San Antonio Spurs -18 over Sacramento Kings
The model again loves the Spurs here and I agree. Laying 18 points seems like a lot of points, but I don't think it's enough! One of the variables my model looks at is recent margins in X amount of games. Here we have a near historic mark when it comes to these two teams and their respective performances in their last 4 games.
By this metric, San Antonio is a +20.25 and their opponent, the Kings, are a -24.25. That +44.5 points for the Spurs is the 3rd largest mark of any team I've tracked over the 6 seasons I have run through this model (thousands of games).
Of the 6 instances where a +40 gap between the teams in their last 4 occurred, the teams with the big plus number went 4-2 SU & ATS, covering by +8.0 points per game. Even including two upset losses, these teams won by an average of 20.8 points per game. The 4 teams that won in this spot won by an average of 30.
I would argue that both the Spurs overperformance and the Kings underperformance is more telling as signal of their performance level going forward and less noise, thus validating the model's predictions.
The Kings responded to a franchise-worst losing streak by shelving their best 2 and most expensive players.
The Spurs have been the surprise team of the season and have gotten better each month, coalescing around arguably the world's best two-way player.
The Kings playing style, as demonstrated against the Magic, is throwing things against the wall and seeing what's stick. After leaving the first quarter with a 10-point lead, Sacramento allowed 46 to the Magic in the 2nd quarter alone and was blown out thoroughly from then on.
The Kings, still a professional outfit (allegedly), may play the Spurs close for large stretches of this game. But the Spurs will break it open in 1 or 2 runs, and the Kings will have no ability or interest in closing the gap late.
Lay the Lumber. PLAY: Spurs -18