NFL Prop Shop

Week 8 · November 1st

David Bearman joins the Bettor Day Podcast every single Wednesday and each week gives out a ton of player props, not only on our pod, but on his podcast as well, Betting w/Bearman. The following props were sent out earlier in the week to Bettor Day Premium members, as well as featured in the Betting w/Bearman newsletter.

TB QB Baker Mayfield over 19.5 Completions

-110, BetRivers

• We are going back to the well here after hitting Brock Purdy last week, making QBs 7-0 this season to the over in the completion prop vs. the Falcons, with an average of 26.6 per game. 
• The Falcons may have the fourth-best rush defense in the NFL, but their pass defense is 29th, allowing 255.6 yards per game.
• Last week, Brock Purdy had this by the third quarter and finished with 27.
• Mayfield hit this in the first two games of the season, got hurt in the third game at 17 completions before missing the next 3 games. We will throw last week out as the Bucs didn't need to pass with a huge early lead. He only attempted 11 passes. 

BAL WR Zay Flowers over 82.5 Receiving Yards 

-113, FanDuel

• Buffalo has the 31st ranked pass defense, allowing 285.8 yards per game. 
• Flowers has gone over this number in four of six games, and more importantly, in all three games he and Lamar Jackson were on the field (150-84-118). Well, Lamar is back this week, which should also be a boost. 
• We've seen Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tre Harris, Tyler Higbee, and Puka Nakua all get 75+ vs. the Bills and when you have a Chargers receiver doing it, you know you have a bad pass defense. 

PIT RB Jaylen Warren over 64.5 Rushing Yards

-111, DraftKings

• We are aware Rico Dowdle came back two weeks, but Warren still had 75% and 62% snap shares and outrushed him 32-to-16 over the two games. 
• Warren went for 127-93-101 in the three games Dowdle was out. He's had 50 and 101 with Dowdle back and the Steelers are going to keep using him as we saw with 18 carries last week. 
• The Browns' rush defense has dropped off since they traded Myles Garrett in the offseason, going from one of the better ones last year to 20th in the league, allowing 116.4 per game. Warren had 93 yards in the team's TNF game in Week 4, and others have done well vs. the Browns this year as well, including Tony Pollard's career week last week. 
  • Tuten (66), Irving (89), Hubbard (82), Allen (116), and Pollard (129) to all exceed this line. Somehow, only Derrick Henry did not. 

MIN TE T.J. Hockenson over 40.5 Receiving Yards

-113, BetMGM

• Why not two TE picks? After all, we got Barner right last week. Maybe this is our new thing.
• The only thing that makes the Miami Dolphins defense against the TEs look good is the Lions (quote from long-time reader Daniel).
• The Lions have the worst defense in the NFL vs. TE, allowing 100.3 yards per game on 9.3 receptions per game, which includes:
  • Dalton Kincaid: 7-95, TD
  • Kenyon Sadiq: 7-105, TD and Jeremy Ruckert 5-39, TD
  • 3 Panthers TEs combining for 8 catches and 56 yards
  • Trey McBride: 9-66, TD and Elijah Higgins 3-57
  • Tucker Kraft: 4-48, TD
• As noted in the Henry pick above, Hockenson destroyed the Dolphins with 13 catches and 113 yards. 

Ladder Hockenson to 50+

JAX RB Bhayshul Tuten over 65.5 Rushing Yards

-113, FanDuel

• Tuten has 65+ yards in five of six games this season, only missing in Week 6 vs Houston with 12 carries in a games that they were trailing for most of second half. 
• We expect this game script to be heavy Jacksonville leading over a Colts team that is in the middle of a fire sale, so once they get up big, this could be a Tuten second half. 

David Bearman is a frequent contributor to Bettor Day. You can listen to Dave on the Bettor Day Podcast on Wednesday mornings, as well as the "Betting with Bearman" podcast on the Bleav Podcast Network, and you can watch him on Saturday mornings on SportsGrid. David also serves as a betting analyst for CBS SportsLine. Follow David on X@DavidBearman

The Following Props are courtesy of Evan Daniel of Walter Football

DAL WR CeeDee Lamb Over 80.5 Receiving Yards

-113 FanDuel

•    ARI allows 152.6 WR rec yds/g (#21); PFF coverage grade 47.2 (#27)

•    29.7% of DAL's targets and 38.0% of air yards; averages 93.0 rec yds a game

•    Risk: if DAL builds a big lead and runs it, his second-half targets dry up.

CIN WR Tee Higgins Over 69.5 Receiving Yards

-115, BetMGM

•    TEN allows 175.6 WR rec yds/g (#27); PFF coverage grade 53.4 (#22)

•    22.8% of CIN's targets and 41.7% of air yards; averages 95.2 rec yds a game

•    Risk: CIN is a 12.5-pt favorite; a blowout means a quiet second half.

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