Week 7 · College football — what the books did to the board while you weren't looking
Every Sunday the books rewrite the college board. They hang look-ahead numbers before the weekend, watch everybody play, then take those guesses down and put new ones up. By the time you sit down, you're not watching the market move — you're looking at where it landed.
This week the story is Monday. Sunday they rewrote the board. Monday they agreed on it.
Here's how I measured that. I took every number all four books I track printed at both ends of a twelve-hour window, and counted the ones where all four moved the same way.
- Monday during the day: 112 numbers qualified. 21 moved at all four books together.
- Sunday night into Monday morning: 4.
- Monday night into this morning: 0.
Twenty-one consensus moves in a single business day, and essentially none on either side of it. That's a market making up its mind on a Monday.
The ladder, in raw points: During the day Sunday: 67.5 Overnight into Monday: 21.5 Across Monday: 58.5. Overnight into this morning: 12
The point totals say Sunday and Monday were comparable. The consensus count says Monday was where the books actually agreed. When those two disagree, I'd trust the consensus count — a big Sunday number can be one book moving a lot, and 21 of 112 is four books moving together.
The Weekend Re-Rate
Alabama at Tennessee — DraftKings
| Oct 7 – Friday | Sunday open | Sunday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee +4.5 | +6.5 | +7.5 | +8.5 | +2 |
| Total | 56.5 | 56.5 | 53.5 | 51.5 | −5 |
Alabama lost at home Saturday night and came out of the weekend a four-point bigger favorite.
DraftKings had Tennessee +4.5 at all five checks from October 7 through Friday night. 6.5 Sunday morning. 7.5 Sunday night. 8.5 Monday night. Four points, through seven, and it isn't one shop — FanDuel and BetRivers are both at 8.5 this morning and BetMGM is at 9.
Georgia won at Alabama 20-17. Tennessee won at Arkansas 24-17. Alabama lost. Tennessee won. The number went to Alabama anyway.
The total went the other way: 56.5 from August 5 straight through Sunday morning, then 53.5 Sunday night and 51.5 Monday night. All four books sit at 51.5 right now. On Monday, Kalen DeBoer said leading receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams likely won't play, and Josh Heupel wouldn't name Tennessee's quarterback.
Kansas at Kansas State — DraftKings
| Oct 7 – Friday | Sunday open | Sunday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas State −9.5 | −8.5 | −6.5 | −4.5 | +4 |
| Total | 55.5 | 54.5 | 55.5 | 55.5 | +1 |
Five points off a home favorite in three days, and the total ended up exactly where it started.
DraftKings had Kansas State −9.5 through Friday night. Then 8.5 Sunday morning, 6.5 Sunday night, 6 Monday morning, 4.5 Monday night. All four books say 4.5 this morning, and all four moved it during the day Monday. On the way down it crossed seven and six.
Kansas State lost at home to Houston 35-16. Kansas lost at Utah 41-24. Two losses, and the market took the points off the team that lost at home. There was no injury news and no quarterback change in that window that I could find.
Monday's Moves
Two from Monday's list. Every book moved them inside the same twelve hours, and the news landed the same day.
Wisconsin at UCLA — DraftKings
| Oct 7 – Friday | Sunday open (night) | Monday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 49.5 | 46.5 | 44.5 | 43.5 | −3 |
| Spread | UCLA −3.5 | −3.5 | −2.5 | −2.5 | +1 |
Six points off this total, and the favorite got smaller at the same time.
DraftKings put up 49.5 on October 7 and said it at five straight checks through Friday night — then 46.5 Sunday night, 44.5 Monday night, 43.5 this morning. Monday during the day, all four books took two points off together, and they moved the side too, UCLA from 3 and 3.5 down to 2.5.
UCLA won at Oregon 17-15 to go 5-0. Wisconsin was off. On Monday, On3's Pete Nakos and CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz both reported that quarterback Nico Iamaleava is expected to miss the rest of the season with a knee injury he took in that Oregon win.
This is the cleanest case on the board of news and number arriving together: a 5-0 team loses its quarterback, and the market takes points off both halves on the same day.
Mississippi State at LSU — FanDuel
| Oct 7 – Sunday night | Monday morning | Monday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LSU −11.5 | −12.5 | −14.5 | −14.5 | −3 |
| Total | 59.5 | 60.5 | 58.5 | 58.5 | −2 |
This number did nothing for seven checks and then moved three points in a day, through 14, at every book at once.
