> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Thursday, August 20th, 2026 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/thursday-august-20th-2026/ - Published: 2026-08-20T10:00:26.000Z - Updated: 2026-08-20T10:00:25.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## NFL Preseason Week 2, UFC Fight Night & 32 in 32: Green Bay Packers *Scott Seidenberg and AJ Hoffman talk NFL Preseason Week 2 kicking off tonight and preview the Green Bay Packers as a part of our 32 in 32 NFL team previews. Plus AJ gives his Best Bets for UFC Fight Night this Saturday in Sacramento.* [![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! [Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) ## 🏈 NFL Preseason Week 2: Fade the Steam? **The update:** Per Evan Abrams of Action Network — **every game that moved 1.5+ points from open to close in preseason Week 1 went 0-9 ATS.** ### The Three-Year Number **Since the 2024 preseason: 27-48 ATS when lines move 1.5 points.** --- ### How Do We Treat It? **AJ:** "It's scary to follow steam in the preseason. Before I started working closely with Steve Fezzik about five years ago, **I would have never touched a preseason game with a ten-foot pole.** He showed me some of the advantages. But I still don't feel great going in — **I have no idea how many snaps guys will play, and sometimes you don't even know who these players ARE.** You've never seen them before. It's a volatile market to begin with. When you told me they hadn't won all week, my first instinct was to jump on the other side. **I'm going to avoid that. Save the NFL bankroll for three weeks from now and don't make big judgments off one crazy week.**" --- ### 🎯 TONIGHT'S TEST: TEXANS vs RAIDERS **The move:** A **three-point** steam move — Raiders now **\-1.5** at Houston. **The setup:** Houston also qualifies as an "embarrassed dog" (blown out last week, now a home dog). **Fade the steam, take the Texans.** *More on The Bettor Day Football Show* [*LIVE STREAM* ](https://www.youtube.com/@BettorDay?ref=bettorday.com)*at 2 PM ET today!* --- ## 🏥 INJURY NEWS ### Jayden Higgins — Torn ACL, Out for the Season **The loss:** Houston's No. 2/3 receiver. Last year as a rookie: **525 yards, 6 touchdowns in 10 starts**. **AJ:** "It hurts a lot, because there are still questions about Tank Dell. **Health on the offensive side has been a problem for the Texans for a couple of years.** And this is a year where people are tired of making excuses for CJ Stroud — **when everybody's tired of your excuses, the last thing you want is a reason to need one.** These are things piling up that could make it tough for CJ." --- ### Trevon Diggs to Seattle **AJ:** "**Trevon Diggs is not good. That is a NAME that people know.** Look at the Seahawks' secondary with the Terrion Arnold situation — **there's a lot of dart throwing right now.** It's kind of desperation stuff, and the hope is if you throw three or four darts maybe one hits. **I don't believe Diggs is the one.** I watched him closely last season — I don't think there's anything there." --- # 🏈 32 IN 32: GREEN BAY PACKERS ## ⭐ THE PLAY: UNDER 9.5 WINS (+110) **Also live:** Packers to **MISS the playoffs at EVEN MONEY**, and Scott recommends a **plus-money alternate win total under** — "one injury could derail this season." --- ## 📊 THE TRENCH REPORT VERDICT: DEAD LAST **With Micah Parsons out until mid-October at best, Green Bay is 32nd of 32.** | Unit | Rank | | -------------------------- | -------- | | Run blocking | 26th | | **Pass rush (no Parsons)** | **29th** | | Run defense | 30th | | **Pass blocking** | **31st** | **AJ:** "And remember — **they sent out defensive line depth to GET Micah Parsons.** When he was out last year, you saw how much it hurt not to have those bodies on the interior." --- ## The Quarterback Problem **Scott:** "They let **Malik Willis** walk out the door with Jeff Hafley to Miami. **There's no plan behind Jordan Love.** And we've seen Jordan Love get hurt. What are you doing — Kyle McCord? Tyrod Taylor? **That's your insurance policy?** For all the knocks on Willis, he played really well in relief — I didn't feel like the offense missed much." **AJ:** "Those concerns are founded — **but it's not just quarterback.** There's a world where Jordan Love takes the step he's been knocking on the door of for years. **But until he does it, I'm assuming he is what he is: a slightly above-average NFL quarterback. That's not good enough to carry a roster with this many issues.**" --- ## 📉 THE STAT: NO 1,000-YARD RECEIVER SINCE 2021 | Year | Leading Receiver | | -------- | ------------------------- | | 2022 | Allen Lazard — 788 | | 2023 | Jayden Reed — 793 | | 2024 | Jayden Reed — 857 | | 2025 | Romeo Doubs — 724 | | **2021** | **Davante Adams — 1,553** | **Scott:** "How do you compete in the NFL in 2026 without a thousand-yard receiver?" **AJ:** "The Packers have felt stuck since Davante left — **a lot of serviceable receivers, none you totally trust.