> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Monday, September 7th, 2026 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/monday-september-7th-2026/ - Published: 2026-09-07T10:00:08.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-07T10:00:08.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## CFB Week 1 Recap & 32 in 32: New England Patriots *Scott Seidenberg recaps week 1 of the College Football season and previews tonight's SMU/Florida State game. Plus our 32 in 32 NFL team previews reaches its final 2 teams, today the New England Patriots.* [![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! [Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) ## 🏈 SUNDAY IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL | Game | Result | | ---------------------------------- | ---------------------------------- | | Washington 24, Washington State 10 | Won, **did NOT cover** | | **Notre Dame 41, Wisconsin 13** | Won and covered (Lambeau) | | **Ole Miss 41, Louisville 38** | Last-second field goal (Nashville) | --- ### The Ole Miss-Louisville Under That Died in Minutes **The first half: 16 total points.** Ole Miss led 10-6. **The second half: SIXTY-THREE points** — more than the full game total by itself. **Scott:** "This game was trending under the entire way. **And then in a couple of MINUTES the under was completely dead.**" **The sequence:** 17-16 in the third when Ole Miss hit a **62-yard touchdown pass** — and **sixteen seconds later Louisville answered with its OWN 62-yard touchdown pass.** Ole Miss ran off back-to-back scores for 38-24, Louisville cut it to 38-31, and **Lincoln Kienholz ran in the tying touchdown with about 1:30 left** — before Ole Miss milked the clock and hit a **48-yard game winner.** --- # 🎯 THE TREND OF THE WEEK: TOP 25 TEAMS THAT DIDN'T COVER ### Since 2021, ranked teams that fail to cover in Week 1: | Situation | Week 2 Record | | --------------------------- | --------------- | | **All top 25 non-coverers** | **16-29-1 ATS** | | **When FAVORED in week 2** | **13-25-1 ATS** | --- ### Why It Works **Scott:** "**There's an overreaction to these teams not covering.** Week one to week two in both college and the NFL is a great opportunity to fade recency bias — **we only have ONE data point.** There are different ways to overreact. A team looks good, you back them. A team looks bad, you fade them. **But another is to ASSUME THE BOUNCE BACK** — how many times do we hear 'the Ravens aren't going to start 0-2' or 'the Bengals aren't starting 0-3'? **And in college, the people voting the top 25 honestly don't know how good these teams are yet. But that little number next to the name INFLUENCES THE MARKET.** So the assumption of a bounce back is baked into the price — **and the books make you pay a tax for it.**" **The filter:** "Throw out the 40- and 50-point favorites. **Tennessee winning 56-9 without covering doesn't change our opinion of Tennessee.** Look at the closer games and the teams that genuinely underperformed." --- ### 🚨 THE WEEK 2 WATCH LIST **Top 25 teams that did NOT cover in Week 1:** **Oregon, Indiana, Houston, Missouri, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Michigan** — plus **Washington and Ole Miss** from Sunday. ### The Spots Scott Flagged **⭐ Oklahoma State +22.5 vs Oregon** — "Oregon laying 22.5 on the road in Stillwater against an 0-1 team that didn't look good. **That might be a dangerous spot. Oklahoma State might be the play with that many points.**" **⭐ Oregon State +26.5 vs Texas Tech** — "Texas Tech was a heavy favorite over Abilene Christian and only won 33-10\. **Now they go to Corvallis for a tough NIGHT game** — teams have had a difficult time there. **I'm not saying upset alert, but maybe we look toward the Beavers.**" **Also watch:** Utah State +26.5 at Washington. --- ### 📈 Michigan Line on the Move **Michigan +6 at Oklahoma** — "**The look-ahead line had Michigan +1.5\. Now Oklahoma is a SIX-point favorite.** A clear overreaction. I'm not betting Michigan — **Bryce Underwood looked terrible, his mechanics are terrible**, and I wouldn't be surprised by a quarterback change at some point. **But seeing the market move that much almost begs you to take the points.**" *(On Michigan generally: "They do not deserve to be a top 25 team. *Anybody who votes them into the top 25 this week should have their vote taken away.*")* --- ## ⭐ TONIGHT: SMU -2.5 AT FLORIDA STATE **Total: 53.5** ### The Case **Scott:** "**Florida State allowed New Mexico State to pass all over them** — that's what concerned me reviewing the game. **272 passing yards for NEW MEXICO STATE.** Trey Hedden went 26/42 with two touchdowns. **Kevin Jennings and SMU should be able to throw all over this team, and that's the difference tonight.**" ### The Trench Report "SMU has a sizable edge overall — **but the biggest single edge in the game is SMU's PASS BLOCKING.