FanDuel said −11.5 at seven consecutive checks, October 7 straight through Sunday night. Monday morning: 12.5. Monday night: 14.5. DraftKings, BetMGM and BetRivers all sit at −14 this morning.
LSU lost at Kentucky 35-34. Mississippi State was off.
And here's the part worth sitting with. At his Monday press conference Lane Kiffin talked about losing linebacker Whit Weeks to a broken right leg: "You just don't replace Whit." So LSU lost the game, lost its best linebacker, and became a three-point bigger favorite on the same Monday the news broke.
That's two games on this week's board — this one and Alabama — where a team lost and the number moved toward it. Whatever the books are pricing here, it isn't the result and it isn't the injury.
They Didn't Touch It
Missouri at Ole Miss — Ole Miss −6 at nine of DraftKings' ten checks, and FanDuel hasn't moved off 6.5 since last Thursday. Missouri beat Texas A&M 27-6. Ole Miss won at Vanderbilt 52-17.
And one that only looks untouched: Ohio State at Indiana. FanDuel has had Indiana +3.5 at fourteen of its fifteen checks since October 5. But DraftKings had Indiana a 1.5-point favorite for nine checks in early September, and when the game came back from my feed's September gap, DraftKings had Indiana getting 2.5. It's 3.5 at all four books now. That's a five-point swing, most of it in the month I couldn't see.
The Full Board
Everything that moved a point and a half or more since it opened.
Opened is that book's first print, which for the August and September rows is well before last weekend. Sun. open is that book's first number on Sunday, marked (n) when that was the Sunday-night check. Since Sun. is what it's done after that. Where a game's strip above anchors to a later date than its row here, the strip is showing the week and the row is showing the life of the number.
Reading the move column: for spreads, + means the line moved toward the underdog and − toward the favorite. For totals, + is up and − is down.
Spreads
| Game | Opened | Sun. open | Now | Move | Since Sun. | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska @ Oregon | Oregon −21.5 | −7.0 (n) | −7.5 | +14.0 | −0.5 | DraftKings, Sep 1 |
| Alabama @ Tennessee | Tennessee +1.5 | +6.5 | +8.5 | +7.0 | +2.0 | DraftKings, Aug 5 |
| Auburn @ Georgia | Georgia −16.5 | −18.5 | −20.5 | −4.0 | −2.0 | DraftKings, Aug 5 |
| Mississippi State @ LSU | LSU −10.5 | −11.5 | −14.5 | −4.0 | −3.0 | FanDuel, Oct 6 |
| Colorado State @ Texas State | Texas State −11.5 | −11.5 | −14.5 | −3.0 | −3.0 | FanDuel, Oct 8 |
| Kansas @ Kansas State | Kansas State −7.5 | −8.5 | −4.5 | +3.0 | +4.0 | DraftKings, Sep 1 |
| Louisville @ Syracuse | Syracuse +11.5 | +11.5 | +14.5 | +3.0 | +3.0 | FanDuel, Oct 11 |
| UMass @ Buffalo | Buffalo −3.5 | −3.5 (n) | −6.5 | −3.0 | −3.0 | BetMGM, Oct 11 |
| Washington State @ Oregon State | Oregon State −15.5 | −15.5 | −18.5 | −3.0 | −3.0 | FanDuel, Oct 11 |
| Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston State | Sam Houston +1.5 | +2.5 | −1.5 | −3.0 | −4.0 | FanDuel, Oct 10 |
| Kennesaw State @ Missouri State | Missouri State +5.5 | +3.5 | +3.5 | −2.0 | 0.0 | FanDuel, Oct 10 |
| Ohio State @ Indiana | Indiana +1.5 | +3.5 | +3.5 | +2.0 | 0.0 | FanDuel, Aug 5 |
| Oklahoma State @ Houston | Houston −2.5 | −3.5 | −4.5 | −2.0 | −1.0 | FanDuel, Oct 6 |
| UNLV @ Air Force | Air Force +1.0 | +1.0 (n) | −1.0 | −2.0 | −2.0 | BetMGM, Oct 11 |
| Florida State @ Miami | Miami −19.5 | −21.0 | −21.0 | −1.5 | 0.0 | DraftKings, Oct 7 |
| Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech −8.5 | −8.5 | −10.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 | BetRivers, Oct 11 |
| North Carolina @ Duke | Duke −4.5 | −3.0 | −3.0 | +1.5 | 0.0 | DraftKings, Oct 7 |
Totals
| Game | Opened | Sun. open | Now | Move | Since Sun. | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State @ Michigan | 51.5 | 44.5 | 42.5 | −9.0 | −2.0 | DraftKings, Sep 1 |
| Notre Dame @ BYU | 54.5 | 48.5 | 47.5 | −7.0 | −1.0 | DraftKings, Aug 5 |
| Auburn @ Georgia | 55.5 | 49.5 | 49.5 | −6.0 | 0.0 | DraftKings, Aug 5 |
| Colorado State @ Texas State | 65.5 | 67.5 | 71.5 | +6.0 | +4.0 | FanDuel, Oct 8 |
| Wisconsin @ UCLA | 49.5 | 46.5 (n) | 43.5 | −6.0 | −3.0 | DraftKings, Oct 7 |
| Alabama @ Tennessee | 56.5 | 56.5 | 51.5 | −5.0 | −5.0 | DraftKings, Aug 5 |
| TCU @ Baylor | 52.5 | 52.5 | 48.0 | −4.5 | −4.5 | BetRivers, Oct 11 |
| Oklahoma State @ Houston | 57.5 | 59.5 | 61.5 | +4.0 | +2.0 | FanDuel, Oct 6 |
| Appalachian State @ Coastal Carolina | 53.5 | 53.5 | 50.5 | −3.0 | −3.0 | FanDuel, Oct 11 |
| Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion | 50.5 | 50.5 | 47.5 | −3.0 | −3.0 | FanDuel, Oct 11 |
| Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech | 53.5 | 53.5 | 56.5 | +3.0 | +3.0 | BetRivers, Oct 11 |
| Rutgers @ Maryland | 59.5 | 59.5 | 56.5 | −3.0 | −3.0 | FanDuel, Oct 11 |
| Virginia @ SMU | 54.5 | 54.5 | 51.5 | −3.0 | −3.0 | BetRivers, Oct 11 |
| Charlotte @ Temple | 49.5 | 49.5 (n) | 47.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | BetMGM, Oct 11 |
| East Carolina @ UAB | 49.5 | 49.5 (n) | 47.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | BetMGM, Oct 11 |
| Florida @ Texas | 54.5 | 53.5 | 52.5 | −2.0 | −1.0 | FanDuel, Oct 6 |
| Fresno State @ San Diego State | 44.5 | 44.5 | 46.5 | +2.0 | +2.0 | FanDuel, Oct 11 |
| Kentucky @ Oklahoma | 41.5 | 42.5 | 43.5 | +2.0 | +1.0 | DraftKings, Oct 7 |
| Ohio State @ Indiana | 48.5 | 48.5 | 50.5 | +2.0 | +2.0 | FanDuel, Aug 5 |
| Pittsburgh @ Boston College | 45.5 | 45.5 | 43.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | FanDuel, Oct 10 |
| San Jose State @ UTEP | 48.5 | 48.5 (n) | 46.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | DraftKings, Oct 11 |
| UMass @ Buffalo | 43.5 | 43.5 (n) | 41.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | BetMGM, Oct 11 |
| Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston State | 50.5 | 50.5 | 52.5 | +2.0 | +2.0 | FanDuel, Oct 10 |
| Arizona State @ Texas Tech | 50.5 | 50.5 | 49.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 | BetRivers, Oct 11 |
How I Measure This
Every number here is one book against itself — its own look-ahead, its own opener, its own price today. Averaging books that started in different places invents movement that never happened, so I don't do it. Where a game leans on one book, I name the book.
I also throw out anything that's just one book posting a number and correcting itself overnight with nothing else confirming it. That's not a market moving, that's a guy fixing a typo. Fifteen of those came out this week.
Saturday is when I tell you what I think of these numbers. Tuesday is just the tape.
Lines are US-book prices captured Tuesday morning and they'll keep moving. Shop your number.
The Tuesday Number runs every week of the season, free. Our CFB Trench Report grades every matchup in the country and publishes the week's Top 5 Mismatches — included with Insider. Premium adds the picks: every play from every Bettor Day contributor, in one dashboard. Compare tiers →
Jake Novakovich is a contributor to Bettor Day. You can follow him on X @CashOnSaturdays