Week 5 · College football — what the books did to the board while you weren't looking
Every Sunday the books rewrite the college board. They hang look-ahead numbers before the weekend, watch everybody play, then take those guesses down and put new ones up. By the time you sit down, you're not watching the market move — you're looking at where it landed.
Last week I told you the rewrite happened Sunday, in daylight. It did again: 79 points moved between the Sunday-morning check and the Sunday-night check. But 59.5 more moved during the day Monday, and last week had a big Monday too. The two overnights on either side of Monday? 32 points, combined.
So I went and asked the question I should have asked last week. Are those two moves the same move?
They're not.
Fourteen of this week's games had a number before last weekend kicked off. Those are the big ones — the games a book is willing to price early. From Saturday morning through Sunday night, those fourteen moved 63 points. From Sunday night to this morning they've moved 18. If you looked at one of those Sunday night, you'd already seen most of it.
The other 42 games didn't get a number until Sunday. Those moved 47 points Sunday and 46.5 Monday. They weren't finished Sunday night. They were just getting started.
Here's where the big board moved.
The Weekend Re-Rate
Vanderbilt at Georgia — DraftKings
| Before the weekend | Sunday open | Sunday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 57.5 | 55.5 | 52.5 | 50.5 | −5 |
| Spread | Georgia −23.5 | −24.5 | −24.5 | −24.5 | 0 |
A touchdown came out of this game and the spread barely noticed.
DraftKings hung 57.5 last Wednesday and left it there for eight straight checks. Then: 55.5 Sunday morning. 52.5 Sunday night. 51.5 Monday morning. 50.5 Monday night. Four checks in a row, four lower numbers. Seven points.
What the book watched: Georgia beat Oklahoma 41-13. Vanderbilt went to Auburn and lost 21-15.
And the side? Georgia −23.5 before the weekend, −24.5 Sunday morning, and it hasn't moved since. One point. The book still has Georgia winning by more than three touchdowns. It just took one of the touchdowns out of the game.
If this sounds familiar, it's three weeks running. Syracuse-Pitt two weeks ago. Oklahoma-Georgia last week. Now this. Total gutted, spread left alone. All four books I track have this total between 50.5 and 51.5, so it isn't one shop's opinion.
Penn State at Northwestern — DraftKings
| Before the weekend | Sunday open | Sunday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern +7 | +4.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 | −2 |
| Total | 48.5 | 48.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 | −3 |
Both of these teams lost. The number moved four and a half points anyway.
Penn State lost at home to Wisconsin 24-20. (Wisconsin +10 one of our Free Play write-ups) Northwestern lost at Indiana on Friday night 29-23. DraftKings had Northwestern getting seven all last week — six checks, never moved. Sunday morning it was 4.5. Sunday night 2.5, and that's where all four books have it now.
That's a game that went from a touchdown to inside a field goal without either team winning, and it went through three to get there. The total came with it: 48.5 down to 45.5, all of it between Sunday morning and Sunday night.
I said it last week about Texas A&M and LSU and it's the same lesson. Losing isn't the input. How you lost is.
Kentucky at South Carolina — DraftKings
| Sep 23 | Sunday open | Sunday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina −7 | −3.5 | −3 | −2.5 | +1 |
| Total | 49.5 | 51.5 | 53.5 | 53.5 | +2 |
Both halves moved, and they moved apart.
South Carolina was laying seven when DraftKings first posted it last Wednesday, and six by Thursday night. Then South Carolina went to Alabama and lost 49-18, and Kentucky beat South Alabama 45-21. Sunday morning: 3.5. Sunday night: 3. Monday night: 2.5.
Seven down to two and a half, straight through three, in thirteen checks.
The total went up while the side came down. 49.5 before the weekend, 51.5 Sunday morning, 53.5 Sunday night, and it's sat there since. Four points.
Auburn at Tennessee — DraftKings
| Saturday morning | Sunday open | Sunday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 58.5 | 56.5 | 54.5 | 54.5 | −2 |
| Spread | Tennessee −7.5 | −7.5 | −7 | −7 | +0.5 |
Two teams, two games, 73 points between them.
