Charlotte Hornets -4.5 vs Atlanta Hawks
Despite missing 2 key players, the Hornets have more than enough depth to continue their excellent play in 2026 on both sides of the ball. The Hornets will be without Miles Bridges and Moussa Diabaté due to suspensions handed down Wednesday. We have seen the line here drop a point from CHA -5.5 to CHA -4.5 based on the news. I have Bridges worth a solid half-point and one could argue with the recent play of Diabaté, the combo deserves 1 point of value in most circumstances.
However, the Hornets did not lose LaMelo Ball to suspension as some had speculated due to his involvement during the scuffle with the Pistons. And the Hornets still have their top three players in Ball, Kon Knueppel and Miles Bridges.
I think the injuries pale in comparison to the excellent get-right spot for the Hornets here. The Hornets will be rearing to get back on a winning track after having their bid for a record-tying 10th consecutive win busted by the visiting Pistons. Home teams who have just had their 7+ game winning streak broken are 62% ATS (72-45-4) since 2012. That improves to 65% ATS (63-34-4) when home favorites.
This follows several of our fundamental handicapping principles.
First, we prioritize recent upticks in performance that the market hasn’t fully priced in. Power ratings tend to lean heavily on season-long data, but teams evolve. When a previously average group strings together dominant results — without fluky shooting driving it — that can signal a legitimate shift in baseline quality. The Hornets’ recent run fits that profile.
Second, we like motivated favorites. Yes, favorites are better teams by definition. But complacency often keeps spreads efficient. In this case, Charlotte has just been reminded that nothing is automatic. When a long win streak ends at home, it sharpens focus. Teams in this spot tend to respond with urgency rather than relaxation.
At -4.5 or -4 we have excellent value on Charlotte tonight.
🎯 PLAY: Charlotte Hornets -4.5