San Antonio Spurs -7.5 vs Phoenix Suns
Our NBA model likes the Spurs to keep rolling here — and I agree.
The Spurs’ excellent season has seen a recent uptick, dominating their last four games before the break despite not shooting especially well from three in those contests. Meanwhile, the Suns have faltered and now look closer to their YTD baseline than their peak rating earlier in the year.
I think there are clear reasons these team trends will continue. Both of these teams YTD have zoomed past expectations. However, the Spurs turnaround has been more player-based than schematic. Victor Wembanyama has continued to vault into the Best-Player-of-the-World-bar-none category despite just having turned 22. The Spurs guards — anchored by De'Aaron Fox alongside rising young playmakers Stephon Castle and No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper — have taken a real step forward as secondary creators and defensive playmakers, giving San Antonio far more functional offense around Wembanyama than most projections assumed. And their forwards have impressed to the degree they felt comfortable moving on from long-term project Jeremy Sochan.
Phoenix has also seen player overperformance, but their first half of the season has been defined more by the strategic overhaul executed by new head coach Jordan Ott. That type of change tends to show diminishing returns as teams become more accustomed to what to expect. The Suns are just 4–7 ATS (-5.7 ATS margin) in their last 11 games against opponents they’ve already faced this season. Give the Spurs an extra week to watch film and prepare, and it becomes that much harder to surprise or outscheme the more talented group.
One of the Suns players who has overperformed expectations is F Dillon Brooks, who will be out due to suspension after picking up his 16th tech. Brooks’ +0.9 EPM is his best mark since 2021–22, and he has proven to be the Suns’ most important two-way player. Especially in this matchup against the athletic guards of the Spurs, Phoenix will struggle to execute its heavy ball-pressure strategy while undermanned.
🎯PLAY: San Antonio Spurs -7.5