Week 6 · College football — what the books did to the board while you weren't looking
Every Sunday the books rewrite the college board. They hang look-ahead numbers before the weekend, watch everybody play, then take those guesses down and put new ones up. By the time you sit down, you're not watching the market move — you're looking at where it landed.
Last week I split the board in two. The games that had a number before the weekend got re-rated Sunday and were mostly done by Sunday night. The games that didn't get a number until Sunday did as much moving on Monday as they did on Sunday. One market, two different clocks.
One week is a coincidence. So I ran it again.
Thirteen of this week's games had a number up before last Saturday kicked off — the big ones, the games a book will price early. From Saturday morning through Sunday night those thirteen moved 40.5 points. From Sunday night to this morning they've moved 11.5.
The other 45 didn't get a number until Sunday — 26 of them Sunday morning, 19 not until Sunday night. The 26 that were up in the morning moved 52.5 points by Sunday night. From Sunday night to this morning, all 45 together moved 55.5 more.
Two weeks running, same split. The big games are mostly finished by Sunday night. The small ones are just getting started.
The ladder, plainly: During the day Sunday: 84.5 points / Overnight into Monday: 11 / Across Monday: 56 / Overnight into this morning: 12
Here's where the big board moved.
The Weekend Re-Rate
Georgia at Alabama — DraftKings
| Aug 5 – Saturday | Sunday open | Sunday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama +3 | +2.5 | −1.5 | −1.5 | −4 |
| Total | 54.5 | 56.5 | 55.5 | 55.5 | −1 |
The favorite changed hands on the biggest game of the week, and it took one Sunday to do it.
DraftKings put this up on August 5 with Alabama getting three at home. Alabama won that game 56-23 as a 5.5-point favorite. Georgia beat Vanderbilt 38-14 as a 25.5-point favorite. One team did about what the number said. The other beat it by 27.5.
By DraftKings' six o'clock check Saturday it was 2.5, and that's what it said Sunday morning. Sunday night: Alabama −1.5. Four and a half points, through three, and the favorite on the other side.
This wasn't one shop. Sunday morning all four books I track had Georgia favored. Sunday night three of them had Alabama, and by Monday night BetRivers had come over too.
FanDuel actually got there first, then changed its mind. It flipped the game to Alabama on Saturday afternoon, flipped it back to Georgia by Saturday night, and flipped it to Alabama again on Sunday. Three flips between Saturday lunch and Sunday night, on the biggest game on the board.
I went looking for news in that Sunday window and found nothing on either quarterback. Georgia receiver Thomas Blackshear left the Vanderbilt game with a shoulder injury, and on Monday Kirby Smart called it an upper body injury. The other thing that showed up Sunday was weather — the National Hurricane Center was tracking a system in the Gulf, and Alabama forecasters were already talking about rain for Saturday night.
The total hasn't done much with that. 54.5 before the weekend, 56.5 by Saturday evening, 55.5 since Sunday night.
USC at Penn State — DraftKings
| Before the weekend | Sunday open | Sunday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State −1.5 | +2.5 | −1.5 | −1.5 | −4 |
| Total | 58.5 | 56.5 | 54.5 | 54.5 | −2 |
Penn State lost by 21 on Friday night. By Sunday morning it was an underdog at home. By Sunday night it was the favorite again, at the exact number it was in August.
DraftKings opened Penn State −1.5 on August 5, and that's what it said through last Friday morning. Then Penn State went to Northwestern and lost 34-13. USC beat Washington 25-21 on Saturday night.
Sunday morning, DraftKings had USC −2.5. FanDuel opened USC −1.5. BetRivers had USC −1. Three books, all on USC. Twelve hours later every book I track had Penn State favored again — −1.5 at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM, −0.5 at BetRivers.
I looked for what changed between those two checks and came up empty: no injury to either quarterback, no change at quarterback, no coaching move, no suspension. After Friday's loss, Matt Campbell said there was "really no" thought of pulling Rocco Becht.
The total didn't come back. 58.5 before the weekend, 56.5 Sunday morning, 54.5 Sunday night, and 54.5 at all four books this morning. Four points gone while the side went around the block and ended up where it started.
Last week I showed you Northwestern going from getting seven to getting 2.5 against Penn State. Northwestern won by 21.
