Denver Nuggets +8 @ OKC
SGA is back for the Thunder tonight — but is he Shai yet?
This spread mirrors last year’s Western Conference Game 7 in Oklahoma City — an elimination game with maximum urgency and a fully ramped Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In that game Aaron Gordon was active but clearly compromised by injury, functionally limiting his impact. In this game he remains out for the Nuggets, so we can essentially say we have the same line with the same relative teams.
However, even though on paper we might expect a similar power rating difference, there is one major difference in this game: SGA is returning from an abdominal strain and likely not in peak rhythm form.
A consistent angle we’ve come back to over the years applies here: a ball-dominant guard returns from extended time off and the market gives the team full credit immediately in the spread.
However, the more ball-dominant the player, the less immediate the impact tends to be. Two reasons: first, the player himself is rarely in top form; second, his team has built habits and methods to replace what SGA brings at point guard — so his teammates are equally out of rhythm returning to a different playing style.
SGA’s presence is an upgrade for OKC. However, I would estimate his value for this particular game at half that — 3.5 points instead of 7.
Add in that the Nuggets have played this team close (9-7 ATS over the last 3 seasons), and the fact our model likes them — they've played better recently despite worse shooting variance — and everything lines up to say there is value on DEN.Add in the Nuggets have played this team close (9-7 ATS over the last 3 seasons) and the fact our model likes them - they've played better recently dewspite worse shooting variance - and everything lines up to say value on DEN.
🎯PLAY: Nuggets +8