Tennessee lost at home to Texas 20-17. Auburn beat Vanderbilt 21-15. DraftKings had this total at 58.5 Saturday morning, 56.5 by Saturday night, 54.5 Sunday night. It dipped to 53.5 Monday night and came back to 54.5 this morning.
The side: Tennessee −7.5 for twelve straight checks, −7 since Sunday night. Half a point in sixteen checks while the total dropped four.
BYU at TCU — DraftKings
| Before the weekend | Sunday open | Sunday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 52.5 | 52.5 | 48.5 | 48.5 | −4 |
| Spread | TCU +5.5 | +6.5 | +6 | +6.5 | 0 |
Only one of these teams played.
BYU was off. TCU went to UCF and lost 21-13. That was enough. DraftKings sat at 52.5 for twelve straight checks, right through Sunday morning, then took four points off by Sunday night. It ticked up a point Monday morning and came right back.
The side went from TCU +5.5 to +6.5. One point. So one night of offense moved the total four times as far as it moved the spread.
One That Didn't Wait For The Weekend
Miami at Clemson — DraftKings
| Aug 5 – Sep 4 | Sep 23 | Sunday open | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson +7 | +17.5 | +18.5 | +16.5 | −2 |
The biggest move on this week's board had nothing to do with last weekend.
DraftKings posted Clemson as a seven-point home underdog on August 5. I checked it twenty-four times through September 4. Seven every time. The next night Clemson went to LSU and lost 51-10.
When it came back on September 23, Clemson was getting 17.5. That's ten and a half points, and I can't tell you which day they moved — only that it happened somewhere in those nineteen days.
What last weekend did to it is almost nothing. Miami beat Central Michigan 52-3. Clemson won at Cal on Friday night 24-10. The number went to 18.5 Sunday morning, back to 17.5 Sunday night, down to 16.5 Monday night. One point, net.
So when you see this one on somebody's list of the week's biggest line moves, know what you're looking at. That isn't a weekend re-rate. That's an August number that finally got taken down.
Monday Was The Small Board's Turn
These two didn't have a number until Sunday. No look-ahead, nothing to re-rate. What you're seeing is the opener, and then the first full day of people betting into it.
Old Dominion at Georgia State — FanDuel
| Sunday open | Sunday night | Monday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia State +2.5 | +1.5 | −1.5 | −1.5 | −4 |
| Total | 51.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 | 0 |
The favorite changed on a Monday.
FanDuel opened Georgia State as a two-and-a-half-point home underdog Sunday morning and had it at 1.5 Sunday night. Monday morning, still 1.5. Monday night Georgia State was laying 1.5.
This one wasn't one shop. Sunday night all four books had Georgia State getting points. Monday night all four had them giving them.
Both teams had already played. Old Dominion lost at home to James Madison 46-20. Georgia State beat Northern Illinois 35-14. The books watched that and still opened Old Dominion as the favorite. It took a day of betting to turn it over. The total never moved — 51.5 at FanDuel on all five checks.
Bowling Green at Miami (OH) — BetMGM
| Sunday open (night) | Monday morning | Monday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 46.5 | 45.5 | 43.5 | 42.5 | −4 |
Four points off a total in a day and a half.
BetMGM opened 46.5 Sunday night. 45.5 Monday morning. 43.5 Monday night. 42.5 this morning. Four checks, four numbers, every one lower than the last. The other three books came down with it, and all four sit between 42.5 and 43.5.
Bowling Green lost at home to South Florida on Saturday, 14-6. Twenty points in the whole game. The opener went up after that score was final, and the number still had four more points to give.
They Didn't Touch It
Three numbers went all the way through the weekend and came out where they started. I find these about as interesting as the big moves.
Washington at USC — USC −10. Eight checks before the weekend, ten every time. Then USC lost at home to Oregon by 14, Washington lost at home to Minnesota by 3, and Sunday night DraftKings put it right back up at ten. It's 9.5 now. USC was in this column last week because its number changed hands. This week it lost by two touchdowns and the number sat still.
Ohio State at Iowa — Iowa +14. Sixteen checks since last Wednesday. It's been 14.5, it's been 13.5, and it's 14 this morning. Iowa won at Michigan. Ohio State beat Illinois by 23. Fourteen.
