NHL Season Preview
Scott Seidenberg and Kevin Rogers preview the NHL Season by taking a look a the futures market. Plus tips on how to use the Bettor Day 1st Period Database to make your bets.
Listen to to the NHL Preview Pod!
🗓️ THE 84-GAME SEASON
Kevin: "It kind of snuck up on us — late September and you're getting your first games. Two extra games, and there are no long breaks this year. No Olympic break, no Four Nations. It's back to the All-Star weekend."
Does It Matter?
"Between us, I don't think so — but for them I'm sure it does, because it's a lot of wear and tear on the body. It's something they had to do. It didn't go from 82 to 90. It's two more games.
All it does is give us more hockey games to bet on."
🏆 STANLEY CUP FUTURES
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Florida Panthers | +650 |
| Colorado Avalanche | +750 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +750 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 10/1 |
| Washington Capitals | 11/1 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 11/1 |
Are the Panthers the Rightful Favorite?
Kevin: "They should be — and not from a biased standpoint."
🏥 The Injury Context
"It started before the season even began. Alexander Barkov tore his ACL in training camp — gone before the season started. Matthew Tkachuk wasn't coming back until before the Olympics.
So two of your best players didn't play the first three months. Take the top two players off ANY team in the NHL and it makes a difference. Then different injuries to Brad Marchand and others throughout the year. They were just a beat-up team."
😴 THE REST ARGUMENT
"The best thing that came out of it: after going to the Stanley Cup Final three straight years, playing into June, a lot of these guys also played in the Olympics and the Four Nations. They played a LOT of hockey. They needed a break.
And that's what they got by missing the playoffs."
The Roster Changes
| Move | Detail |
|---|---|
| OUT: Sergei Bobrovsky | To Toronto — couldn't come to an agreement on a contract |
| IN: Jacob Markstrom | From New Jersey — originally DRAFTED by the Panthers years ago, never got a real shot as the consistent starter. "I think he probably wants a redemption story here." |
| IN: Brady Tkachuk | From Ottawa, now with his brother — "Brady doesn't have the pressure of carrying a franchise like he did in Ottawa. Now he can just kind of mix in there." |
Kevin: "It's all about health in all sports. If the Panthers can be healthy, they should be able to go pretty far."
⭐ THE DIVISION PICK: MINNESOTA WILD +270
The question: which division favorite is most likely to lose their division?
| Division | Favorite | Second |
|---|---|---|
| Atlantic | Panthers +180 | Lightning +280 |
| Central | Avalanche +130 | Wild +270 |
| Metropolitan | Hurricanes +115 | Capitals +300 |
| Pacific | Oilers +155 | Golden Knights +210 |
Kevin's Answer: Colorado
"I'll go a little wild card — the Minnesota Wild at +270. They had a slow start last year and then picked things up. They're a loaded team.
Colorado came so close last year and then just didn't look good in the Western Conference Final against Vegas. I think maybe Colorado stubs their toe this year.
Let's not get crazy and say St. Louis or Nashville — that's not happening. But Minnesota could win a division.
I don't know if Colorado can sustain all of that throughout the season. Or maybe they'll learn their lesson: don't put it all out there in the regular season and run out of gas in the playoffs."
The Other Three
Metro: "The Hurricanes are really good. I don't want to take away from them. I can't pick anyone in the Metro."
Pacific: "Edmonton at +155 with a coaching change and Babcock there now. Vegas at +210 — Torts didn't come back and they're trying to figure it all out. Edmonton and Vegas both have questions with the goalies. A lot of those Pacific teams have goalie questions, and that really hurts them."
🥅 THE VEZINA: THE HELLEBUYCK PROBLEM
Connor Hellebuyck is the +500 favorite — and the Winnipeg Jets suspended him. He wants out. He wasn't even invited to training camp.
⚠️ The Warning
"I've never been good at predicting a trade or saying he'll end up in Detroit or wherever. You'd think Winnipeg is working day and night to figure this out so they don't just have him ROTTING ON THE BENCH.
If you're under the impression let's jump on him now before he gets traded, and then I'll be playing because I'm going to a place I want to be — so be it.
But if Winnipeg says you're not going to play AND we're not going to trade you, then he just gets stuck there and you have nothing to work with."
🎯 The Names Below the Favorites
| Goalie | Odds | Kevin's Read |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson (WSH) | — | Right behind Shesterkin |
| Igor Shesterkin (NYR) | — | "Always a good look, potentially" |
| Jacob Markstrom (FLA) | 14/1 | "I probably wouldn't take a shot with him" |
| Jake Oettinger (DAL) | 22/1 | Worth a look |
| Filip Gustavsson (MIN) | 22/1 | ⭐ "If you want to Hail Mary a little bit" — pairs with the Wild division play |
| Lukas Dostal (ANA) | — | "Had a decent season last year" |
"There are guys below the first few favorites who are really worth a look in this."
🍼 THE CALDER: IS MARTONE THE BETTER PLAY?
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Gavin McKenna (TOR) | +270 |
| Porter Martone (PHI) | +310 |
(Martone played nine games last year and played well — and reports have him on Philadelphia's TOP LINE this season.)
The Opportunity Argument
Kevin: "McKenna is in a really good place in Toronto. The pressure's on him — he goes to a last-place team that was in the second round two years ago, and they bring back Auston Matthews and Tavares and just a loaded group of good veteran players.
This isn't a Connor Bedard situation where he has to carry the team.
