Detroit Pistons -8
Love the spot to back the Pistons, coming off an off-shooting night and a rare loss vs. the Spurs. Love the spot also to fade the Thunder here, who have been on the good side of shooting variance for and against in recent games without SGA and are prone to regress offensively.
The Thunder under Mark Daigneault almost always play hard. However, human psychology is human psychology, and if ever there was one, I think this is the instance where the Thunder take a planned night off.
Teams with WP% > 75 that are 7+ dogs on a b2b are 1-6 ATS since 2021, falling 8.4 points below expectation.
It might be one small subset, but I think it's telling on what kind of game we have here. The undermanned Thunder just went up to Canada and earned a win as a small underdog. They are now on a b2b vs. the top team in the East.
On the other hand, the Pistons just lost a close game to a fully healthy Spurs team on home court 2 days ago and will be itching to get back in the winning column. Pistons are 9-4 ATS off a loss this season, and 31-18 in two years with head coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Since 1996, looking at all teams in this spot — a top team (75%+ win%) that just lost a game as a favorite and is now 7+ point favorites at home in their next game: 57% ATS over a 280-game sample.
The Pistons aren't a great shooting team — but another 7-36 outing from 3-point range is very unlikely. Some of that was bad luck and also much of that Cade Cunningham being unaccustomed to going against Wemby on the inside, forcing him and the rest of the Pistons to settle too often.
I think Cunningham learns from his experience in the last game by taking a different approach vs. Chet and company in this match-up. Lay the points with the Pistons in this advantageous "get right spot".
🎯 PLAY: Pistons -8 (Okay at -8.5)