Watson is suddenly playing three quarters, that tells you something."

The one filter: "It only matters at quarterback. It doesn't matter if it's a rookie receiver or a fourth-string receiver."

Bonus: Bearman wrote the Carson Beck column for PrizePicks — up now.

⛳ THE WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP

The Last Chance: Top 70 Move On

The stakes: Top 70 after this week advance to Memphis and the first leg of the three-leg FedEx Cup playoffs.

THE BUBBLE PLAYS

Mac Meissner (currently 71st) — 55/1 to win, plus top 10

Bearman: "Does he need a top 10 or 20 to qualify? He finished T9 at Myrtle Beach, T3 at Charles Schwab, T6 at John Deere — B-field events without the top 10 in the world. Good success in smaller, weaker fields, and he needs a good week."

Davis Thompson (currently 81st) — one to watch

Bearman: "Why is he 81st? He was in the hundreds before last week. But he's gone 11th, 12th, and 22nd in each of the last three years HERE. Strong finishes the last two weeks gave him a shot."

THE CARD

Ben Griffin — 27/1 to win, top 20 +145

Bearman: "Jason Sobel joked with me that 'strokes gained North Carolina' is very popular at this course — North Carolina players play it well. Griffin's from UNC. Course is built for accurate ball strikers who also putt well, and his game has been exceptional on Donald Ross venues — Sedgefield, Detroit, Aronimink, East Lake. Six top-10/top-15 finishes in his career, putting is top 20 in the field, 6th around the green, 33rd overall. He missed the cut last week by one shot off the tee. Four top-11 finishes here including 11th last year."

Cam Young — TOP 10 at +125 (NOT the outright at +850)

Bearman: "He's the favorite for a reason. Mid-season slump with four straight non-top-25s, then right back to early form — runner-up at the Open, 8th last week in Detroit. And this is where he won his first ever PGA Tour event last year. But the number's too short. I'm not buying at +850, same as I wasn't buying 9/1 last week. Top 10 at +125 — exact same number I gave out last week, and I think it cashes again."

Tom Kim — 36/1 outright (the long shot)

Bearman: "Third at the US Open, won the Scottish, disappointed with the Open missed cut, then T20 in Minnesota. The guy's playing as well as anybody. Fifth on approach, gained strokes in 10 straight events, 14th tee-to-green."

THE JACKSON KOIVUN QUESTION

The situation: Last year's amateur fifth-place finisher here is now 70th on the bubble, and the second favorite at +1500.

Bearman's play: TOP 20 (around even money)

"I played him top 10 last week for the same reason and he finished just outside. So I'm expanding to top 20. He was 69th going into last week and dropped to 70th. He probably just needs to make the cut to move on — but you don't want to risk it. I can't play him to win as the second shortest favorite; those numbers make no sense. But top 20 at even money is good value, he played well here last year, and he needs a good finish to make Memphis."

FedEx Cup Futures

Bearman: "Of the top three, I'd pick Cam Young. East Lake is only top 30 — you just have to GET there and then win it. No more starting-score staggering, they got rid of it. Scheffler is the favorite for a reason, but second place doesn't win you the FedEx Cup, and he's been second place all year. East Lake is a course Cam Young can win.

And watch Tom Kim at 68/1 — fifth on approach and 14th tee-to-green is the game that wins East Lake. He just has to get in there first."

🏈 32 IN 32: DENVER BRONCOS

(AFC West begins — with Bearman)

The Market

Trench Report (preseason): 3rd ranked trench team in the NFL | 20th most difficult trench SOS (i.e. 12th easiest) | 11th easiest schedule by Vegas win totals

THE BEARMAN RANT: THE FIRST-PLACE SCHEDULE MYTH

Bearman: "I'm throwing the first-place schedule myth out the window, because not all first-place schedules are created equal. All four teams in a division play the exact same schedule except for THREE games."

Denver's three "first place" games: Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Jacksonville.

Bearman: "That's not murderers' row. That's not Seattle, Buffalo, Kansas City. Their schedule is arguably harder for the CHARGERS — and the Chargers didn't finish first. Plus both get the Dolphins, Jets, and Cardinals. The Broncos get Seattle and the Rams AT HOME; the Chargers go on the road to LA."

THE OVER 9.5 CASE

Bearman: "I like them more than most media members and handicappers. People expect a step back from a 14-win one-seed — and they're not wrong. But taking a step back doesn't mean 7-10.

They won a LOT of one-score games last year. Cut those in half and it's a ten-win team. They probably should have won 10 or 11, not 14. So 'step back' doesn't mean missing the playoffs. You still have an outstanding coach in Sean Payton, and Bo Nix returning off injury after a phenomenal year, entering year three.

Maybe they step back and win eleven. You know what eleven does? It hits your over. Maybe they win ten — still hits your over."

THE UNDERRATED MOVE: JAYLEN WADDLE

Bearman: "We haven't even mentioned that they traded for Jaylen Waddle. They didn't just add a receiver off the scrap heap — they got a top-20 receiver who could be a WR1. Last year Courtland Sutton had 1,000 yards as the number one, but there was NO number two — Troy Franklin was second at 700. Now Nix has Sutton AND Waddle."

🎯 THE WEEK ONE EDGE

Scott: "The Broncos have a massive benefit nobody else has. They play the Chiefs in WEEK ONE. If there's any week Patrick Mahomes isn't going to be Patrick Mahomes, it's week one. I don't even know if he plays. I watched training camp video and he didn't look like he was moving well — I get it, it's August 6th, not September 14th. But if you asked me what week I want the Chiefs with Mahomes coming off the injury? Give me week one. That's when Denver has them."

The trench angle: "Even though the Chiefs are 3-point home favorites on that Monday night opener, the Trench Report says the Broncos have the edge. That might mean we take the Broncos plus the points — more when we get closer."

Bearman: "Totally agree. Kansas City week one, then the Dolphins, Jets, Cardinals — and Seattle and LA come to Mile High. This is a team that should win 10 games."

THE PROPS

Bearman on Waddle: "He limped off today — he limps off all the time; my Dolphins group text went off. But over five seasons in Miami he averaged 1,000 yards and 75 catches with Tyreek Hill on the other side, through injuries, through an offense that disappeared when Tua got hurt, through a bad offensive line. He went over 850.5 in FOUR of his FIVE seasons. Give me Waddle for a full season."

The Verdict

Bearman: "Over 9.5, absolutely. They had one of the best defenses in football, a quality quarterback, good receivers, and an outstanding coach. Not expecting the number one seed — but I would not be surprised. I'm not playing 19/1 to win the Super Bowl though; I'd rather use that on the Chargers. And I'm not sure why the Chiefs are the division favorite right now."

Want more David Bearman? Check out the Betting w/Bearman Podcast and BearmanBets.com

Bearman joins every Wednesday morning on the pod, with select plays for Premium members

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