Oklahoma City Thunder / Milwaukee Bucks Over 214.5
The Thunder are now 5–1 to the Over this season without SGA.
As we explained in our recent Play of the Day backing Lakers/Thunder Over, losing a primary scorer does not automatically lead to lower totals. Without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to control the halfcourt, Oklahoma City is forced to push pace and get worse shots up faster — and that often leads to more scoring overall, not less.
To reiterate the reasoning here on why we think the Thunder are prone to go Over without SGA: the entire NBA becomes less efficient later in the shot clock, but this is especially true when non-star players get stuck with limited time. The solution is simple — the Thunder press every offensive advantage they have early in possessions, leading to faster pace and more total points.
Although we do not see the same pattern when Giannis misses games (Bucks games have an average OU margin of -0.5 when Giannis misses), there is a reason Milwaukee will be much more offensively focused and effective going forward since they added Cam Thomas. In his debut game, the turbo-charged small guard scorer put up 36 points on Wednesday as the Bucks game with the defense-oriented Magic flew over the total.
The addition of Cam Thomas helps us on both sides here, as he is clearly the most potent scorer on the Bucks since joining and is also historically a liability on the defensive side, which the Thunder guards will thrive on attacking. During each of his five seasons with the Nets, opponents scored +3.5 to +6.8 more points per 100 possessions with Thomas on the court versus off.
Finally, we have a growing historical trend around the last NBA games before the All-Star break. With many teams playing their final game before the break on Wednesday, totals went 9–5 to the Over. Since the league expanded the All-Star break to a full week off in 2021, Overs in teams’ final games before the break have hit at 60.1% (89–59, average OU margin of +2.4).
🎯PLAY: OKC/ Milwaukee OVER 214.5