Charlotte Hornets -4.5 @ Phoenix Suns
Classic 'right back on the horse' handicap here. The excusable recent loss by the Hornets gives us an opportunity to take advantage of their recent surge in performance which the market has not yet caught up to.
Both the Suns and the Hornets are coming off losses, but the nature of those losses could not be more disparate, and I think they illustrate why these teams are moving so rapidly in opposite directions.
The Hornets had their win streak snapped despite scoring 120 points vs. a Heat defense that has been in the top 5 throughout 2026. The Heat in that game made 48% of their 3s, and unexpected scorers like Jaime Jaquez went off — a very forgivable loss. On the other hand, the Suns lost to the Bulls in their last match-up despite the Bulls not shooting well at all, only making 7 threes. Instead, the Suns showed more fundamental vulnerabilities, giving up 62 points in the paint. Despite Devin Booker being back, the litany of other injuries have punctured the cohesiveness that defined their early part of the season.
The Hornets, meanwhile, have never been playing better despite the recent loss. The Hornets still have the #1 garbage-time adjusted, Cleaning the Glass Net Rating since January 1st.
And that loss itself may give us more assurance that they will maintain that form in the near term than if they had won the game. Take the 15 teams this season that have had a 6+ game win streak snapped: those teams are 11-4 ATS. Zooming out, since 2021, teams that have had a 6+ game winning streak snapped are 20 games above .500 ATS (83-63-1). Why do these teams excel? Two factors work in their favor: recent performance — they have clearly found a formula that works — and motivation, as the loss inevitably wakes them up to focus on imperfections and repels any complacency that might follow sustained success.
The Hornets fit the profile. Lay the short number here with Charlotte on the road.
🎯 PLAY:Hornets -4.5