CFB Week 1 Recap & 32 in 32: New England Patriots

Scott Seidenberg recaps week 1 of the College Football season and previews tonight's SMU/Florida State game. Plus our 32 in 32 NFL team previews reaches its final 2 teams, today the New England Patriots.

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🏈 SUNDAY IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL

The Ole Miss-Louisville Under That Died in Minutes

The first half: 16 total points. Ole Miss led 10-6.

The second half: SIXTY-THREE points — more than the full game total by itself.

Scott: "This game was trending under the entire way. And then in a couple of MINUTES the under was completely dead."

The sequence: 17-16 in the third when Ole Miss hit a 62-yard touchdown pass — and sixteen seconds later Louisville answered with its OWN 62-yard touchdown pass. Ole Miss ran off back-to-back scores for 38-24, Louisville cut it to 38-31, and Lincoln Kienholz ran in the tying touchdown with about 1:30 left — before Ole Miss milked the clock and hit a 48-yard game winner.

🎯 THE TREND OF THE WEEK: TOP 25 TEAMS THAT DIDN'T COVER

Since 2021, ranked teams that fail to cover in Week 1:

Why It Works

Scott: "There's an overreaction to these teams not covering. Week one to week two in both college and the NFL is a great opportunity to fade recency bias — we only have ONE data point.

There are different ways to overreact. A team looks good, you back them. A team looks bad, you fade them. But another is to ASSUME THE BOUNCE BACK — how many times do we hear 'the Ravens aren't going to start 0-2' or 'the Bengals aren't starting 0-3'?

And in college, the people voting the top 25 honestly don't know how good these teams are yet. But that little number next to the name INFLUENCES THE MARKET. So the assumption of a bounce back is baked into the price — and the books make you pay a tax for it."

The filter: "Throw out the 40- and 50-point favorites. Tennessee winning 56-9 without covering doesn't change our opinion of Tennessee. Look at the closer games and the teams that genuinely underperformed."

🚨 THE WEEK 2 WATCH LIST

Top 25 teams that did NOT cover in Week 1: Oregon, Indiana, Houston, Missouri, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Michigan — plus Washington and Ole Miss from Sunday.

The Spots Scott Flagged

⭐ Oklahoma State +22.5 vs Oregon — "Oregon laying 22.5 on the road in Stillwater against an 0-1 team that didn't look good. That might be a dangerous spot. Oklahoma State might be the play with that many points."

⭐ Oregon State +26.5 vs Texas Tech — "Texas Tech was a heavy favorite over Abilene Christian and only won 33-10. Now they go to Corvallis for a tough NIGHT game — teams have had a difficult time there. I'm not saying upset alert, but maybe we look toward the Beavers."

Also watch: Utah State +26.5 at Washington.

📈 Michigan Line on the Move

Michigan +6 at Oklahoma — "The look-ahead line had Michigan +1.5. Now Oklahoma is a SIX-point favorite. A clear overreaction.

I'm not betting Michigan — Bryce Underwood looked terrible, his mechanics are terrible, and I wouldn't be surprised by a quarterback change at some point. But seeing the market move that much almost begs you to take the points."

(On Michigan generally: "They do not deserve to be a top 25 team. Anybody who votes them into the top 25 this week should have their vote taken away.")

⭐ TONIGHT: SMU -2.5 AT FLORIDA STATE

Total: 53.5

The Case

Scott: "Florida State allowed New Mexico State to pass all over them — that's what concerned me reviewing the game. 272 passing yards for NEW MEXICO STATE. Trey Hedden went 26/42 with two touchdowns.

Kevin Jennings and SMU should be able to throw all over this team, and that's the difference tonight."

The Trench Report

"SMU has a sizable edge overall — but the biggest single edge in the game is SMU's PASS BLOCKING. If it holds up and Jennings gets time, there's a play on his passing props."

🏈 32 IN 32: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Win total: 9.5 (over -135) | Super Bowl rematch vs Seattle, Wednesday

Scott spoke with Christopher Price of the Boston Globe on VSiN's Live Bet Sunday.

🏥 THE LOAD MANAGEMENT PHILOSOPHY

On TreVeyon Henderson (didn't practice): "He took a spill on August 24th and hasn't been around since. His people say it's not as serious as people expect — a lot of us look at this as precautionary.

And here's what's important: with the Patriots this year, we're going to have to get comfortable with guys missing practices late in the week, because Vrabel is doing this LOAD MANAGEMENT thing — he's worried about depth on the roster. AJ Brown, Morgan Moses, guys who've been around. If Henderson doesn't go, it's the Rhamondre Stevenson show."

🎯 THE ZERO-PRESEASON-SNAPS QUESTION

Drake Maye Did NOT participate in any preseason games.

Price: "They had really spirited joint practices — one with the Colts, a pair with the Eagles — and those showed Vrabel he's good to go. It's a little surprising, and it falls into that load management stuff. And it's not just Drake Maye — there's a handful of Patriots on BOTH sides of the ball who didn't take a single preseason snap."

⭐ THE PROP ANGLE: DOUBS OVER BROWN IN WEEK 1

Price: The Maye-Dobbs connection has been very impressive — absolutely dynamite in joint practices, through training camp and OTAs. He has more of a body of work with the quarterback, and that's going to show Wednesday night."

Also flagged: Rhamondre Stevenson has a chance to be the first Patriots back since James White with 30+ catches four years in a row — "a talented pair of hands out of the backfield. A guy you want to look for Wednesday."

What's Different From the Super Bowl

Price: "The passing game is far superior to the one that left the field at the end of Super Bowl 60. The way it operates, the crispness — very, very impressive through the spring and summer. It took a quantum leap forward with Brown and Doubs.

If they keep those five offensive linemen healthy — and Will Campbell coming back off the knee injury that really led to his poor performance in the Super Bowl — that group is pretty good. If they hold up long enough to give Maye time to operate, that's the biggest thing."

On defending Seattle: "A lot of uncertainty — new offensive coordinator, and a new running back. They really had problems with Kenneth Walker in the Super Bowl, so if you're a Patriots fan you feel relatively good swapping him for a rookie, even behind a good line.

The Patriots are a really good front four team — they don't have much of a pass rush, but they have an excellent combination on the back end. Gonzalez, Kyle Dugger, Marcus Jones. That secondary is going to keep things competitive Wednesday night."

The Brutal Opening Stretch

Three of the first four on the road, with the lone home game against Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, then Jacksonville and at Buffalo.

Price's call: 2-2 

"There is a path to ten or eleven wins — but it's WHOLLY dependent on dominating their division. They need to go 5-1 or 6-0. And that starts with that first divisional game in Buffalo."

📅 THIS WEEK

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