LA Clippers +8.5 vs. Rockets
The Clippers have been massively downgraded by the Vegas market after their trades of James Harden and Ivan Zubac just prior to the trade deadline.
On paper, it does look like, despite their remarkable season turnaround, that they were punting on this season — exchanging highly paid veteran players for younger players and draft assets. But the numbers on the ground tell a different story — and I think there are a lot of indications that the Clippers should push the Rockets to the limit in this match-up despite getting +8.5 points on the spread.
Let’s take each transaction individually as I build the case that the Clippers are much closer to the Rockets than the market indicates.
Yes, Ivan Zubac was an All-NBA player last year, essential to the Clippers’ defensive turnaround. However, this season they have a viable Plan B in Brook Lopez, whose defensive prowess might be a solid facsimile of what Zubac provided. And while his offense is more limited at this point in his career as a pick-and-pop guy, that additional spacing might make up some of that difference.
The Clippers are 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS in games this year without Ivan Zubac. In a very related stat, the Clippers are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in any game this season where Brook Lopez plays 20+ minutes. One of those wins came in blowout fashion vs. these Houston Rockets.
The Clippers’ record is more mixed this year without James Harden, only 4-4 SU & ATS in games this year without him. However, they are much better defensively (+1.5 on the season) when Harden is off the court, and with Kawhi Leonard picking up the slack with his offensive surge over the past month (Kawhi is #1 in PPG in the NBA in February), LAC may prove to be as good or better overall.
The Clippers are also debuting Bennedict Mathurin in this game, who should provide a jolt of offense coming off the bench. While I am wary of backing highly important players returning to a team - I feel like his specific role of being a spark plug scorer is much more likely to be immediately additive.
The last 30 days the Clippers are 11-4 with a +3.3 Net Rating, while the Rockets are 10-6 with a +0.2 net rating.
Let's capitalize on this mispricing before the market adjusts. With Lopez stabilizing the defense, Kawhi carrying the offense, and Mathurin adding juice off the bench, I think the Clippers are live to win outright — and +8.5 is far too many points.
🎯 PLAY: Clippers +8.5 (-115)