NFL Week 3 Sunday Recap & MNF Same Game Parlay

Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers recap a wild NFL Sunday and look ahead to the Week 4 market reactions. Plus a Same Game Parlay for Monday Night Football between the Bears and Eagles.

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🏈 BRONCOS 30, RAMS 26 — AND A CLOCK MANAGEMENT CLINIC (THE BAD KIND)

The Rams led 16-0 at half. The Broncos scored 16 unanswered in the third quarter — two touchdowns and two two-point conversions — then won it on a defensive stop on the final play.

Denver is 2-1. The Super Bowl favorite Rams (not anymore) are 1-2.

Mackenzie's Takeaway: Stafford

"I don't think Matthew Stafford has it. I think he's kind of regressed back.

I know it's a talisman stat, but he now leads the league in PICK SIXES — and that was the difference in the game.

The Broncos got OUTGAINED by two hundred yards. They were bad on the ground, bad in the air — 50% completion percentage, under 200 yards passing versus almost 400 for the Rams. They also went 100% on two-point conversions. They definitely got lucky.

The Rams are the better team. Stafford gave them a chance to lose, and they lost."

🕐 THE MADDEN PLAYER LESSON

Scott: "I don't know how NFL coaches don't understand simple things that a teenager playing Madden would understand. And that is: FORCE YOUR OPPONENT TO USE THEIR TIMEOUTS."

The Sequence

The result: the Rams got the kickoff with 47 seconds and ONE timeout. They should have had none.

Scott: "The Rams got to the Denver 14 with two seconds left. It would have been nice if they didn't have that timeout.”

🚨 THE MOST HISTORIC LOSS OF THE SEASON: BILLS 24, CHARGERS 16

The Bills turned it over five times and WON.

📊 The Evan Abrams (Action Network) Stat

Since 2013, teams with 5+ turnovers and a negative-four turnover differential are 3-81-1 straight up.

All three losses:

Mackenzie on Herbert: 25 QBR

"I heard a lot of excuses. Maybe their offensive line isn't the best. Their running backs are just above average — okay, that's better than half the teams. Their receivers don't seem terrible.

They said he only made one really bad mistake. Okay. THAT'S THE DIFFERENCE between elite quarterbacks and average quarterbacks like Jameis Winston who can wow you now and then.

Third down, up by three, in the red zone. He was not under pressure at all. Maybe nobody was open — buy a little time, throw it away, go up 16-10 and the entire game is different. Instead he throws a LOLLIPOP straight into double coverage, returned 50 yards, they end up scoring.

It's the kind of play that makes you unqualified for the category people have put Justin Herbert in for years. It's his seventh year. He's not developing anymore. This is supposed to be who he IS."

🚫 And the Fourth and Ten

"Down 16-13, fourth and ten from your own 40 with five minutes to go — it makes NO sense.

You have about a 20% chance historically, even with a great quarterback. If you don't get it, the Bills are almost guaranteed to score — which they do — and now you're down eight, grasping at straws.

Why do you distrust your defense that much? You're ONE STOP away. If you punt and they have it at the 10, they're probably trying to burn clock, and you get the ball back with a chance to win.

Total franchise-level panic. And this was the game you beat the Bills — when Josh Allen has two interceptions and no touchdowns, that's when you're supposed to beat them."

🏈 GAME BY GAME

Browns 21, Panthers 18

Deshaun Watson endears himself to the dog pound. Cleveland is 2-1.

Mackenzie: "How often in their history have they had a winning record — 20, 30% of the time? They're going to find a way to root on Deshaun Watson. He was running for his life a little bit and did some things to endear himself to the crowd. They might be decent. Look at their three games — the Jaguars are world beaters apparently, and that's the one game they really didn't have a chance to win."

Lions 31, Jets 24

The Jets keep being feisty and keep falling short — and didn't even cover.

Mackenzie: "The Lions DEFENSE is the story. How does Geno Smith go to your building and put up an 80+ QBR? They're now allowing the most points in the league of any team, despite being 2-1."

