Denver Nuggets 1st Quarter -3.5 vs Utah Jazz
The Nuggets have fallen to 6th in the NBA standings after losing close, tough and late to the Thunder and Timberwolves in their last two games. I think they will exact some revenge here against a tanking Jazz team playing at the fastest pace in the league, intent on getting their young players offensive opportunities regardless of the score.
The Nuggets are 10-2 ATS in the 1Q on the second night of a back-to-back.
Since 2019 (a.k.a. the Jokic era), the Nuggets are 3rd best in the NBA in the 1Q on the second night of a back-to-back and a league-best 63% when on the road in the 1Q in those scenarios (32-19 1Q ATS).
The Nuggets have two qualities that make them especially good early and prone to fade later in the game: they are particularly reliant on their starting five and particularly reliant on one great player. If the Nuggets blow out the Jazz like we expect, the Joker may finish with only 30 minutes in the game, especially on a back-to-back. We can isolate 8-10 of those minutes by focusing on the 1Q.
Since 2019, teams are only 47.7% ATS (42-46-1) for the full game when playing in Utah on the second night of a back-to-back, but that same group is actually profitable at 52.4% (44-40-2) in the 1Q of those games. This makes sense: the negative effects of playing in Utah are due to attrition and increased fatigue, which are minimal in the 1Q.
This is a perfect scenario to watch these qualities and trends play out. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in the 1Q when coming off back-to-back losses this seasons. They are 61% (43-28-1) in such scenarios since 2019, third best in the league over that span.
Expect the Nuggets to roll early and play their starters only as needed down the stretch.
🎯 PLAY: Denver 1st Quarter -3.5