> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # NFL Week 2 Betting Strategies - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/nfl-week-2-betting-strategies/ - Published: 2026-09-16T13:00:59.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-16T13:00:59.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Free Play, NFL ## FADING RECENCY BIAS = PROFIT I want to revisit a project I did last season, looking at Week 2 of the NFL and remind everyone why it's the best week to bet all season long. Naturally, there is going to be a reaction to Week 1 games. We've all be waiting months for the NFL to return, and after a summer of research and preparation, we finally have a real data point to go off of and not just our priors. But because it's only 1 week, the data point should be taken with a grain of salt. The betting public doesn't follow this course of action, instead, they bet based on what they just saw. Let's take a look at some Week 2 numbers **since the start of the 2021 season** (again I use 2021 as the new line of demarcation with the expansion to a 17 game regular season and the shortening of the preseason to 3 weeks) --- ## πŸ“Š Week 2 Underdogs Underdogs in Week 2 are **44-30-4 (59.5%)**, covering the spread by an average of **1.1 PPG**. But now let's look at specific situations where the market (and public) may over-react, thus we can advantage of recency bias. --- ## πŸ“ˆ 0-1 Teams: The Bounce-Back Opportunity Teams that lost straight up in Week 1 and then are listed as an Underdog in Week 2 are **26-17-2 ATS (60.5%)** since 2021, covering by an average of **1.2 PPG**. When those 0-1 Underdogs **are on the road in Week 2**, they are **18-7-1 ATS (72%)** covering by an average of **2.4 PPG**. I find these numbers to be fascinating. The idea here is that the market over-reacts to poor performances in Week 1 and these teams bounce back in Week 2 when they are not expected to based on the point spread. ### πŸ’° **0-1 Underdogs (60.5% ATS Trend Since 2021)** Colts, Dolphins, Commanders, Saints, Browns, Titans, Falcons ### πŸ›£οΈ **0-1 Road Underdogs (72% Trend Since 2021)** Colts, Dolphins, Commanders, Saints, Browns --- ## πŸ“‰ 1-0 Teams: The Overvalued Favorites On the flip side, teams that won in Week 1 and then **are favored** in Week 2 are **18-25-3 ATS (41.9%)** failing to cover by **1.8 PPG**. When those 1-0 Favorites **are home** in Week 2, they are just **7-18-1 ATS (28%)** failing to cover by **4 PPG**. Again, the data showing that perhaps the lines are inflated as a result of week 1 performance. ### ❌ **1-0 Favorites (58.1% ATS FADE Trend Since 2021)** Chiefs, 49ers, Seahawks, Ravens, Eagles, Bears, Bills ### 🏠 **1-0 Home Favorites (72% ATS FADE Trend Since 2021)** Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Bears, Bills --- ## πŸ”₯ Extreme Scenarios: Blowout Reactions Let's dive deeper into some specific scenarios. Looking at the extremes, if a team lost in Week 1 **by double digits**, in Week 2 they have gone **19-10-2 ATS (65.5%)** since 2021, covering by an average of **2.1 PPG**. What's really interesting, is **when these teams that were "blown out" in Week 1 are listed as Underdogs in Week 2**, they have gone **13-5-1 ATS (72.2%)** covering by an average of **2.8 PPG**. Now let's look at the other side. If a team **won their Week 1 game by 10+ points**, in Week 2 they have gone **15-16 ATS (48.4%)** and when listed **as the favorite** in Week 2, just **6-11 ATS (35.3%)** failing to cover by **1.5 PPG**. More data showing a clear market over-reaction to week 1 results. ### πŸ’ͺ **0-1 Teams off 10+ point loss (65.5% Trend Since 2021)** Rams, Colts, Dolphins, Chargers, Broncos, Browns, Packers, Titans, Panthers ### 🎯 **0-1 Underdogs off 10+ point loss (72.2% Trend Since 2021)** Colts, Dolphins, Browns, Titans ### ❌ **1-0 Favorites off 10+ point win (68.8% FADE Trend Since 2021)** Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Bears --- ## πŸ”„ Market Opinion Reversals: The Ultimate Fade Finally, let's take a look at some examples where the market shows a clear change of opinion that may not be warranted. Teams who **covered as an Underdog** in Week 1, and then in Week 2 **are listed as a Favorite**, have gone **5-13 ATS (27.8%)** since 2021, failing to cover the spread by **5.9 PPG**. When those teams **win outright as a dog** in Week 1, they are **5-9 ATS (35.7%)** in Week 2, failing to cover by **6 PPG**. When these teams **are favorites of more than a FG** in Week 2, they are **3-7 ATS**, failing to cover by **8.1 PPG**! This is a clear indication of recency bias as these teams were dogs for a reason in Week 1 and do not perform well as favorites in Week 2. ### 🚫 **Teams who covered in Week 1 as Underdog and are Favorites in Week 2 (72.2% FADE Trend Since 2021)** 49ers (won outright in Week) --- ## 🎒 The Comeback Curse One final case here to prove the market (and public) widely over-react to what has just happened: Teams who **overcome 10+ points deficits** to win in Week 1, and then are **favorites in Week 2**, have gone **1-4 ATS** since 2021, failing to cover by **9.7 PPG**. Bad sign for the Seahawks, who came back from down 10-0 with Drew Lock at QB to beat the Patriots on opening night and are now laying north of a FG against the Cardinals. 5 games is a small sample so going back further to the start of the 2012 season, these come from behind win teams (from 10+ points down) listed as favorites in Week 2 have gone just **5-11 ATS (31.2%)** failing to cover by **3.3 PPG**. --- *Speaking of those Cardinals...* ## πŸ€·β€β™‚οΈFade the Fluke Upset? Teams who pulled a big upset, **winning outright as a 7+ point dogs** in Week 1, are **5-2-2 ATS (71.4%)** in Week 2 since 2012 (**2-0-2 ATS as Dogs**) --- ## πŸ’‘ The Bottom Line **The data is clear, the betting markets completely over-react to Week 1 results.** As bettors we can take advantage of this by being contrarian. Here are some plays based on these trends: ### 🎯 **RECOMMENDED PLAYS:** - **Colts +6.5** at Chiefs *(Wait for a 7)* - **Dolphins +13.5** at 49ers - **Cardinals +4.5** vs Seahawks *As always, lines change, shop around. 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