Miami Heat Team Total UNDER 113.5
Going back to the well. Same system, same logic, different victim.
The Celtics lost to Atlanta last time out, 112–102 without Jayson Tatum. Tonight they're in Miami. Tatum is back and playing increasingly better the more games he gets under his belt. I like them to put the clamps down here.
Since January 2022, Boston is 75% SU and 64% ATS off a loss — best in the league. They hold opponents 3.0 points below Vegas expectations in those spots, two-thirds of their total positive ATS margin. In revenge spots vs. a team that beat them last time out, they're +3.4 ATS, and 3.2 of that comes from defense.
Miami beat Boston in their last meeting as well. When avenging a loss since 2021, Celtics are 55%, 4th best in the NBA over that time span.
And they'll be comfortable. Boston is 12-5 ATS all-time in Miami — second best record vs. any Eastern Conference opponent. They walk into Kaseya like they own the place.
The 113.5 needs work. Miami scored 119 last night against the Sixers — essentially no defense. Against an elite, motivated Boston defense? They're a 105–109 team.
The Celtics just got punched in the mouth by the Hawks. Fade Miami's offense tonight.
🎯 PLAY: Miami Heat Team Total UNDER 113.5