** If it holds up and Jennings gets time, there's a play on his passing props." | Bet | Line | | ------------------------------------- | ----- | | **SMU -2.5** ⭐ | — | | **Jennings OVER 1.5 passing TDs** | \-140 | | **Jennings OVER 264.5 passing yards** | — | --- # 🏈 32 IN 32: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS **Win total: 9.5 (over -135)** | Super Bowl rematch vs Seattle, **Wednesday** *Scott spoke with *Christopher Price of the Boston Globe* on VSiN's Live Bet Sunday.* --- ## 🏥 THE LOAD MANAGEMENT PHILOSOPHY **On TreVeyon Henderson (didn't practice):** "He took a spill on August 24th and hasn't been around since. **His people say it's not as serious as people expect** — a lot of us look at this as precautionary. **And here's what's important: with the Patriots this year, we're going to have to get comfortable with guys missing practices late in the week, because Vrabel is doing this LOAD MANAGEMENT thing — he's worried about depth on the roster.** AJ Brown, Morgan Moses, guys who've been around. **If Henderson doesn't go, it's the Rhamondre Stevenson show.**" --- ## 🎯 THE ZERO-PRESEASON-SNAPS QUESTION *Drake Maye Did NOT participate in any preseason games.* **Price:** "They had really spirited joint practices — **one with the Colts, a pair with the Eagles** — and those showed Vrabel he's good to go. **It's a little surprising, and it falls into that load management stuff.** And it's not just Drake Maye — **there's a handful of Patriots on BOTH sides of the ball who didn't take a single preseason snap.**" --- ## ⭐ THE PROP ANGLE: DOUBS OVER BROWN IN WEEK 1 **Price:** The Maye-Dobbs connection has been very impressive — **absolutely dynamite in joint practices, through training camp and OTAs. He has more of a body of work with the quarterback, and that's going to show Wednesday night.**" **Also flagged:** **Rhamondre Stevenson** has a chance to be the first Patriots back since James White with **30+ catches four years in a row** — "a talented pair of hands out of the backfield. **A guy you want to look for Wednesday.**" --- ## What's Different From the Super Bowl **Price:** "**The passing game is far superior to the one that left the field at the end of Super Bowl 60.** The way it operates, the crispness — very, very impressive through the spring and summer. **It took a quantum leap forward with Brown and Doubs.** **If they keep those five offensive linemen healthy — and Will Campbell coming back off the knee injury that really led to his poor performance in the Super Bowl — that group is pretty good.** If they hold up long enough to give Maye time to operate, **that's the biggest thing.**" **On defending Seattle:** "**A lot of uncertainty — new offensive coordinator, and a new running back.** They really had problems with Kenneth Walker in the Super Bowl, **so if you're a Patriots fan you feel relatively good swapping him for a rookie**, even behind a good line. **The Patriots are a really good front four team — they don't have much of a pass rush, but they have an excellent combination on the back end.** Gonzalez, Kyle Dugger, Marcus Jones. **That secondary is going to keep things competitive Wednesday night.**" --- ## The Brutal Opening Stretch **Three of the first four on the road**, with the lone home game against Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, then **Jacksonville** and **at Buffalo.** **Price's call: 2-2** **"There is a path to ten or eleven wins — but it's WHOLLY dependent on dominating their division. They need to go 5-1 or 6-0.** And that starts with that first divisional game in Buffalo." --- ## 📅 THIS WEEK | Day | Guest | Focus | | -------------------- | ------------------------------------------ | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Tuesday** | Michael Fiddle | **32 in 32 FINALE: Seattle Seahawks** | | **Wednesday** | David Bearman | **Patriots-Seahawks same game parlay** | | **Thursday AM** | **Mackenzie Rivers** *(moved from Monday)* | **Rams-49ers SGP** — Mac's team | | **Thursday 2 PM ET** | **🎬 THE FOOTBALL SHOW** | **Scott, Fezzik & AJ HOFFMAN — the band back together.** NFL opener recap, TNF preview, the full Week 1 card, and CFB Week 2 | **Become a Bettor Day Insider or Premium Member?** [**See both tiers →**](https://bettorday.com/membership/?ref=bettorday.com) --- ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/08/app-promo-newsletter-horizontal.png) **The Bettor Day app is now available on BOTH** [**Apple**](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/bettor-day/id6783427144%20Bettor%20Day?ref=bettorday.com) **and** [**Google Play**](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.bettorday.app&ref=bettorday.com) --- [ Bettor Day Exclusive Sportsbook Promos Promo Codes, Unlocked For You We've partnered with top sportsbooks to bring exclusive sign-up offers to the Bettor Day community. 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