Cade Cunninghame UNDER 26.5 Points
We have the same Cade vs. Goliath match-up that we cashed with on February 23rd, a game where the Pistons lost by 11 at home and Cunningham went 5-26 from the field for just 16 points. The market has not adjusted — 26.5 — and as I pointed out in that article, there is an increasing sample size of these types of players going Under their points prop vs. Wemby.
If we look at other players with a similar inside-out scoring profile, we see a clear drop-off in average scoring production. I pulled a handful of comps that fit Cunningham's mold as high-volume combo guards who get most of their points in and around the paint: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Dončić, Tyrese Haliburton, Jalen Brunson, and Anthony Edwards. Across now 32 combined games against Wembanyama, these players went over their season scoring averages in still only 13 games. And when they did go over, it was usually accompanied by a three-point barrage — like Edwards drilling nine threes against San Antonio last month.
Cunningham will likely be more efficient than his 5-for-26 nightmare, but I think on much less volume than in their last game. The total in this game in San Antonio is four points lower than Round 1 in Detroit, which signals a tighter, slower-paced affair. That compressed game environment limits the possessions Cunningham needs to rack up a big scoring number.
Could Cunningham get hot from deep? Sure. He launched nine threes — including six in the second half — vs. the Spurs in the first game. If you're more of an Over bettor than an Under bettor, I could see considering Cunningham Over 2.5 threes here at ~+145.
I also like Cunningham Over 9.5 assists. Wemby had six blocks in that first meeting and turned Cade into a distributor — 10 assists — rather than a scorer. You could argue the Pistons lost because Cade had 21 missed shots and five turnovers. It would be a pretty easy argument — and the onus will be on him to demonstrate a different style of play.
In the rematch, I think the Spurs once again force the Pistons to beat them with scorers other than Cunningham.
🎯 PLAY: Cade Cunninghame UNDER 26.5 Points