Bettor Day NFL Prop Shop
Week 4 · October 4th
Happy Week 4, Bettor Day family. Brandon Kravitz here, back at it to sort through the best props across the land of sportsbooks and exchanges.
Quite the bounce-back last week — 3-1 overall with some plus-money hits along the way. Shoutout to JSN and Travis Kelce for bringing the lunch pail. Let's stay hot with these four plays.
1. Puka Nacua OVER 6.5 receptions
LA Rams at Philadelphia · 1pm Eastern
o5.5 receptions -155, BetMGM
The Rams expect Puka out there Sunday in what already feels like a must-win spot at 1-2.
He's missed two games, and the reporting is more specific than "hip": ESPN's Adam Schefter said Sunday it's primarily a groin issue that has cost him explosiveness, that he can functionally play, but that he hasn't felt like he can go with the burst he's had in the past. That's exactly the injury profile this bet wants. The way Puka uses his frame to create separation means the catches are still there — it's the breakaway speed that takes the hit.
And when Stafford faces a Vic Fangio defense, he looks for his easy button. That man is Puka. Nacua has 39 targets over his last three games against Philadelphia, averaging nine catches a game.
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 75.5 receiving yards
Detroit at Carolina · Sunday Night Football
o75.5 receiving yards -114, FanDuel
Puka isn't the only star receiver I expect to eat. I love me some ASB.
Carolina is a scrappy group and I'd be surprised if they rolled over in a rare prime-time spot. But that doesn't mean they'll have an answer for Detroit's No. 1. Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, the Panthers' top two corners, have both been placed on injured reserve — not banged up, out — which guts what had been a strength of this defense.
It's been a quiet year for St. Brown, with just one of his first three games clearing this number. That's where the value comes from, in a game with one of the highest totals on the board.
Let others chase the touchdowns. We'll gobble up the yards in the Queen City.
3. Ollie Gordon II Anytime Touchdown
Miami at Minnesota · 4:05pm Eastern
Anytime TD +300, DraftKings
Bummer for the Dolphins. As if the season weren't already in enough shambles, De'Von Achane tore his ACL in the first quarter of last week's loss to Kansas City and is done for the year.
We can't shed tears in this business. We find the hidden dollars, and that's how we land on Ollie Gordon.
People forget, but in 2023 Gordon was viewed the way Leonard Fournette was at LSU — mega-stud status. He ran for 1,732 yards and 21 touchdowns at Oklahoma State. The follow-up was a dud and his draft stock paid for it. I bring it up because we know what's in the bag if he finds it again.
Gordon took 82% of the running back snaps once Achane and Jaylen Wright were both out. Wright is expected back this week, so that number isn't coming again — this projects as a committee. The good news for this specific bet is how it's expected to split: Wright on passing downs, Gordon on short yardage. That's the half of the backfield a touchdown prop actually lives in. The volume case got worse; the goal-line case got better.
Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL, and one way to neutralize that is to feed your back. I expect Ollie to eat.
4. Jalon Daniels UNDER 35.5 rushing yards
Tampa Bay at Green Bay · [TIME]
u35.5 rushing yards -115, BetMGM
Let's balance this stats-fest with an under. You've got to eat your veggies in this prop life.
Context first, because it's the whole reason this number exists: Daniels is a rookie making his first real NFL start, in for Baker Mayfield, who dislocated his thumb and is out several weeks. The book is pricing an athlete it hasn't seen play meaningful NFL snaps.
I get the appeal. Daniels is a fun athlete with burst in the open field. But this number isn't proportional to what we've actually seen.
In the preseason he dropped back 58 times across three games, took off on 14 of them, and finished with 37 rushing yards total — roughly 12 a game. That was against inferior defenses, sure, and with fewer opportunities. Green Bay isn't the '85 Bears, but the Packers have enough in the front seven to keep him from causing problems with his legs.
In his best rushing season at Kansas, Daniels averaged 36 yards a game , in a Big 12 with limited defense. I'm betting that NFL defenses and a conservative first-start game plan leads to an under.
Good luck. Godspeed. Let's cash these tickets.
Brandon Kravitz is a contributor to Bettor Day. A sports media veteran, Brandon works as a betting analyst for Action Network & Rotowire. He is also the host of the Orlando Magic Radio Network. You can follow him @BrandonKravitz across X, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube.
Prices live at time of writing. Numbers move and props get pulled — re-check before you play, and shop for your number.
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