Are you putting up 70 or 80 points this year alongside all those guys, assuming they're healthy? I don't know if you're going to do that. That's what scares me off — he is NOT going to be a star on that team, because you have stars already.
Martone could be worth something. Philadelphia was still a playoff team last year — I don't want to say they're not good. But it comes down to who's going to play more on not-so-great teams and get opportunities just to get more points."
🛡️ THE NORRIS
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cale Makar (COL) | +300 |
| Quinn Hughes | +400 |
| Zach Werenski | +750 |
| Lane Hutson (MTL) | +800 |
| Rasmus Dahlin (BUF) | +800 |
| Evan Bouchard (EDM) | +800 |
It Comes Down to Health
Kevin: "It's all about who's going to stay healthiest in the end. If one of these guys gets banged up, they're obviously out of it.
Look at baseball — Ohtani could have won the Cy Young, and Misiorowski had a great year. Ohtani gets hurt and it's all Misiorowski now.
So who is going to remain healthy? If they ALL stay healthy, you think Makar's the guy just because. We can't ever predict injuries. Hutson could be worth looking at at 8-to-1 for Montreal — he had a good season last year."
❤️ THE HART: THE CELEBRINI CASE
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | +250 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | +370 |
| Macklin Celebrini (SJ) | 5/1 |
⚠️ THE CONDITION ON CELEBRINI
Kevin: "He signed that big deal before the season, and San Jose is trying to get to that Anaheim/Utah level of getting over the hump. He has a lot of young guys surrounding him. I think he could be worth a look because he could put up the numbers — and this award is all about numbers.
But it's a tough group. McDavid can drop 120 easily. Draisaitl is obviously very good but has had injury issues.
Here's the thing: Celebrini has GOT to get San Jose to the playoffs. He cannot win this award with the Sharks outside the postseason.
And the West, once you get past the top four teams, is wide open. I really think it's wide open. If you can't get there this year, I don't think you win the award even if you drop a hundred-something. There's got to be something to get you there — not just being the highest point guy on your team."
📌 The relevant number: San Jose is -128 to make the playoffs.
🥇 STANLEY CUP OR PRESIDENTS' TROPHY?
| Presidents' Trophy | Odds |
|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | +550 |
| Colorado Avalanche | +550 |
| Florida Panthers | 7/1 |
The question: would you rather have the Panthers to win the Stanley Cup at +650, or the Presidents' Trophy at 7/1?
⭐ KEVIN: THE STANLEY CUP, EASILY
"Paul Maurice's mindset over time is: GET IN THE PLAYOFFS. We can win on the road. We're not afraid of playing game one on the road.
They won two years ago WITHOUT home ice advantage in any round. It's not that important to them.
We also know about the Presidents' Trophy jinx — the team with the top points in the regular season that doesn't win it all.
They know: do what you have to do and stay healthy. Health is more important than killing yourself now, with two extra games to get there."
📊 The Stat
Over the three years they went to the Stanley Cup Final, the Panthers were 9-0 against the Eastern Conference — and 11-1 overall, with the only loss coming to Vegas the first year.
"They know: just get there. That is more key for them than having the most points in the NHL."
🏒 THE NHL HQ IS LIVE
Our NHL headquarters is LIVE on BettorDay.com and in the Bettor Day mobile app
What's In It
The matchup view: click any game for a full matchup card — goals for and against per game, power play and penalty kill percentage, 5v5 shot attempt share, 5v5 shots on goal share, and shots on goal for and allowed per game.
Shots on goal props: player hit rates compared to what their opponent allows over the course of a season.
⭐ The First Period Database
Everything you need to bet NHL first periods:
- Straight up records
- Over/under records
- Both teams to score records
- Goal in the first 10 records (your GIFT bets)
- Goalie records — track every goalie's first period performance, split by home and away, with first period goals against average and first period save percentage
🎯 KEVIN'S FIRST PERIOD STRATEGY
Why First Periods
"I like first period more because you only have forty minutes to worry about of real time. Obviously it's a twenty minute period, but it's only a forty-minute bet. You don't have to worry about shootouts and things like that, which can be just random at the end of the day."
⭐ THE OVERS RULE: WAIT TWO OR THREE MINUTES
"If you like overs in an NHL game — DON'T LAY -150. Wait two or three minutes. Let that number drop.
And the same for a first period. If you look back at it, the majority of the time when games go over, they score four, five, six minutes into the first period. THEY DON'T SCORE 30 SECONDS IN. That's very rare.
So if you like an UNDER, take it before the game — that's your best price. But if you're taking an OVER and you have a live betting app, wait two or three minutes and you'll see that number keep dropping.
You go from -150 to maybe -130, -125. Or from -125 to -110. Let this thing play out, because they're not going to score that fast in every single game."
📊 The Database Version of the Same Point
Scott: "You can use the database and just look at the history.
The Sharks were the best over team in the first period last year — but they were SIXTH in goal in first ten.
Toronto was the second best over team in the first period — and FOURTEENTH in goal in first ten.
A lot of times there are goals in the first period that don't necessarily come EARLY. You can wait until that first whistle or first stoppage and play a live over in the first period."
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Find Kevin: @RogersPicks on Twitter · the Locked On Bets podcast with Lee Sterling (heavier on NFL and college football, with hockey plays now that the season's starting) · PrizePicks (DFS across all sports) · PicksWise · and the Florida Panthers radio network.