NFL Prop Shop

Week 9 · November 8th

David Bearman joins the Bettor Day Podcast every single Wednesday and each week gives out a ton of player props, not only on our pod, but on his podcast as well, Betting w/Bearman. The following props were sent out earlier in the week to Bettor Day Premium members, as well as featured in the Betting w/Bearman newsletter.

CLE RB Quinshon Judkins Over 68.5 Rushing Yards

-113, FanDuel

• The Saints' rush defense has been awful, allowing 139.4 yards per game (29th), and allowing: 
  • Gibbs (156), Henry (68), Jeanty/Washington (100), Bijan (145), Aaron Jones (113), and Jaylen Warren (101) to all exceed this line. 
• It's been an up-and-down season for Judkins, usually dependent on the game script and score. He only had 11 carries for 25 yards last week as the Browns were down all game, but 96 yards and 2 TDs the week before at Tennessee in a close win, and 18 for 70 in a win over the Panthers. 
• With Deshaun Watson likely out and Shedeur Sanders in, the Browns are going to want to take advantage of the Saints' bad rush defense and control the game on the ground. 

DET TE Sam LaPorta Over 46.5 Receiving Yards

-125, BetMGM

MIA TE Greg Dulcich Over 38.5 Receiving Yards

-115, DraftKings

• This Lions vs. Dolphins matchup pits the two teams with the worst TE coverage against each other, allowing the most (Lions) and 3rd-most (Dolphins) yards to TEs this season.
• We hit T.J. Hockenson easily last week vs. the Lions, as he went for 58 yards and a TD. They allow 97.9 yards per game to TEs, allowing the following this season:
  • T.J. Hockenson: 4-58, TD
  • Dalton Kincaid: 7-95, TD
  • Kenyon Sadiq: 7-105, TD and Jeremy Ruckert 5-39, TD
  • 3 Panthers TEs combining for 8 catches and 56 yards
  • Trey McBride: 9-66, TD and Elijah Higgins 3-57
  • Tucker Kraft: 4-48, TD
• Greg Dulcich has become one of Malik Willis' favorite weapons, going for 37, 86, and 43 yards in the last three games. 
• On the other side, Miami allows 69.0 yards per game to TEs, and it could've been worse if Hunter Henry hadn't missed the last 2.5 quarters with a foot injury last week, costing us the bet. He had 30 of his needed 39 at the time of the injury, 20 minutes into the game. 
• Sam LaPorta may not be option 1, 2, or 3 for Jared Goff, but he's had 44+ yards in five of seven games this season and will find room vs. the Dolphins defense. 

SF TE George Kittle Over 5.5 Receptions

-136, FanDuel

• Maybe this week should be National TE Day as we take our 3rd TE prop of the weekend. 
• The Raiders can't cover TEs either, allowing the 3rd-most receptions (6.9) per game. Juwan Johnson (8 receptions), Dalton Kincaid (7), Eli Raridon/Hunter Henry (5 and 3), and Colby Parkinson/Dennis Allen (5 and 4) have all done well vs. Las Vegas. 
• George Kittle has 5+ receptions in four of the seven games, including a season-high 8 for 88 in his last game vs. the Falcons. He's had 18 combined targets in the last two games alone. 

CAR RB Chuba Hubbard Over 2.5 Receptions

-151, DraftKings

• In the last two Panthers' games, Chuba Hubbard has 11 catches on 13 targets for 66 yards. He's averaging 3.7 targets per game and has 3+ catches in four of seven games this season. 
• Denver allows 5.2 receptions a game to RBs, 8th-most in the league, including 9 combined to Emmett Johnson (5) and Ken Walker (4) last week. The Broncos have allowed 15 RB receptions alone in the last two games. 
• The Broncos defense forced Patrick Mahomes into checkdowns last week and should do the same this week to Bryce Young, who has struggled downfield the last two games. 

David Bearman is a frequent contributor to Bettor Day. You can listen to Dave on the Bettor Day Podcast on Wednesday mornings, as well as the "Betting with Bearman" podcast on the Bleav Podcast Network, and you can watch him on Saturday mornings on SportsGrid. David also serves as a betting analyst for CBS SportsLine. Follow David on X@DavidBearman

The Following Props are courtesy of Evan Daniel of Walter Football

IND RB Jonathan Taylor Over 62.5 Rushing Yards

-113, DraftKings

Ladders 70+ (+110) / 80+ (+160)

·       Why: Taylor averages 76.2 rush yds/g (8 g, 2026 Wks 1-8); last 3: 94, 95, 23. Opponent Rush yds/g allowed: 136 (#32). DAL is #32 in rush yds allowed (136/g). Taylor is the IND offense (95+ in two of his last three).

·       Usage: IND RB; season avg 76.2 vs line 62.5 (+13.8).

·       Risk: Worst run D in the league + a workhorse role. But: the 23-yd game last week came in a negative script, and DAL -5.5 could push IND to throw.

NYG WR Malik Nabers Over 70.5 Receiving Yards

-114, DraftKings

Ladders 80+ (+124) / 90+ (+178)

·       Why: Nabers averages 86.4 rec yds/g (7 g, 2026 Wks 1-8); last 3: 121, 165, 111. Opponent WR rec yds/g allowed: 183.8 (#29). PHI is #29 in WR rec yds allowed (183.8/g). Nabers went 121, 165, 111 in his last three.

·       Usage: NYG WR; season avg 86.4 vs line 72.5 (+13.9).

As always, lines change, shop around. Take advantage of our FREE Odds Page and for a FULL MARKET REPORT on every NFL Game, check our or NFL HQ, exclusively for Bettor Day Insider and Premium Members. Plus our College Football HQ has matchup analysis on every game, with links directly to the Trench Reports. See both tiers →