Iowa State at BYU — DraftKings
| Before the weekend | Sunday open | Sunday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BYU −14.5 | −11.5 | −10.5 | −10.5 | +1 |
| Total | 50.5 | 49.5 | 48.5 | 46.5 | −3 |
Iowa State's last game had 87 points in it. This total went down four.
DraftKings posted BYU −14.5 last Wednesday night and left it there for eight checks. Iowa State beat West Virginia 45-42 at noon Saturday. BYU won at TCU that night, 17-10. Sunday morning: 11.5. Sunday night: 10.5, at all four books. That's through 14 and most of the way to 10.
The total went with it, and it took two days. 50.5 all last week. 49.5 Sunday morning, 48.5 Sunday night, and then two more came off during the day Monday. All four books sit at 46.5 this morning.
There's news on BYU's side. Running back LJ Martin and linebacker Isaiah Glasker both left the TCU game in the first half Saturday night and didn't come back. On Monday afternoon Kalani Sitake listed both as doubtful for Friday. Neither quarterback was hurt.
Last week I showed you BYU's total at TCU coming down four. That game went 27. Now they've taken four off this one, too.
South Carolina at Florida — DraftKings
| Before the weekend | Sunday open | Sunday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 57.5 | 58.5 | 62.5 | 62.5 | +4 |
| Spread | Florida −14.5 | −14 | −14 | −12.5 | +1.5 |
Last week I put Kentucky at South Carolina in front of you. Kentucky won it 35-34. Sixty-nine points. Both teams' next totals have gone up at least four.
This is South Carolina's. DraftKings had it at 57.5 from the night it went up, last Wednesday, through Saturday — eight checks. 58.5 Sunday morning. 62.5 Sunday night. Four points in one Sunday, and by Sunday night every book I track was at 61.5 or 62.5. It dipped to 61.5 Monday night, and DraftKings put it back at 62.5 this morning. The other three books are at 61.5.
Florida's half of it: the Gators lost at Missouri 45-17. Sixty-two points in that one.
The side moved later and less. Florida −14.5 before the weekend, −14 all day Sunday, −12.5 Monday night. Two points, and the last point and a half came Monday. The other three books have it at 13 or 13.5.
The news on South Carolina's side, all of it Sunday night: Shane Beamer said there was no update on edge rusher Dylan Stewart, who sat out the Kentucky game under suspension, and starting nickel Quay'Sheed Scott, who went to the hospital after that game, has been released. Beamer said more tests would decide whether Scott plays. No quarterback injury on either side.
LSU at Kentucky — DraftKings
| Before the weekend | Sunday open | Sunday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 50.5 | 53.5 | 53.5 | 54.5 | +1 |
And this is Kentucky's. LSU beat McNeese 63-14 Saturday night. DraftKings had this total at 50.5 at its last Saturday check, around lunchtime, and 53.5 at its first Sunday check. Three points between Saturday lunch and Sunday morning. It's 54.5 now at DraftKings, and the other three books are between 54 and 54.5.
The news around that move: LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt played the first half against McNeese on a hamstring injury, and Lane Kiffin said afterward he was better than a week ago but still limited. Kentucky lost running back Jason Patterson to a quad injury at South Carolina. Kiffin's Monday press conference had nothing new on Leavitt.
So that's one 69-point game, and both teams' next totals went up four or more. Iowa State played in an 87-point game and its next total went the other way. Last week's points aren't the input either. It's how they got there.
One That Didn't Wait For The Weekend
Oklahoma vs. Texas — FanDuel
| Aug 5 – Sep 5 | Sep 28 | Sunday open | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 47.5 | 42.5 | 40.5 | 39.5 | −1 |
| Spread | Texas −6.5 | −9.5 | −8.5 | −7.5 | +1 |
Eight points off a total, and most of it happened where I couldn't see it.
FanDuel posted this on August 5: 47.5, Texas −6.5. I checked it through September 5. Same two numbers every time.
Then the same thing happened that happened with Miami-Clemson last week. When FanDuel came back on September 28, the total was 42.5 and Texas was laying 9.5. Five points off the total and three onto the spread, somewhere in twenty-three days, and I can't tell you which day.
Here's what happened in those twenty-three days. Oklahoma played three games and scored 10, 14 and 13: a loss at Michigan, a win over New Mexico, and a loss at Georgia. John Mateer turned it over in all three, and after the Georgia game Brent Venables said benching him had come up at halftime. Texas won every game it played, and nobody scored more than 23 on it.