Scott: "They're scoring a ton and allowing a ton. We just need to keep playing Lions OVERS every single week this season."

Colts 19, Texans 17 — AND THE OVERCORRECTION

Scott: "More questionable calls from DeMeco Ryans — and I think this mistake was BECAUSE of last week's mistake.

He went for it on fourth down at the Indy 40 early. I think he was thinking about everyone criticizing him last week for kicking a field goal on fourth down in the third quarter.

That was a different situation. This is 0-0. GET POINTS ON THE BOARD. Go up 3-0. The third quarter is the time to be aggressive. The first quarter is the time to get points."

Mackenzie: "And it's exactly what he did last week — I think the exact same play, fullback in front of the running back running off right tackle. It ran into a pile of dust. Either they don't believe in Stroud or they have no innovation. Very uninspired."

🎯 THE 0-3 TEXANS ARE STILL A BET

Scott: "The Texans have the FOURTH EASIEST remaining schedule in the NFL. The Raiders have the fourth MOST DIFFICULT.

And last year Houston became something like the seventh team ever to start 0-3 and make the playoffs — they went 12-5 after. They don't have to go 12-5 this year. Win ten games and you make the playoffs in the AFC.

I still think the Texans are good enough, especially when Nico Collins comes back. The schedule just opens up."

Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10

The story of the Chiefs' season: Travis Kelce.

Scott: "He's leading the league in yards after catch. Another touchdown here. That's a massive boost — he was terrible last year and we all thought his career was over."

(Chiefs: +1200 to win the Super Bowl — "they haven't really changed since the beginning of the season, and I feel like they've shown a lot of good things.")

Giants 12, Titans 7

The Titans had ONE first down in the first half and SIXTEEN in the second. Good job flipping the script from Brian Daboll's defense — but with the game on the line, Cam Ward threw one of the dumbest interceptions you'll see.

Scott: "I tweeted 'Cam Ward just Cam Warded.' That's it. He did what he does." 

Steelers 30, Bengals 27

Warren ran for 127 (an under rushing yards play that lost — "boy, I got that wrong") Rodgers: 292 yards, 3 TD, and an interception off his receiver's hands.

Mackenzie's transitive property point: "We talk about this in week two — I think week three is just as informative. The Bengals had played the Buccaneers, maybe the most disappointing team in the league, and the Texans, who are also 0-3.

So maybe their defense and all those free agents were great — or maybe their defense was still kind of average. If the Steelers can score 30 on you, a lot of teams can. Big downgrade for the Bengals. I thought Aaron Rodgers was a corpse."

Commanders 33, Seahawks 31 — OVER A THOUSAND SURVIVOR ENTRIES OUT

Sam Darnold threw a 50-yard pick six. Seattle answered with a touchdown in about a minute to make it 33-31. Then — three timeouts and the two-minute warning — all they had to do was get a stop.

They allowed Rashad White to run for a first down on third down. Then Marcus Mariota to run for a first down on a key third down.

Scott: "That is embarrassing for the Super Bowl champions. Forget allowing two first downs on key third downs — you allowed them RUNNING."

Mackenzie: "They didn't even surprise you with a bootleg play action. They did exactly what the book says. It goes to show offense is way ahead of defense right now — another super efficient day from a backup quarterback against the defending Super Bowl champion defense.

Jaguars 35, Patriots 6 — THE DRAKE MAYE RECKONING CONTINUES

Two interceptions, and two fumbles.

Mackenzie: "Did you see the fumble in the first half? It was 0-0. Nobody touched him. He just DROPPED the ball. And he couldn't find it. Like his keys."

Scott: "People need to stop looking at Drake Maye and the 14 wins and the Super Bowl appearance and saying he was an MVP candidate.

The Patriots played one of the easiest schedules in NFL HISTORY last year — And every time they stepped up in class against a competent team, Maye underperformed.

He is the guy who underperforms against good teams. The Patriots just didn't play many good teams, so it got washed away."

