Lakers -4 over Warriors
Nearly fully healthy team vs. a scratched-together, bad-news-bears Warriors team "hoping" to get Draymond Green back, without Jimmy Butler for the season and still without Steph Curry. I am on the team that is going to win; I think they cover.
Early, early in the summer - even before it was announced LeBron James would be out for the Lakers to start the season - bookmakers had priced this matchup with fully healthy expectations for both teams.
The Lakers opened as 3.5-point favorites.
Same line as now.
Here is what stacks up that might have impacted the Lakers to be favored by more. Let’s see both lists and address if we think the line should be the same.
>Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler are no longer participating for GSW.
>Draymond Green has regressed to be a replacement-level performer by >most metrics (and he is questionable with an injury as well).
>Jonathan Kuminga flamed out and was traded. His replacement, Kristaps Porzingis, is also out with injury.
>The Warriors overall, even given health, have disappointed.
Here is what has happened that might make the Lakers favored less:
>Home court has flipped from Chase Center to Oracle.
>The Lakers overall have disappointed (to about the same degree as the Warriors).
Home court advantage (the only positive for GSW in this game) matters less than ever before. In the regular season, home teams have won <50% ATS in 6 of the last 7 years and <49% in 5 of those 7 years. This year, where home teams are just 48.7% ATS, the average SU margin of a home team is only +1.2. The only season with a smaller HCA was the bubble. Blame lackluster crowds or credit improved traveling and scheduling - the result is the market has not caught up with the modern HCA.
The Warriors this year are 7-14 SU & ATS without Curry in the lineup; their average line has been +3.2. Expect the Lakers to snap out of their funk and continue the Warriors’ struggles.
🎯 PLAY: Lakers -4