Trends and systems are tantalizing. So often at the end of a baseball season, or the end of the first round of the NCAA Tournament, or any given NFL weekend, you turn to your fellow bettors and ask:
“Man, why didn’t we just bet X? X has won 25 out of the last 30.”
Any of us would take a 25–5 run in anything.
What doesn’t get discussed as often is when a red-hot trend suddenly fizzles out—when what had been cashing at an incredible rate completely reverses itself. The dogs start losing, the over starts hitting, whatever had been working goes cold in a moment’s notice.
Proceed with caution should be a mantra for any serious bettor, especially when working with league-wide trends. As pro bettor Steve Fezzik often notes, if you run 1,000 random queries into a sports betting database, 10 of them will invariably land in the 1% tail of probability—and they’ll always look like they’re providing valuable signal.
NFL Week 1 is a curious beast, though—one where the historical data is consistent enough, and the logic is strong enough, to at least justify serious consideration of the most proven league-wide trends at kickoff.
These lines have been posted since May, when the schedule dropped. The totals and spreads have been shaped for four months prior to kickoff—roughly ten times longer than the typical NFL number, which is molded over two weeks (first the lookahead, then game week).
In theory, these should be the hardest spreads and totals to beat all season. Yet several simple, logical patterns have persisted over decades—some especially powerful in recent years.
Part of the reason may be because of that long lead time. All summer, bettors and media convince themselves they know exactly who’s a contender, who’s middle-of-the-pack, and who’s destined for the basement. The public is charged up, ready to unload on the season’s first slate. Moreover, with seven months since the last meaningful football, caution is at a market low.
The result:
A) Favorites get overvalued. Underdogs surprise more often than not. Simply betting the dog in every game has been close to a 55% play since 2012—a hit rate any handicapper would take.
B) Totals creep too high. Unders in Week 1 have been a profitable bet over the last 36 years, better in the modern era, and flat-out red-hot post-COVID at over 60%.
The Four Big Week 1 Angles
1. Totals: The Under Isn’t Just a Lean—It’s Gaining Steam
Everyone wants to bet Overs—it’s simply more fun to root for something happening versus nothing happening. People know this, and often proceed with caution. But the long layoff seems to dull that caution, and Week 1 totals are almost always set too high.
Since 1989, Unders have cashed at 52.9% across all games—modest, but profitable. In the post-2011 CBA era, with reduced padded practices and fewer live reps in August, that clip nudged up to 53.5%.
The post-COVID sample is where it gets eye-opening: from 2021–2024, Unders have gone 60.1% in Week 1 (39 Unders vs. 25 Overs). Yes, variance could explain part of the uptick, but the underlying 40-year trend—combined with leaguewide logistical changes since 2012—strongly supports the idea that offenses start slower than the market expects.
Offensive rhythm takes reps, and modern August football doesn’t provide them. Defenses can react, tackle, and keep things in front. Offenses must time routes, adjust protections, and execute without in-game rhythm—all while facing live contact for the first time in months. The 2012 CBA’s limits on practice time have only exaggerated these patterns.
Bettor’s note: The Under isn’t an automatic bet, but when your handicap already leans that way, history isn’t just on your side—it’s sprinting ahead waving a flag.
2. All Underdogs: Market Overconfidence, Year After Year
Back in the 1990s and early 2000s, betting every Week 1 dog barely moved the needle—51.4% ATS. Since 2012? A sharp 54.9%. Post-2021? An even stronger 57.8%.
Variance may explain some of the recent swing, but the psychology behind it supports the pattern. For four months, hype builds around certain teams. Power ratings drift toward optimistic projections. And in Week 1, none of it has been tested. The public, more engaged than ever, is susceptible to these narratives—especially since PASPA’s repeal and the mass legalization of sports betting. Since then, underdogs in Week 1 have gone 51-41-3 ATS (55.4%).
That’s why this works. Favorites are priced near their ceiling. Dogs don’t have to win—just hang inside a number that might already be too high.
Bettor’s note: Betting all dogs is solid. But this angle gets even sharper when filtered down to divisional matchups.
3. Division Dogs: Average for Decades, Elite Since 2012
Here’s where the jump is impossible to ignore. From 1989–2011, Week 1 division dogs were fine, hitting 52.6% ATS. Since 2012? A scorching 66.2% (43-22-1).
Is it just a hot streak? Possibly—but there’s football logic here. Division opponents know each other inside and out. Coaches have years of film. Players know matchups, tells, and tendencies. In a league where September rust is real, familiarity levels the field and makes points more valuable for the dog.
Post-2021, the rate cooled to 57.9%—still strong, though not the absurd 66% of the prior decade. That could be regression, or just variance in a small sample. Either way, these games come with built-in motivation, and the points historically matter.
2025 Division Dogs: DAL +7 @ PHI, CHI +1.5 vs MIN, DET +1.5 @ GB, SEA +2.5 vs SF, NYG +6.5 @ WAS.
4. Division Home Dogs: The Killer Subset
If division dogs are good, division home dogs have been outright dominant in the modern era. Since 1989, they’ve hit 56.6% ATS over 76 games—a strong 36-year trend. Since 2012? A jaw-dropping 81.8% (18-4 ATS). Even post-COVID, they’ve stayed at 75.0% (6-2), including 2-0 last year.
All the elements that help underdogs—familiarity, motivation, reduced early-season separation—are supercharged here. A home dog in a rivalry game gets maximum crowd energy and the comfort of playing on familiar turf. In Week 1, when rust and uncertainty narrow the talent gap, those points have been gold.
2025 Division Home Dogs: CHI +1.5 vs MIN, SEA +2.5 vs SF.
Final Thought
Week 1 may look like it has the “tightest” lines of the season on paper, but decades of results say the market still has blind spots. If you’re leaning Under, or toward taking points with dogs—especially division home dogs—you’re following a path well worn by winning tickets.
That said, even the most reliable trends aren’t a blank check. They’re a guide, not a guarantee. Smart bettors weigh them alongside matchup specifics, injury news, and market movement. One of the best NFL bettors I know fired a significant bet on the 49ers as road favorites in Seattle for Week 1—bucking these trends, which he knows well—because he grabbed San Francisco at -1, locking in substantial closing line value over the current -2.5.
The powerful division dog trend can still work for him, though. With the line move, it may now be wise to come back on Seattle—perhaps via a teaser up to +8.5 closer to kickoff. Our edge doesn’t come from blindly chasing the latest hot trend, but from marrying historical patterns with present-day realities and rigorous analysis.