Buddy Hield Over 8.5 Points (-115)
Jimmy Butler had a cheesy smile walking to the bench, dealing with the gravity of his season and likely this phase of his career as a premier NBA player being over. No doubt he was choosing to smile through the pain, appreciating the big picture.
Perhaps his teammate Buddy Hield should have been the one with the million-dollar grin on. Butler's injury is only the latest development that has thrust Hield into a central role for this team battling to maintain playoff contention.
Hield has cleared 8.5 points in all six games without Jimmy Butler, averaging 13.2 PPG across six games. In yesterday’s game, after Butler exited with 7:41 left in the third quarter, Hield scored 11 points and added 2 assists the rest of the way, finishing the game with 19.
The market has adjusted this prop modestly, moving Hield’s line from 6.5 on Monday to 8.5 on Tuesday. But it's not enough and this prop will likely be over/under 11.5 in games coming up soon. In games without Butler this season, Hield is scoring 5.6 more points per game than his season average and taking a massive 5.2 more shots per game, both the largest increases on the team when playing without JB.
It’s true that five of the six Butler-out games also came without Steph Curry, which complicates simple comparisons. However, in the one game with Curry but without Butler, Hield still posted 14 points on 5-for-8 shooting, showing the usage bump isn’t purely a Curry-absence effect.
With Kuminga receiving DNP-CDs since before he loudly requested a trade (again), Golden State is thin on trusted wing scorers. That leaves Hield as one of the few perimeter options this staff is clearly willing to lean on. At 8.5, this number still prices him closer to his season role than his current one.