Illinois +2.5 vs Houston
My favorite look in the Sweet 16 is Illinois +2.5. At the time of this writing, it’s my only Sweet 16 play.
I do not care that this game is in Houston. I do not care that the Cougars have played better inside the city all season. I think this Illinois offense is going to be the biggest test Kelvin Sampson and his group have faced in this tournament, and really since Arizona.
Since January 1st, the Fighting Illini have the second-ranked offense in the country. Even though they are not a fast team, ranking 60th slowest over their last ten games, I think they push the pace in this matchup. Head coach Brad Underwood knows a team like Houston that leans on a slow, methodical defense is not going to want this game sped up. For being that slow, Illinois is still extremely efficient, averaging 84.7 points per game this season while playing the 22nd toughest schedule.
Over Houston’s last ten games, they have struggled in a few key areas that benefit Illinois. First, they rank 261st in free throw rate on offense. Since January 1st, Illinois ranks first in free throw rate defense. They simply do not send teams to the line. Second, Houston ranks 282nd in two-point percentage. No matter how dominant the Cougars’ defense is, not being effective inside against a top offense like Illinois is not going to end well.
Give me Illinois.
🎯 PLAY: Illinois +2.5