Mackenzie: "If you kept hearing it's just the schedule — well, give me seven straight games of playoff competition and I'll show you. Four in the playoffs, bad in every one. Three this season, bad in every one. It confirmed all of our doubts. He's still young and can improve — but he's not a top five quarterback or close."

49ers 36, Cardinals 30 — AND A COVER-PLAY RANT

The Cardinals kicked a field goal down 2 scores.

Scott: "I think it's the dumbest thing you could have done. You're at the San Francisco 31. I don't care how much time is left — you only need five seconds to kick an onside kick.

In this day and age, if you RECOVER the onside kick, you’re at midfield or better. Cam Little tried a 70-yarder today.

What would you rather have — a 65-yard field goal attempt, or needing a touchdown from the 50 with 20 seconds and no timeouts?"

(Mackenzie: "Two missed extra points — if you had -7.5, that's a rough beat.")

Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16

Minnesota is 3-0 — on an embarrassing offensive performance.

⚠️ Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb and is undergoing an MRI.

The Case That Tampa Could Be 3-0

Scott: "Three consecutive fumbles against the Bengals — and they STILL came back and had the ball down one possession.

If not for a two-hour rain delay, maybe they score and beat the Browns.

And here — if not for a punt return touchdown in the first quarter, maybe they beat the Vikings. There was a stretch where the Vikings had NINE consecutive offensive possessions and none lasted longer than about 2 Minutes. Minnesota had no offense. Unfortunately, neither did Tampa."

Mackenzie: "If I'm Todd Bowles, I'm coaching for my career — I don't know if he gets another job after this one. He probably spent as focused a week as possible and had the best defensive result he could. But you're so reliant as a defensive coach on your quarterback and play caller. And it's going to get a lot worse if it's the undrafted rookie next week."

Ravens 34, Cowboys 31 (RIO DE JANEIRO)

Tyler Loop hit a 56-yarder as time expired, set up by a completion and a timeout with one second left. 

The Call

Scott: "On one of the worst defensive pass interference calls you'll ever see — CeeDee Lamb PULLED THE DEFENDER DOWN to prevent an interception. I was watching with no volume on and I'm thinking: offensive pass interference. They called defensive and gave Dallas the ball at the two."

Mackenzie: "That should have been a pick. I thought that was a good, smart offensive foul by Lamb — you take the penalty and keep moving."

The 14-Point Swing Before It

Two possessions earlier, Derrick Henry scored on third and goal from the one — reviewed and ruled short. Then they got stopped on fourth and goal. Then the Cowboys drove down and scored.

Mackenzie: "Awesome football game. You could watch that fourth quarter without knowing the sport and not figure out the rules and still say this is really cool.

And if I'm a Cowboys fan — just KICK IT and play. I know you can lose on a kick return touchdown, but give me two seconds off the clock and there's almost no chance to get a play off. They kick a touchback every time. They're worried their special teams will lose it — instead their defense does."

Raiders 35, Saints 27

Tyler Shough threw four touchdowns — and turned it over three times (two fumbles lost, one interception).

Scott: "People are saying the Saints are good. They don't play a LICK of defense. It's a problem. Like the Lions — they're going to score a lot and give up a lot."

⭐ THE FUTURES TIMING PLAY: WAIT ON THE RAIDERS

Scott: "Do NOT bet either one this week."

The October Gauntlet

Chiefs · Patriots · Bills · Rams

"They're 5.5-point dogs to Kansas City next week. They're going 1-3 at best over the next four weeks.

Wait until right before the Jets game on November 1st, and you'll get a much, much better payout.

And if you're saying what if they beat Kansas City? — then just bet them to beat Kansas City."

🏈 TONIGHT: EAGLES AT BEARS

Case Keenum to start. Tyson Bagent cleared concussion protocol but did not practice with the ones this week.

The Line Logic

Mackenzie: "When it went from Caleb Williams to Tyson Bagent, it was pick'em to 3.5. Now it's going to CASE KEENUM and it's STILL 3.5. That doesn't make sense to me.

