WAS Wizards @ BOS Celtics U232.5
Historic line here with the Celtics favored by 20 at home.
Pride gets in the way here. The Wizards are ostensibly playing out the string, giving up a lot of points and playing at a foolishly fast pace to get more offensive opportunities for their young players — all that tracks. But despite losing in OT to the Magic in their last outing, the market has made the Wizards +20.5 underdogs. One of the 10 biggest underdogs in NBA history.
If we look at the 25 times any team has been a 19.5+ underdog, those games have hit 72% Unders (O/U of 7-18), going Under by an average of 8.2 points per game.
With Trae Young recently saying he wants to compete and isn't here to tank. A matchup against the conference's perennial powerhouse offers the best opportunity to illustrate that, both as an individual player and as a team leader.
With Jayson Tatum still working himself back, the pace question matters. Tatum—while arguably the Celtics' best player on both sides of the ball — has historically been linked to lower scoring and slower pace, operating in the half-court and taking his time in isolation far more than the replacement offensive options Boston leaned on in his absence. Two of his three games this year have gone Under. The Celtics are generally less likely to turn the game into a track meet when Tatum is running the offense.
The play: Under.