Here's the part I can tell you about. Neither team played last weekend — both were off. FanDuel had the total at 41.5 Thursday, 40.5 Saturday morning and 39.5 Sunday night. Texas went from −9.5 Friday night to −7.5 Sunday night. Two points off the total and two off the spread, on a weekend with no football in it for either team.
The news over the bye was thin. Venables said last Wednesday that Mateer is still his starter. Steve Sarkisian said Monday that Texas is healthier than it was a week ago. The Dallas forecast for Saturday is sunny.
So when you see Oklahoma-Texas on somebody's list of the week's biggest moves, know what you're looking at. It isn't a weekend re-rate. It's an August number that came down in September, and the last two points came off during a bye.
Monday Was The Small Board's Turn
These two didn't have a number until Sunday morning. No look-ahead, nothing to re-rate — just the opener, and then the first full day of people betting into it.
Florida State at Louisville — DraftKings
| Sunday open | Sunday night | Monday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisville −6.5 | −5.5 | −3.5 | −3.5 | +3 |
DraftKings opened Louisville −6.5 Sunday morning. 5.5 Sunday night. 4.5 Monday morning. 3.5 Monday night. Three points, one at a time, and the other three books came with it. This morning it's 3.5 at three of the four books and 4 at BetRivers.
What the books had already watched: Louisville lost at NC State 31-28, its second straight three-point loss after Wake Forest beat it 30-27 the week before. Florida State beat Virginia 38-7.
There's a quarterback in this one too. Louisville's Lincoln Kienholz started at NC State on a heavily taped ankle, and afterward Jeff Brohm said he hadn't expected to have him at all. On Monday morning Brohm said they'd get Kienholz as healthy as they can on a short week. This one's a Friday game.
Washington State at Utah State — FanDuel
| Sunday open | Sunday night | Monday night | Now | Since Sun. open | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State −3.5 | −3.5 | −5.5 | −5.5 | −2 |
Every book moved it Monday, and every book landed on the same number.
Sunday night the four books I track had Utah State laying anywhere from 2.5 to 4. Monday night all four said 5.5. FanDuel opened it at 3.5 Sunday morning, still had 3.5 Sunday night, then 4.5 Monday morning and 5.5 Monday night. Still 5.5 everywhere this morning.
Both of these teams lost Saturday. Washington State lost at home to Fresno State 26-6. Utah State lost at Boise State 37-18.
Monday is when the news came, too. Washington State coach Kirby Moore said Monday afternoon that he's taking over the play-calling himself and that the quarterback job is open: "Everyone's gonna get reps." On the other side, Bronco Mendenhall wouldn't name Utah State's starter. All four books moved this number between Monday morning and Monday night.
They Didn't Touch It
Two this week.
Iowa at Washington — the total. 41.5 when DraftKings posted it last Wednesday, and 41.5 at all thirteen of its checks. BetRivers the same, eleven checks. Iowa lost at home to Ohio State 31-14. Washington lost at USC 25-21. Forty-five points and forty-six points. The spread moved a point and a half toward Washington. The total didn't move at all, and it's 41.5 at all four books this morning.
USC at Penn State — the side, as above. −1.5 in August, −1.5 this morning. It just went around the block on Sunday to get there.
A whole weekend of football happened in between. The book watched all of it and said: we had that one right.
How Last Week's Moves Did
Last week I put eight moves in front of you. Then they played the games. All eight moved the right way.
But two of them were middles, and that's worth knowing. The early money got paid. The money that followed the move to the closing number didn't.
Vanderbilt-Georgia: under 57.5 before the weekend was a winner, because the game went 52. Under 50.5 at the close was a loser. Same game, same side. Bowling Green-Miami was the same story — under 46.5 won, under 41.5 at the close lost, and the game went 44. Both of those were already past where the game landed by the time I showed them to you last Tuesday.
The other six cashed at the closing number too.