Auburn at Tennessee — the side, as above. Half a point in sixteen checks while four came off the total.
A whole weekend of football happened in between. The book watched all of it and said: we had that one right.
How Last Week's Moves Did
Last week I put six moves in front of you. Then they played the games. Four of the six moved the right way.
The two that didn't: Oklahoma-Georgia had four points taken off the total and the game went over both numbers, and West Virginia went from underdog to favorite and lost at home by seventeen.
And one that didn't hold. Mississippi State was 6.5 when I wrote to you last Tuesday and 3.5 at the last check before kickoff. Then they won by seven.
| Game | Market | Before | Last Tuesday | Closed | Final | The move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon @ USC | Spread | USC −1.5 | Oregon −3 | Oregon −3.5 | Oregon by 14 | Right way |
| Oklahoma @ Georgia | Total | 47.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 54 | Wrong way |
| South Carolina @ Alabama | Total | 48.5 | 54.5 | 53.5 | 67 | Right way |
| Missouri @ Mississippi State | Spread | Miss State −1.5 | −6.5 | −3.5 | Miss State by 7 | Right way |
| Oklahoma State @ West Virginia | Spread | West Virginia +2.5 | −1.5 | −1.5 | Oklahoma State by 17 | Wrong way |
| Texas A&M @ LSU | Spread | LSU −5.5 | −8.5 | −8.5 | LSU by 29 | Right way |
All six at DraftKings. "Closed" is the last number I saw before kickoff, inside two hours every time.
The Full Board
Everything that moved a point and a half or more since it opened. No commentary, just where the numbers went.
Where a game only shows up from September 27, that's the first time that book posted a price on it. The four rows dated August 5 are the opposite case: most of that movement happened before last weekend. Sun. open is that book's first number on Sunday; Since Sun. is what it's done after that.
Reading the move column: for spreads, + means the line moved toward the underdog and − toward the favorite. For totals, + is up and − is down.
Spreads
| Game | Opened | Sun. open | Now | Move | Since Sun. | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami @ Clemson | Clemson +7.0 | +18.5 | +16.5 | +9.5 | −2.0 | DraftKings, Aug 5 |
| West Virginia @ Iowa State | Iowa State +2.5 | +2.5 | −2.5 | −5.0 | −5.0 | FanDuel, Sep 27 |
| Kentucky @ South Carolina | South Carolina −7.0 | −3.5 | −2.5 | +4.5 | +1.0 | DraftKings, Sep 23 |
| Penn State @ Northwestern | Northwestern +7.0 | +4.5 | +2.5 | −4.5 | −2.0 | DraftKings, Sep 23 |
| Marshall @ James Madison | James Madison −14.5 | −14.5 | −18.5 | −4.0 | −4.0 | FanDuel, Sep 27 |
| Old Dominion @ Georgia State | Georgia State +2.5 | +2.5 | −1.5 | −4.0 | −4.0 | FanDuel, Sep 27 |
| Alabama @ Mississippi State | Miss State +3.0 | +4.5 | +6.0 | +3.0 | +1.5 | DraftKings, Sep 23 |
| Michigan @ Minnesota | Minnesota +8.5 | +6.0 | +5.5 | −3.0 | −0.5 | DraftKings, Sep 23 |
| Toledo @ Ball State | Ball State +16.5 | +16.5 | +19.5 | +3.0 | +3.0 | FanDuel, Sep 27 |
| Notre Dame @ North Carolina | North Carolina +23.5 | +21.5 | +21.0 | −2.5 | −0.5 | DraftKings, Aug 5 |
| Florida @ Missouri | Missouri +2.5 | +5.5 | +4.5 | +2.0 | −1.0 | DraftKings, Sep 23 |
| Louisville @ NC State | NC State +7.5 | +6.5 | +5.5 | −2.0 | −1.0 | DraftKings, Sep 23 |
| Oregon State @ Colorado State | Colorado State +4.5 | +4.5 | +6.5 | +2.0 | +2.0 | FanDuel, Sep 27 |
| Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech −5.5 | −6.0 | −3.5 | +2.0 | +2.5 | DraftKings, Sep 23 |
| Texas Tech @ Colorado | Colorado +15.5 | +15.5 | +13.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | BetRivers, Sep 27 |
