HOU Rockets 1st Quarter +2.5 -130
(Okay at +1.5 EV)
Rockets are in the dreaded spot of being on the second night of a back-to-back at Denver. Teams in this spot like the Rockets are only 44% ATS since 2012 and only 43% ATS since 2021. However, that flips in the 1Q where teams generally don't feel the attrition of playing with no days off an NBA game at altitude.
Teams in the Rockets' spot are 53% ATS in the 1Q since 2012, 55% since 2021, and 3-2 this year. This isn't enough to blindly bet, but it's clear evidence that the bad spot isn't something to steer clear from in the 1Q.
The reason for the bet to game is the ludicrous spread.
I think it comes down to biased public perception. The Rockets are discussed as major disappointments despite having a better record and better stats. Houston is 40-24, one game ahead of Denver's 39-26 in the loss column, and the Rockets have won two of three head-to-head matchups. The Dream Shake recently called Houston's season "an abject disaster" and "a disappointment by any measure" before conceding the Rockets will likely have homecourt in the first round. Their post-VanVleet-injury preseason win total was 52.5 — they're projected to win 52.
I would agree they have better championship potential but are they playing better?
These teams have played nearly equivalently on the season, by any reasonable calibration, I think. YTD the Rockets have a +6 CTG Net Rating while the Nuggets are at +3.4. Given Jokic missed a month and Aaron Gordon just came back - those numbers are I think pretty much exactly what we would expect preseason, considering each team's talent. If we look at something like Dunks and 3s Full Strength Team Ratings, where the Rockets are at +5.5 and the Nuggets are at +5.2. That feels about right to me.
Neither team should be without any key player (not including those done for the year). Jamal Murray is questionable as always and should play.
Isolating the first quarter is the best way to take advantage of this line that I would argue is 3 points off.
🎯 PLAY: Rockets 1st Quarter +2.5 -130 (Okay at +1.5 at +100)