Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 1st Quarter (-133) (OK at +1.5 ~ -110)
This year, teams playing in the immediate revenge spot—facing the same opponent that just beat them in their previous game—are 16-13-1 ATS, good for 55.6% for the full game. On average, these teams are covering the full-game spread by 2.2 points and are exceeding expectations by 1.8 points in the first quarter. This aligns with what we have seen historically. Since tracking this angle long term, teams in immediate revenge spots have covered by 0.4 points for the full game and 0.5 points in the first quarter, meaning they tend to exceed expectations early but underperform relative to expectation later in the game.
If we isolate only situations where both games are played at home, the edge becomes more pronounced. Since 2012, teams in this subset are covering by 1.0 point for the full game and by 1.5 points in the first quarter, going over 60% ATS in the 1Q (72-45-4). We love isolating that early-game edge here.
Yes, the Grizzlies have been sliding, losing six straight. However, this is actually an excellent subset within the immediate revenge spot when the rematch is played at home again. Teams that have lost six straight entering this situation are 5-1-1 ATS in the first quarter since 2012, covering that individual quarter by a massive 5.2 points per game. Historically, this is exactly when the market tends to count teams out, and it is often the point where they begin to bounce back. While putting the injured Ja Morant on the trade block has clearly disrupted the team, this also creates space for young players like Cedric Coward to take the next step as consistent leaders and run-stoppers for this squad.
There are multiple ways to play this. I am buying the extra point for 25 cents here, as the half-points around zero in quarter bets I believe are undervalued in the marketplace. Getting +2.5 at -133 is excellent value. If that number is not available at your book, +1.5 at -110 is also excellent value.
🎯 PLAY: Grizzlies 1st Quarter +2.5 (Okay down to +1.5)