| Army @ Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech +3.5 | +3.5 | +2.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 | BetMGM, Sep 27 |
| Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) | Miami (OH) −14.5 | −14.5 | −13.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 | BetMGM, Sep 27 |
| Cincinnati @ Arizona | Arizona −8.5 | −8.5 | −7.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 | DraftKings, Sep 27 |
| North Texas @ Tulsa | Tulsa −2.5 | −2.5 | −1.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 | BetRivers, Sep 27 |
Totals
| Game | Opened | Sun. open | Now | Move | Since Sun. | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame @ North Carolina | 55.5 | 50.5 | 47.5 | −8.0 | −3.0 | DraftKings, Aug 5 |
| Miami @ Clemson | 55.5 | 51.5 | 48.5 | −7.0 | −3.0 | DraftKings, Aug 5 |
| Vanderbilt @ Georgia | 57.5 | 55.5 | 50.5 | −7.0 | −5.0 | DraftKings, Sep 23 |
| BYU @ TCU | 52.5 | 52.5 | 48.5 | −4.0 | −4.0 | DraftKings, Sep 23 |
| Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) | 46.5 | 46.5 | 42.5 | −4.0 | −4.0 | BetMGM, Sep 27 |
| Kentucky @ South Carolina | 49.5 | 51.5 | 53.5 | +4.0 | +2.0 | DraftKings, Sep 23 |
| Oregon State @ Colorado State | 58.5 | 58.5 | 62.5 | +4.0 | +4.0 | FanDuel, Sep 27 |
| Auburn @ Tennessee | 57.5 | 56.5 | 54.5 | −3.0 | −2.0 | DraftKings, Sep 23 |
| Baylor @ Arizona State | 51.5 | 51.5 | 48.5 | −3.0 | −3.0 | FanDuel, Sep 27 |
| Florida @ Missouri | 53.5 | 56.5 | 56.5 | +3.0 | 0.0 | DraftKings, Sep 23 |
| Penn State @ Northwestern | 48.5 | 48.5 | 45.5 | −3.0 | −3.0 | DraftKings, Sep 23 |
| UL Monroe @ South Alabama | 54.5 | 54.5 | 57.5 | +3.0 | +3.0 | FanDuel, Sep 27 |
| Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State | 53.5 | 53.5 | 56.5 | +3.0 | +3.0 | BetMGM, Sep 27 |
| Alabama @ Mississippi State | 58.5 | 59.5 | 60.5 | +2.0 | +1.0 | DraftKings, Sep 23 |
| Boston College @ SMU | 57.5 | 57.5 | 55.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | FanDuel, Sep 27 |
| Marshall @ James Madison | 56.5 | 56.5 | 54.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | FanDuel, Sep 27 |
| Navy @ Air Force | 48.5 | 48.5 | 46.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | FanDuel, Sep 27 |
| Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech | 56.5 | 53.5 | 54.5 | −2.0 | +1.0 | DraftKings, Sep 23 |
| Purdue @ Illinois | 59.5 | 59.5 | 61.5 | +2.0 | +2.0 | FanDuel, Sep 27 |
| Syracuse @ UConn | 52.5 | 52.5 | 50.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | FanDuel, Sep 27 |
| Temple @ South Florida | 52.5 | 52.5 | 50.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | FanDuel, Sep 27 |
| UTSA @ Rice | 53.5 | 53.5 | 55.5 | +2.0 | +2.0 | FanDuel, Sep 27 |
How I Measure This
Every number here is one book against itself — its own look-ahead, its own opener, its own price today. Averaging books that started in different places invents movement that never happened, so I don't do it. Where a game leans on one book, I name the book.
I also throw out anything that's just one book posting a number and correcting itself overnight with nothing else confirming it. That's not a market moving, that's a guy fixing a typo. Fifteen of those came out this week.
Saturday is when I tell you what I think of these numbers. Tuesday is just the tape.
Lines are US-book prices captured Tuesday morning and they'll keep moving. Shop your number.
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Jake Novakovich is a contributor to Bettor Day. You can follow him on X @CashOnSaturdays