New Orleans Pelicans 1st Quarter +0.5
Going back to the well backing the Pelicans in an excellent spot vs. a still Steph-less Warrior squad.
Since January 9th, around the time Zion stopped missing games, the Pelicans are 14-5-2 ATS in the 1Q, covering by +1.2 points per. This massive overperformance to start the game comes while they have largely met expectations overall (10-9 ATS, 8-11 SU). This pattern is one we have seen with Zion teams throughout the years. Call it lack of conditioning, call it a quirky style of attack which takes teams a minute to catch up with, whatever it is, the data is clear that Zion’s teams are especially effective in the 1Q, this year being no exception.
On the other hand, the Warriors have been awful in the 1Q this season, especially without Steph Curry. Overall, the Warriors are 21-35-1 ATS in the 1Q and only 6-12 ATS in games without Steph.
While the Warriors got hot and made 21 threes at home vs. the Nuggets in their last game out, I don’t think they have solved any of their offensive woes other than hoping to get hot from downtown.
Add in the Warriors are on their first game of a cross country trip while the pelicans are coming out two days rest and a home game - add in the Warriors being down yet another key player with Al Horford out for this game - and I love our chances…
🎯 PLAY: Pelicans 1st Quarter +0.5