FADING RECENCY BIAS = PROFIT
I want to revisit a project I did last season, looking at Week 2 of the NFL and remind everyone why it's the best week to bet all season long.
Naturally, there is going to be a reaction to Week 1 games. We've all be waiting months for the NFL to return, and after a summer of research and preparation, we finally have a real data point to go off of and not just our priors. But because it's only 1 week, the data point should be taken with a grain of salt. The betting public doesn't follow this course of action, instead, they bet based on what they just saw.
Let's take a look at some Week 2 numbers since the start of the 2021 season (again I use 2021 as the new line of demarcation with the expansion to a 17 game regular season and the shortening of the preseason to 3 weeks)
📊 Week 2 Underdogs
Underdogs in Week 2 are 44-30-4 (59.5%), covering the spread by an average of 1.1 PPG. But now let's look at specific situations where the market (and public) may over-react, thus we can advantage of recency bias.
📈 0-1 Teams: The Bounce-Back Opportunity
Teams that lost straight up in Week 1 and then are listed as an Underdog in Week 2 are 26-17-2 ATS (60.5%) since 2021, covering by an average of 1.2 PPG. When those 0-1 Underdogs are on the road in Week 2, they are 18-7-1 ATS (72%) covering by an average of 2.4 PPG. I find these numbers to be fascinating. The idea here is that the market over-reacts to poor performances in Week 1 and these teams bounce back in Week 2 when they are not expected to based on the point spread.
💰 0-1 Underdogs (60.5% ATS Trend Since 2021)
Colts, Dolphins, Commanders, Saints, Browns, Titans, Falcons
🛣️ 0-1 Road Underdogs (72% Trend Since 2021)
Colts, Dolphins, Commanders, Saints, Browns
📉 1-0 Teams: The Overvalued Favorites
On the flip side, teams that won in Week 1 and then are favored in Week 2 are 18-25-3 ATS (41.9%) failing to cover by 1.8 PPG. When those 1-0 Favorites are home in Week 2, they are just 7-18-1 ATS (28%) failing to cover by 4 PPG. Again, the data showing that perhaps the lines are inflated as a result of week 1 performance.
❌ 1-0 Favorites (58.1% ATS FADE Trend Since 2021)
Chiefs, 49ers, Seahawks, Ravens, Eagles, Bears, Bills
🏠 1-0 Home Favorites (72% ATS FADE Trend Since 2021)
Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Bears, Bills
🔥 Extreme Scenarios: Blowout Reactions
Let's dive deeper into some specific scenarios. Looking at the extremes, if a team lost in Week 1 by double digits, in Week 2 they have gone 19-10-2 ATS (65.5%) since 2021, covering by an average of 2.1 PPG. What's really interesting, is when these teams that were "blown out" in Week 1 are listed as Underdogs in Week 2, they have gone 13-5-1 ATS (72.2%) covering by an average of 2.8 PPG.
Now let's look at the other side. If a team won their Week 1 game by 10+ points, in Week 2 they have gone 15-16 ATS (48.4%) and when listed as the favorite in Week 2, just 6-11 ATS (35.3%) failing to cover by 1.5 PPG. More data showing a clear market over-reaction to week 1 results.
💪 0-1 Teams off 10+ point loss (65.5% Trend Since 2021)
Rams, Colts, Dolphins, Chargers, Broncos, Browns, Packers, Titans, Panthers
🎯 0-1 Underdogs off 10+ point loss (72.2% Trend Since 2021)
Colts, Dolphins, Browns, Titans
❌ 1-0 Favorites off 10+ point win (68.8% FADE Trend Since 2021)
Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Bears
🔄 Market Opinion Reversals: The Ultimate Fade
Finally, let's take a look at some examples where the market shows a clear change of opinion that may not be warranted. Teams who covered as an Underdog in Week 1, and then in Week 2 are listed as a Favorite, have gone 5-13 ATS (27.8%) since 2021, failing to cover the spread by 5.9 PPG. When those teams win outright as a dog in Week 1, they are 5-9 ATS (35.7%) in Week 2, failing to cover by 6 PPG. When these teams are favorites of more than a FG in Week 2, they are 3-7 ATS, failing to cover by 8.1 PPG! This is a clear indication of recency bias as these teams were dogs for a reason in Week 1 and do not perform well as favorites in Week 2.
🚫 Teams who covered in Week 1 as Underdog and are Favorites in Week 2 (72.2% FADE Trend Since 2021)
49ers (won outright in Week)
🎢 The Comeback Curse
One final case here to prove the market (and public) widely over-react to what has just happened: Teams who overcome 10+ points deficits to win in Week 1, and then are favorites in Week 2, have gone 1-4 ATS since 2021, failing to cover by 9.7 PPG. Bad sign for the Seahawks, who came back from down 10-0 with Drew Lock at QB to beat the Patriots on opening night and are now laying north of a FG against the Cardinals. 5 games is a small sample so going back further to the start of the 2012 season, these come from behind win teams (from 10+ points down) listed as favorites in Week 2 have gone just 5-11 ATS (31.2%) failing to cover by 3.3 PPG.
Speaking of those Cardinals...
🤷♂️Fade the Fluke Upset?
Teams who pulled a big upset, winning outright as a 7+ point dogs in Week 1, are 5-2-2 ATS (71.4%) in Week 2 since 2012 (2-0-2 ATS as Dogs)
💡 The Bottom Line
The data is clear, the betting markets completely over-react to Week 1 results. As bettors we can take advantage of this by being contrarian. Here are some plays based on these trends:
🎯 RECOMMENDED PLAYS:
- Colts +6.5 at Chiefs (Wait for a 7)
- Dolphins +13.5 at 49ers
- Cardinals +4.5 vs Seahawks
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