And one that came partway back before kickoff. Clemson was getting 16.5 when I wrote to you last Tuesday and 14 at the last check before kickoff. Miami won by 28.
| Game | Market | Before | Last Tuesday | Closed | Final | The move | At the close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt @ Georgia | Total | 57.5 | 50.5 | 50.5 | 52 | Right way | Lost — middle |
| Penn State @ Northwestern | Spread | Northwestern +7 | +2.5 | +2.5 | Northwestern by 21 | Right way | Won |
| Kentucky @ South Carolina | Spread | South Carolina −7 | −2.5 | −2.5 | Kentucky by 1 | Right way | Won |
| Auburn @ Tennessee | Total | 58.5 | 54.5 | 54.5 | 38 | Right way | Won |
| BYU @ TCU | Total | 52.5 | 48.5 | 48.5 | 27 | Right way | Won |
| Miami @ Clemson | Spread | Clemson +7 | +16.5 | +14 | Miami by 28 | Right way | Won |
| Old Dominion @ Georgia State | Spread | Georgia State +2.5 | −1.5 | −2.5 | Georgia State by 32 | Right way | Won |
| Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) | Total | 46.5 | 42.5 | 41.5 | 44 | Right way | Lost — middle |
Same books as last week's cards: DraftKings for the first six, FanDuel for Old Dominion-Georgia State, BetMGM for Bowling Green-Miami. "Closed" is the last number I saw before kickoff — inside two and a half hours for seven of the eight. Penn State-Northwestern kicked Friday night, and my last look before that was Friday morning. "At the close" is the side the books moved toward, taken at that closing number.
The Full Board
Everything that moved a point and a half or more since it opened. No commentary, just where the numbers went.
Where a game only shows up from October 4, that's the first time that book posted a price on it. The rows dated August 5 are the opposite case: most of that movement happened in September, before last weekend. Sun. open is that book's first number on Sunday, marked (n) when that was the Sunday-night check; Since Sun. is what it's done after that.
Reading the move column: for spreads, + means the line moved toward the underdog and − toward the favorite. For totals, + is up and − is down.
Spreads
| Game | Opened | Sun. open | Now | Move | Since Sun. | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia @ Alabama | Alabama +2.5 | +1.5 | −1.5 | −4.0 | −3.0 | FanDuel, Aug 5 |
| Iowa State @ BYU | BYU −14.5 | −11.5 | −10.5 | +4.0 | +1.0 | DraftKings, Sep 30 |
| Washington State @ Utah State | Utah State −1.5 | −1.5 | −5.5 | −4.0 | −4.0 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Virginia Tech @ California | California +12.5 | +12.5 | +9.0 | −3.5 | −3.5 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Air Force @ Northern Illinois | N. Illinois +10.5 | +10.5 (n) | +7.5 | −3.0 | −3.0 | BetMGM, Oct 4 |
| Missouri State @ Western Kentucky | W. Kentucky +0.5 | +0.5 | −2.5 | −3.0 | −3.0 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Ball State @ Northwestern | Northwestern −34.5 | −34.5 | −37.0 | −2.5 | −2.5 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Florida State @ Louisville | Louisville −6.5 | −6.5 | −4.0 | +2.5 | +2.5 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Hawai'i @ Arizona State | Arizona State −18.5 | −18.5 | −21.0 | −2.5 | −2.5 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Indiana @ Nebraska | Nebraska +9.5 | +8.5 | +7.0 | −2.5 | −1.5 | DraftKings, Sep 30 |
| Boise State @ Fresno State | Fresno State +8.5 | +8.5 | +6.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| LSU @ Kentucky | Kentucky +10.5 | +9.5 | +8.5 | −2.0 | −1.0 | DraftKings, Sep 30 |
| Minnesota @ Purdue | Purdue +4.5 | +4.5 | +2.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| New Mexico State @ Florida International | FIU −4.5 | −3.5 | −6.5 | −2.0 | −3.0 | FanDuel, Oct 2 |
| South Carolina @ Florida | Florida −14.5 | −14.0 | −12.5 | +2.0 | +1.5 | DraftKings, Sep 30 |
| Southern Miss @ Troy | Troy −8.5 | −9.5 | −10.5 | −2.0 | −1.0 | DraftKings, Sep 30 |
| Texas A&M @ Missouri | Missouri −1.5 | −3.0 | −3.5 | −2.0 | −0.5 | DraftKings, Sep 30 |
