Nikola Jokic Under 9.5 Assists
This number is just too high and we are taking advantage of the 'best-player-tax' putting this number in an unrealistic category.
Even including his 14-assist explosion in the Nuggets last match-up vs. OKC, Jokic has gone under 9.5 assists in 10 of his last 11 games vs. the Thunder. Over his career against OKC (34 games), he averages just 7.3 assists per game — well below his season-wide average of 10.3. Despite his brilliance, the Thunder's philosophy of packing the paint takes away a lot of the rim and mid-range assists that Jokic is used to.
The Thunder will miss Hartenstein in the lineup; nonetheless their defensive identity doesn't hinge on any single player. The Thunder have held opponents to 50% or worse shooting in the paint in nine consecutive games, and opponents are shooting just 48% in the paint overall for the season against OKC — which would be the lowest allowed by any defense in the last 10 years. Their turnover-forcing machine also finished last season with an NBA-record +566 turnover differential, with three players in the top seven in steals league-wide. That combination of paint suppression and help-side disruption collapses the easy pocket passes Jokic thrives on when opponents play more passive coverage.
Aaron Gordon is working himself back having played 21 minutes in his return game, but is not the usual option for Jokic in the middle. Ordinarily, Gordon keeps defenses honest in the dunker spot, providing a lob threat for Jokic if opponents bring an extra body to him on the roll — but his playing time will remain restricted for now in only his second game back from a right hamstring strain.
Jokic took 25 shots in their last game vs. the Thunder, and has averaged 19.7 shots per game in his last 11 vs. the Thunder, well above his usual average of ~17.5 over the last few years. As he does against many of the best Nuggets' opponents, Jokic is more than willing to put the cape on as a scorer in this match-up.
Jokic's Assist O/U is essentially unchanged in this match-up from his usual number despite playing a historic defense and a match-up that has proven to require more from him from a scoring perspective.
🎯 PLAY: Jokic UNDER 9.5 Assists