Houston Rockets -2.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs
I have the Rockets 7 points better than an average team, whereas I have the Spurs 5 points better than an average team. A 2-point difference. I subtract half a point from the Rockets due to not having Steven Adams. The Dunks and Threes EPM metric agrees with this assessment, giving Adams a value of +0.5 this season. The Spurs do not have any injuries that move the line.
That makes a 1.5-point net difference. Give the Rockets a standard 2-point advantage for being at home, and we expect a fair line to be HOU -3.5, not -2.5. Already, we have a point of value.
Before getting to the matchup, I want to defend my power ratings from the many, looking at you Zach Lowe, who have elevated the Spurs to the same tier as or above the Rockets based on results we’ve seen this season. Yes, the Spurs have the better record. We don’t care. The core difference between me and Lowe is that I think record is much less representative of overall play than Net Rating, which measures pace-adjusted scoring margin.
While the Spurs have the better record, the Rockets have the notably better scoring margin. Cleaning the Glass Net Rating, which removes garbage time, shows Houston at +7.1 compared to +4.9 for San Antonio. Much of the Spurs’ rise in perception can be traced to three high-profile wins over the Oklahoma City Thunder, a stretch that has elevated them into a conversation their underlying statistics and preseason expectations do not justify.
Before you think I simply take the CTG Net Rating as my power rating, that is not the case. The Spurs and Rockets were hovering around these power ratings long before their actual margins lined up. That simply shows the method is working, accurately forecasting a team’s true performance level.
People often think teams that win above or below their Net Rating are clutch or not clutch. That can be part of the story. For example, a team with a near-neutral Net Rating but a much better than .500 record is likely winning close games, like the Los Angeles Lakers, who are undefeated in games decided by three points or fewer. But the much bigger reason scoring margin is more representative of future performance than record is sample size.
Record is a discrete number of games, roughly 40 so far this season, 82 over a full year. Scoring margin is built on thousands of possessions. Injuries, garbage time, and schedule affect scoring margin, but the same is true of record, and the effects are much greater for record simply because of the smaller sample.
Additionally, as we saw in their Jan 20 matchup, where the Rockets held the Spurs to 65 points over the last 3 quarters, the Rockets’ size and athleticism have proven to be the right antidote to what the Spurs want to do offensively. The Rockets are 6-3 straight up and against the spread against Victor Wembanyama in his career, holding the Spurs 4.5 points per game below their Vegas expectation.
🎯 Play: Rockets -2.5