Bettor Day NFL Prop Shop
Week 1 · September 13th
What's up, football fans? I'm Brandon Kravitz. You might not know me, and I might not know you, but we're going to get to know each other pretty well over the next 18-plus weeks of NFL action.
Consider this your weekly Prop Shop. I'll bring you value, great prices, and highly actionable angles.
Will we have ups and downs? Of course. Fall down seven times, stand up eight. We'll cross that bridge when we get to it. For now, let's start with some knockouts.
1. Malik Willis OVER 37.5 rushing yards
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
o37.5 rushing yards — −112, BetRivers
In Willis's last six starts — which are also his only six starts — he's cleared this number in all but one. Keep the sample in mind: six games and 155 passes in four years as a pro. He will run at the first sign of conflict, I assure you.
The matchup cooperates. The Raiders allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks on designed runs.
2. James Cook UNDER 93.5 rush + receiving yards
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
u93.5 rush + rec — −115, Hard Rock Bet
If I like the Texans' defense to shine — and I do — then I have to like their chances of shutting down James Cook.
Houston ranked fourth in the NFL against the run last year and No. 1 in success rate against the pass. Josh Allen struggled against this defense last time out, but I'm too skittish to take Allen unders here. So we look for the trickle-down instead.
Note: I also like Texans +1.5 on the side.
3. Cam Ward to throw an INT
Tennessee Titans at New York Jets
Yes — +117, NoVig
The No. 1 regression candidate in the NFL is the Jets defense, and the number they're regressing from is zero.
Not "few." Zero. The 2025 Jets became the first team in NFL history — interceptions have been recorded since 1933 — to finish a full season without a single one. Opposing quarterbacks threw 515 passes against them for 36 touchdowns and nothing coming back the other way. The previous record was two, by the 2018 49ers.
I'm getting out in front of that against a quarterback who's too loose with the football for my blood, in a new offensive system, with growing pains coming. And the Jets spent the offseason on exactly this problem: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Demario Davis, Joseph Ossai, T'Vondre Sweat, David Bailey — plus Nahshon Wright, who personally had five picks for a Bears team that led the league in takeaways. This defense is going to be flying around.
4. Joe Burrow OVER 267.5 passing yards
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
o267.5 passing yards — −113, DraftKings
The Bucs' lack of a pass rush could be a problem for them. There's a reason they spent a first-round pick on Rueben Bain. And don't let their top-three pressure rate from 2025 fool you — that's what Todd Bowles does. Bowles creates pressure by blitzing at a high rate, not by winning up front.
That strategy can be death against Joe Burrow, who ranks among the league's best passers when facing pressure. Blitz him, and he finds the hot read before the blitz gets home.
5. Malik Nabers UNDER 61.5 receiving yards
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
u61.5 receiving yards — −120, BetMGM
The Cowboys' defense wasn't much to write home about in 2025, but it should be meaningfully better in 2026 — one of the reasons I'm high on this team overall. Step one is slowing down the Giants' No. 1 option, and I think they can.
More than anything, it's Nabers' health I'm fading. He isn't close to 100%, and a snap count looks likely. Add that reports out of New York suggest Jaxson Dart hasn't mastered the Matt Nagy offense yet, and the volume case gets thin.
Brandon Kravitz is a contributor to Bettor Day. A sports media veteran, Brandon worlks as a betting analyst for Action Network & Rotowire. He is also the host of the Orlando Magic Radio Network. You can follow him@BrandonKravitz across X, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube.
Prices live at time of writing from BetRivers, Hard Rock Bet, NoVig, DraftKings and BetMGM. Numbers move and props get pulled — re-check before you play, and shop for your number.
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