Lakers / Thunder OVER 222.5
We are making a contrarian play by backing the undermanned Lakers and Thunder to go Over 222.5 in their Monday matchup.
Yes, both teams are without their best offensive players — and the market has heavily accounted for that. Luka for the Lakers is OUT, as well as SGA for the Thunder — and the result is that this total of 222.5 is 8 points lower than the average total of these teams’ last four matchups over the past two seasons.
However, while their individual offenses may be worse, there is a strong argument that this will not necessarily lead to a lower-scoring game, as scoring is dictated by pace as much as scoring efficiency.
First, the numbers.
The Lakers are 8-1 to the Over without Luka this season, with only Saturday’s game vs. the Steph-less Warriors going Under. This is all about pace. Without Luka, the Lakers have to get shots up sooner, as they do not have him in the halfcourt to unlock defensive weaknesses. The Lakers are scoring 3 more points than Vegas expectations per game without Luka, and Lakers opponents are scoring 6 more points than Vegas expected in these spots.
With the Thunder, this is the fifth game this season they are playing without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and they are 3-1 to the Over in those games.
In these games, the Thunder have scored essentially in line with expectations and have allowed 2 more points than expected.
The entire NBA becomes less efficient later in the shot clock, but this is especially true when non-star players get stuck with a low amount of time on the clock. The solution? Without their halfcourt surgeons, these teams have to press every offensive advantage they have. These teams rely on getting worse shots up faster — leading to more scoring overall.
The Thunder get Jalen Williams back, and while his offensive metrics individually have been poor this season, the Thunder are 13-11 to the Over in his games. Moreover, when he first came back, the Thunder went Over in their first four games. This coincides with our theory here, as Jalen Williams looks to push the pace and get shots up to re-establish his offensive rhythm. If these shots go in, great. If they miss and lead to long rebounds and an up-and-down game, lack of efficiency has not led to less scoring to the degree the market is implying.
🎯 PLAY: Lakers / Thunder OVER 222.5