| Iowa @ Washington | Washington −1.5 | −2.5 | −3.0 | −1.5 | −0.5 | DraftKings, Sep 30 |
| South Alabama @ Arkansas State | Arkansas State −1.0 | −1.0 | +0.5 | +1.5 | +1.5 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Stanford @ Notre Dame | Notre Dame −36.0 | −36.0 | −37.5 | −1.5 | −1.5 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
Totals
| Game | Opened | Sun. open | Now | Move | Since Sun. | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma vs. Texas | 47.5 | 40.5 | 39.5 | −8.0 | −1.0 | FanDuel, Aug 5 |
| South Florida @ UTSA | 58.5 | 58.5 | 51.5 | −7.0 | −7.0 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Georgia @ Alabama | 49.5 | 57.5 | 55.5 | +6.0 | −2.0 | FanDuel, Aug 5 |
| LSU @ Kentucky | 49.5 | 53.5 | 54.5 | +5.0 | +1.0 | DraftKings, Sep 30 |
| South Carolina @ Florida | 57.5 | 58.5 | 62.5 | +5.0 | +4.0 | DraftKings, Sep 30 |
| Tulsa @ Navy | 53.5 | 53.5 | 48.5 | −5.0 | −5.0 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Iowa State @ BYU | 50.5 | 49.5 | 46.5 | −4.0 | −3.0 | DraftKings, Sep 30 |
| Arizona @ West Virginia | 57.5 | 57.5 | 61.0 | +3.5 | +3.5 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| New Mexico State @ Florida International | 50.5 | 47.5 | 47.5 | −3.0 | 0.0 | FanDuel, Oct 2 |
| Washington State @ Utah State | 46.5 | 46.5 | 43.5 | −3.0 | −3.0 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Houston @ Kansas State | 53.5 | 53.5 | 56.0 | +2.5 | +2.5 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Minnesota @ Purdue | 48.5 | 48.5 | 51.0 | +2.5 | +2.5 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| UCF @ Oklahoma State | 51.5 | 51.5 | 54.0 | +2.5 | +2.5 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Virginia Tech @ California | 51.5 | 51.5 | 54.0 | +2.5 | +2.5 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Coastal Carolina @ Marshall | 56.5 | 56.5 (n) | 58.5 | +2.0 | +2.0 | BetMGM, Oct 4 |
| Florida State @ Louisville | 57.5 | 57.5 | 59.5 | +2.0 | +2.0 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Illinois @ Michigan State | 51.5 | 51.5 | 49.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State | 48.5 | 49.5 | 50.5 | +2.0 | +1.0 | DraftKings, Sep 30 |
| North Dakota State @ UNLV | 49.5 | 49.5 (n) | 47.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | BetMGM, Oct 4 |
| Sacramento State @ Bowling Green | 42.5 | 42.5 (n) | 44.5 | +2.0 | +2.0 | BetMGM, Oct 4 |
| Southern Miss @ Troy | 48.5 | 48.5 | 50.5 | +2.0 | +2.0 | DraftKings, Sep 30 |
| Texas A&M @ Missouri | 50.5 | 50.5 | 48.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | DraftKings, Sep 30 |
| Tulane @ Army | 46.5 | 46.5 (n) | 48.5 | +2.0 | +2.0 | BetMGM, Oct 4 |
| USC @ Penn State | 56.5 | 56.5 | 54.5 | −2.0 | −2.0 | DraftKings, Aug 5 |
| Duke @ Georgia Tech | 51.5 | 51.5 | 50.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt | 57.5 | 57.5 | 59.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
| Stanford @ Notre Dame | 55.5 | 55.5 | 54.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 | BetRivers, Oct 4 |
How I Measure This
Every number here is one book against itself — its own look-ahead, its own opener, its own price today. Averaging books that started in different places invents movement that never happened, so I don't do it. Where a game leans on one book, I name the book.
I also throw out anything that's just one book posting a number and correcting itself overnight with nothing else confirming it. That's not a market moving, that's a guy fixing a typo. Fifteen of those came out this week.
Saturday is when I tell you what I think of these numbers. Tuesday is just the tape.
Lines are US-book prices captured Tuesday morning and they'll keep moving. Shop your number.
The Tuesday Number runs every week of the season, free. Our CFB Trench Report grades every matchup in the country and publishes the week's Top 5 Mismatches — included with Insider. Premium adds the picks: every play from every Bettor Day contributor, in one dashboard. Compare tiers →
Jake Novakovich is a contributor to Bettor Day. You can follow him on X @CashOnSaturdays