Dallas Mavericks Team Total Under 112.5
This will be the 6th game the Mavericks have played without Cooper Flagg — who has become increasingly instrumental to the Mavericks’ offensive plan as the season has progressed. Anthony Davis was shipped out of town, and Kyrie Irving never returned and was recently officially shut down for the season. In those five games, the Mavericks have gone Under their team total in three of them, and the other two games were against the Jazz, who were just reprimanded by the league for essentially not trying. Stats against them should be held with a major asterisk. In the other three games without Flagg, the Mavericks averaged 106.7 points, going 6.1 points below their Vegas team total on average.
The Timberwolves’ defense has been as good as ever at home — and much worse than in recent seasons on the road. This season the Timberwolves are allowing 120 points per game on the road vs. 109.8 at home. Last season that split was 108.4 allowed at home vs. 109.3 on the road. So while the metrics will show they have taken a major step back defensively, almost all of that difference is because of their lack of quality defense played this season on the road. Here, back at home after the All-Star break, I expect them to lock in and dominate an undermanned Mavericks offense.
Teams in general are prone to an Under in this spot. Since changing the AS break format to an extended one-week break, NBA teams have gone Under in 60% of games in their first game back, including eight out of ten games on Thursday’s card.
If we isolate just totals above 230 in these years, we get 72% Unders (40-16-2). We think this makes sense, as teams are out of rhythm and unable to match the historical scoring acumen that has defined this recent era. Remember, totals above 230 used to be incredibly rare. If the three-point shooting contest that is the regular season has helped teams reach unseen-before scoring efficiency and rhythm, it would make sense that rhythm is disrupted more than expected by a week off.
I like the Timberwolves to take advantage of the opportunity to flex their defensive muscles after the break and hold the Mavericks below 112.5 here.
🎯 PLAY: Mavericks Team Total UNDER 112.5