The only way I get there is the total being so low — I guess they just assume this is a field goal game either way. But the value is with the Eagles. People are third-stringers for a reason. He's a coach on the sideline."

Scott's case: "I've gone on record about the sack rate for Case Keenum — as he's gotten older he's more immobile. I think the Eagles have a field day getting after the quarterback.

And this might be one of those cases where you take the 2.5 and you LAY the 3.5."

Mackenzie: "Exactly — because it's what your knee-jerk reaction doesn't want to do. That's why they're giving you the value on the three."

⭐ THE SAME GAME PARLAY

The 3-Leg Baseline: +647

The 4-Leg Version: +1452

| 4 | Jalen Hurts ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN |

🔀 How We Got to the Anti-Correlation

The first attempt was Hurts over 218.5 passing yards at +458 — and it got scrapped.

Scott: "The only reason I don't like it is because it's ALL correlated. I'd much rather go negative correlation than positive."

The fix: "We're going UNDER on Case Keenum's passing yards — but we're going OVER on a BEARS receiving prop."

Mackenzie: "That's brilliant. If Tyson Bagent comes in and throws for a hundred yards in the second half, the receivers could be benefiting from that."

Why Loveland

The Bears' receiving numbers are startlingly low: DeAndre Swift 10.5, Cole Kmet 9.5, Rome Odunze 25.5, Loveland 35.5.

Mackenzie: "Let's BUY LOW with Loveland. He has five targets, three yards, one catch on the season. He's going to break out. He's their number one guy."

And the Hurts Touchdown

Mackenzie: "If they're not taking Saquon Barkley out of the garage, then yeah. Do a little tush push action."

(Barkley is coming off a stinger with only four carries last week; DeVonta Smith is good to go.)

Mackenzie's final read: "I think the Eagles might win like 20-3 here, honestly. Might get bad."

📐 LOOK-AHEAD vs NOW: WEEK 4

The Notable Reads

On Seattle/LA Chargers: "Why is there no adjustment for the Chargers losing?" Mackenzie: "The Seahawks also lost, but I chalk it up to Sam Darnold in his first game back and two bad picks. I like the Seahawks there."

On Houston/Dallas: Mackenzie: "The Cowboys lost, but they put up a lot of points against the Ravens. I think I like the Cowboys there." Scott: "It's desperation for the Texans — you lose this game, the season's over."

On San Francisco: Mackenzie: "Trent Williams didn't end the game. Nick Bosa didn't play. Mike Evans didn't end the game. Deebo didn't have a catch but had 80 yards. It's starting to be a little SHOESTRINGY with the 49ers despite the 3-0 start. A lot of patching up to do."

On the Falcons as the most impressive team of the week: Mackenzie: "We forget because it was a Thursday — Michael Penix played twelve starts before this one, and he now has FIVE games with an 80+ QBR. Half his games he's elite so far."

📅 A BUSY WEEK AT BETTOR DAY

⚾ MLB Postseason

A postseason preview pod records today and drops tonight — ready for you Tuesday morning.

🏒 NHL Season Starts Tomorrow

An NHL preview pod is coming —

🏒 THE NHL HQ IS LIVE

Our NHL headquarters is now LIVE on BettorDay.com and in the Bettor Day mobile app — just like the NFL HQ and College Football HQ.

What's In It

The matchup view: click any game for a full matchup card — goals for and against per game, power play and penalty kill percentage, 5v5 shot attempt share, 5v5 shots on goal share, and shots on goal for and allowed per game.

Shots on goal props: player hit rates compared to what their opponent allows over the course of a season.

⭐ The First Period Database

Everything you need to bet NHL first periods:

• Straight up records
• Over/under records
• Both teams to score records
• Goal in the first 10 records (your GIFT bets)
• Goalie records — track every goalie's first period performance, split by home and away, with first period goals against average and first period save percentage

The season starts next week. No better time to jump on board.

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