** And how do you compete when the Lions have Amon-Ra, the Bears have this explosive new offense, and the Vikings are probably the best-schemed team in the division? **You're an old school, grimy, run-the-football-first team.** Teams CAN win that way — **but almost always when they do, they're elite on defense.** The Packers are not." **The Jacobs problem:** "When your best offensive player is a running back, that can go away any minute. One turned ankle and you're in real trouble because the depth behind him is even worse." **Scott:** "He's already dealing with training camp injuries." --- ## The Schedule **AJ:** "That schedule is tough. The NFC North is brutal — **the Lions are almost a lock to be better, and if Kyler Murray is healthy with that Minnesota coaching staff, the Vikings are a very dangerous football team.** Then from other divisions you've got the Rams, the Bills, the Texans late. **It's a very small needle to thread. This is not a roster built to win that division — and now you have to hope you're top two just for a playoff shot.**" --- ## 🏈 COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK 0 IS NINE DAYS AWAY ### TCU -7.5 vs North Carolina (Dublin, Ireland) **AJ's lean: TCU — but he's holding.** "**I haven't bet it because I was hoping Bill Belichick would make the WRONG choice at quarterback.** Unfortunately I think he made the right one — Billy Edwards Jr. over Miles O'Neill. I was hoping for the wrong side so I could catch a better number with TCU. **I don't believe Bill Belichick loves being the head coach at North Carolina. I don't think he even wants to be doing this.** I expect a season reminiscent of last year's 4-8 disaster. He's used to having the best players and he doesn't have that. **And young college-age players don't have an interest in dealing with the kind of whip Belichick likes to crack. I don't think he's built to be a college coach** — and without early success, it's going to unravel on him." --- ## 🥊 UFC FIGHT NIGHT — SACRAMENTO *(AJ went *3-1* on last week's best bets at* [*BettorDay.com*](https://www.bettorday.com/)*)* ### ⭐ THE BEST BET: VITOR PETRINO — KO/TKO/DQ **OR** POINTS (-120 Double Chance on FanDuel) **The co-main heavyweight fight vs Serghei Spivac.** **AJ:** "Spivac is a top-ten guy, but **when he's fought guys who are even remotely good heavyweights, he's typically gotten steamrolled.** He has a size advantage but he's not a great finisher, he's older, **his chin is probably going away, and he has very little diversity** — a decent takedown artist with decent submissions, but he doesn't have the power most heavyweights have. **Petrino has won four in a row since moving up to heavyweight and I think he's too fast for him.** He should probably be closer to -200." **The structure:** Petrino's straight moneyline has been juiced to **\-160**. KO/TKO is **+220**, points **+320**. **Scott's find:** The **double chance** market — **KO/TKO/DQ or points at -120.** **AJ:** "**That's what I'll endorse as my best bet.** He won't win by submission — that won't happen. So -120 is a really good number. Anytime a lighter guy moves up against heavyweights it could be a slog against the cage for fifteen minutes, so **taking the method risk out is the play.**" --- ### The Main Event: Hernandez vs Rodrigues **AJ:** "**I think the number is a little off.** Gregory Rodrigues is a very live underdog — **he's got the kind of power that can end a fight very quickly.** But he's an older guy and sometimes the wheels fall off fast. **If I play him, I want his TKO/KO prop, which should be around 2/1.**" --- ## 📅 Coming Up ### TODAY - **🎬 The Bettor Day Football Show** — 2 PM ET, live on [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/@BettorDay?ref=bettorday.com) and [@Bettor\_Day.](https://x.com/Bettor%5FDay?ref=bettorday.com) Scott, Fezzik & Duck. **Theme: betting look-ahead spots.** - **Preseason Week 2** kicks off ### Tomorrow - **32 in 32** wraps the NFC North with the Minnesota Vikings. --- ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/08/app-promo-newsletter-horizontal.png) **The Bettor Day app is now available on BOTH** [**Apple**](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/bettor-day/id6783427144%20Bettor%20Day?ref=bettorday.com) **and** [**Google Play**](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.bettorday.app&ref=bettorday.com) --- [ Bettor Day Exclusive Sportsbook Promos Promo Codes, Unlocked For You We've partnered with top sportsbooks to bring exclusive sign-up offers to the Bettor Day community. 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