DET PG Cade Cunningham Under 26.5 Points
Cunningham has averaged 27.7 points per game this season in six games without Jalen Duren, who made his return from suspension against the Bulls in the Pistons’ last game. In 43 games with Duren — the null condition — Cunningham is averaging just 25.2 PPG, more than 2 points lower than this number.
Right away, setting this at 27.5 feels like too much credit for Cade’s recent scoring outburst — a stretch that came while Detroit was simultaneously without both Duren and backup big Isaiah Stewart. That forced Cunningham into a more aggressive scoring mentality while also removing interior outlets when he got into the paint.
Now those outlets are back.
This will be Cunningham’s first career game against Victor Wembanyama. If we look at other players with a similar inside-out scoring profile, we see a clear drop-off in average scoring production.
I pulled a handful of comps that fit Cunningham’s mold as high-volume combo guards who get most of their points in and around the paint:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Luka Dončić
Tyrese Haliburton
Jalen Brunson
Anthony Edwards
Across 30 combined games against Wembanyama, these players went over their season scoring averages in only 13 games.
And when they did go over, it was usually accompanied by a three-point barrage — like Edwards hitting nine threes against San Antonio last month.
Could Cunningham — who’s shooting 33.9% from three this season, same as his career average — get hot from deep? Sure.
But I think it’s far more likely he slides into a more traditional PG role here, looking to distribute when faced with the best rim protector in the league.
In a marquee match-up vs. two teams with top 3 records in the league, I think the Spurs force the Pistons to beat them with scorers other than Cunningham.
🎯 Play: Cade Cunningham Under 26.5 Points