NFL Preseason Week 2, UFC Fight Night & 32 in 32: Green Bay Packers

Scott Seidenberg and AJ Hoffman talk NFL Preseason Week 2 kicking off tonight and preview the Green Bay Packers as a part of our 32 in 32 NFL team previews. Plus AJ gives his Best Bets for UFC Fight Night this Saturday in Sacramento.

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🏈 NFL Preseason Week 2: Fade the Steam?

The update: Per Evan Abrams of Action Network — every game that moved 1.5+ points from open to close in preseason Week 1 went 0-9 ATS.

The Three-Year Number

Since the 2024 preseason: 27-48 ATS when lines move 1.5 points.

How Do We Treat It?

AJ: "It's scary to follow steam in the preseason. Before I started working closely with Steve Fezzik about five years ago, I would have never touched a preseason game with a ten-foot pole. He showed me some of the advantages.

But I still don't feel great going in — I have no idea how many snaps guys will play, and sometimes you don't even know who these players ARE. You've never seen them before. It's a volatile market to begin with.

When you told me they hadn't won all week, my first instinct was to jump on the other side. I'm going to avoid that. Save the NFL bankroll for three weeks from now and don't make big judgments off one crazy week."

🎯 TONIGHT'S TEST: TEXANS vs RAIDERS

The move: A three-point steam move — Raiders now -1.5 at Houston.

The setup: Houston also qualifies as an "embarrassed dog" (blown out last week, now a home dog). Fade the steam, take the Texans.

More on The Bettor Day Football Show LIVE STREAM at 2 PM ET today!

🏥 INJURY NEWS

Jayden Higgins — Torn ACL, Out for the Season

The loss: Houston's No. 2/3 receiver. Last year as a rookie: 525 yards, 6 touchdowns in 10 starts.

AJ: "It hurts a lot, because there are still questions about Tank Dell. Health on the offensive side has been a problem for the Texans for a couple of years. And this is a year where people are tired of making excuses for CJ Stroud — when everybody's tired of your excuses, the last thing you want is a reason to need one. These are things piling up that could make it tough for CJ."

Trevon Diggs to Seattle

AJ: "Trevon Diggs is not good. That is a NAME that people know. Look at the Seahawks' secondary with the Terrion Arnold situation — there's a lot of dart throwing right now. It's kind of desperation stuff, and the hope is if you throw three or four darts maybe one hits. I don't believe Diggs is the one. I watched him closely last season — I don't think there's anything there."

🏈 32 IN 32: GREEN BAY PACKERS

⭐ THE PLAY: UNDER 9.5 WINS (+110)

Also live: Packers to MISS the playoffs at EVEN MONEY, and Scott recommends a plus-money alternate win total under — "one injury could derail this season."

📊 THE TRENCH REPORT VERDICT: DEAD LAST

With Micah Parsons out until mid-October at best, Green Bay is 32nd of 32.

AJ: "And remember — they sent out defensive line depth to GET Micah Parsons. When he was out last year, you saw how much it hurt not to have those bodies on the interior."

The Quarterback Problem

Scott: "They let Malik Willis walk out the door with Jeff Hafley to Miami. There's no plan behind Jordan Love. And we've seen Jordan Love get hurt. What are you doing — Kyle McCord? Tyrod Taylor? That's your insurance policy? For all the knocks on Willis, he played really well in relief — I didn't feel like the offense missed much."

AJ: "Those concerns are founded — but it's not just quarterback. There's a world where Jordan Love takes the step he's been knocking on the door of for years. But until he does it, I'm assuming he is what he is: a slightly above-average NFL quarterback. That's not good enough to carry a roster with this many issues."

📉 THE STAT: NO 1,000-YARD RECEIVER SINCE 2021

Scott: "How do you compete in the NFL in 2026 without a thousand-yard receiver?"

AJ: "The Packers have felt stuck since Davante left — a lot of serviceable receivers, none you totally trust. And how do you compete when the Lions have Amon-Ra, the Bears have this explosive new offense, and the Vikings are probably the best-schemed team in the division?

You're an old school, grimy, run-the-football-first team. Teams CAN win that way — but almost always when they do, they're elite on defense. The Packers are not."

The Jacobs problem: "When your best offensive player is a running back, that can go away any minute. One turned ankle and you're in real trouble because the depth behind him is even worse." Scott: "He's already dealing with training camp injuries."

The Schedule

AJ: "That schedule is tough. The NFC North is brutal — the Lions are almost a lock to be better, and if Kyler Murray is healthy with that Minnesota coaching staff, the Vikings are a very dangerous football team. Then from other divisions you've got the Rams, the Bills, the Texans late. It's a very small needle to thread. This is not a roster built to win that division — and now you have to hope you're top two just for a playoff shot."

🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK 0 IS NINE DAYS AWAY

TCU -7.5 vs North Carolina (Dublin, Ireland)

AJ's lean: TCU — but he's holding.

"I haven't bet it because I was hoping Bill Belichick would make the WRONG choice at quarterback. Unfortunately I think he made the right one — Billy Edwards Jr. over Miles O'Neill. I was hoping for the wrong side so I could catch a better number with TCU.

I don't believe Bill Belichick loves being the head coach at North Carolina. I don't think he even wants to be doing this. I expect a season reminiscent of last year's 4-8 disaster. He's used to having the best players and he doesn't have that. And young college-age players don't have an interest in dealing with the kind of whip Belichick likes to crack. I don't think he's built to be a college coach — and without early success, it's going to unravel on him."

🥊 UFC FIGHT NIGHT — SACRAMENTO

(AJ went 3-1 on last week's best bets at BettorDay.com)

⭐ THE BEST BET: VITOR PETRINO — KO/TKO/DQ OR POINTS (-120 Double Chance on FanDuel)

The co-main heavyweight fight vs Serghei Spivac.

AJ: "Spivac is a top-ten guy, but when he's fought guys who are even remotely good heavyweights, he's typically gotten steamrolled. He has a size advantage but he's not a great finisher, he's older, his chin is probably going away, and he has very little diversity — a decent takedown artist with decent submissions, but he doesn't have the power most heavyweights have.

Petrino has won four in a row since moving up to heavyweight and I think he's too fast for him. He should probably be closer to -200."

The structure: Petrino's straight moneyline has been juiced to -160. KO/TKO is +220, points +320.

Scott's find: The double chance market — KO/TKO/DQ or points at -120.

AJ: "That's what I'll endorse as my best bet. He won't win by submission — that won't happen. So -120 is a really good number. Anytime a lighter guy moves up against heavyweights it could be a slog against the cage for fifteen minutes, so taking the method risk out is the play."

The Main Event: Hernandez vs Rodrigues

AJ: "I think the number is a little off. Gregory Rodrigues is a very live underdog — he's got the kind of power that can end a fight very quickly. But he's an older guy and sometimes the wheels fall off fast. If I play him, I want his TKO/KO prop, which should be around 2/1."

📅 Coming Up

TODAY

• 🎬 The Bettor Day Football Show — 2 PM ET, live on YouTube and @Bettor_Day. Scott, Fezzik & Duck. Theme: betting look-ahead spots.
• Preseason Week 2 kicks off

Tomorrow

• 32 in 32 wraps the NFC North with the Minnesota Vikings.

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