NFL Week 2 Sunday Recap, Week 3 Lookahead & MNF Same Game Parlay

Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers recap all the action from yesterday in the NFL, cook up a Same Game Parlay for MNF & take a look at the Week 3 lines compared to the lookaheads.

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🚨 A HISTORIC START: THREE MASSIVE UPSETS IN TWO WEEKS

Per Evan Abrams of the Action Network: the first time since 1974 that we've had three upsets this big in the first two weeks of a season.

🤔 So What Do We Take From It?

Mackenzie: "I think it goes back to quarterbacks. Baker Mayfield is tied for third in contract average at $55 million a year. If you were in a coma for a few years — didn't Deshaun Watson replace Baker Mayfield at one point? Neither of them, I think anyone would say, is good now. Well, maybe Baker a couple weeks ago.

It's hard to be a touchdown-plus favorite. Where are the Bucs so much better, so much more dominant? Is it home field? They don't really have one historically. They don't have the gap that year-after-year elite quarterbacks establish and keep."

💀 SURVIVOR CARNAGE, WEEK 2

Circa Survivor

Circa Grandissimo ($100,000 buy-in)

"And it could have been worse if the Eagles lost. The Eagles were NINE SECONDS away from losing to the Tennessee Titans."

⛈️ THE TWO-HOUR TWO-MINUTE DRILL

The final two minutes of Bucs/Browns were delayed — thunderstorms, torrential downpour, fans cleared from the stands.

At the stoppage: Tampa had second and four at the Cleveland 28, roughly a -120 favorite to win.

Scott: "You will not be able to convince me otherwise: if that game is not stopped, Tampa Bay wins.

They had the momentum. They just gave up the touchdown, then marched right down the field to the 28. At that point the defense is GASSED — a long, hot, muggy, humid day in Tampa.

The fact that they got to go into the locker room, get into dry clothes, hydrate, get treatment, an IV, a massage — maybe eat some Uncrustables — then come back out with all that energy? That's what helped the Browns secure the victory."

Mackenzie: "Exhaustion is a big part of why two-minute drills work. You have all week to script your first 15 plays — you're watching clips of what that cornerback did two years ago. Later in the game you're going off pure instinct. I don't think you can scheme it up much after that. It only helps the defense to have that long to say, we're going to bash our heads through a wall. And they did — just barely."

🏈 SUNDAY NIGHT: CHIEFS 33, COLTS 30 (OT)

Kenneth Walker: 117 rushing yards. Travis Kelce: 101 receiving yards and a touchdown. Chiefs move to 2-0. The Colts covered.

📉 THE RECORD NOBODY WANTS

The Colts allowed 506 yards to Baltimore in week one — then 523 yards last night.

1,029 yards allowed through two games is an NFL RECORD — set by Lou Anarumo's Indianapolis Colts Defense.

Mackenzie on the Chiefs

"It's so easy to snap-react — look at the averages early in the year. One game the Chiefs were especially good on defense and in the running game; the other they were especially good on offense and the defense struggled. B-plus both games. Mahomes' QBR: a 50 and an 80 — average that out and it's upper third of the league. And the trend line matters too. He dominated a Colts secondary that is very dominatable.

The teams to beat in the AFC are the Chiefs, the Bills, maybe the Bengals. And it's funny — you could have said those three quarterbacks five years ago."

🏈 GAME BY GAME

Panthers 34, Falcons 3 ✅ (Dan and Mack's sharp alternative)

Bryce Young: 287 yards, 3 TDs.

The punishment: The 0-2 Falcons — who have scored ONE touchdown in two games (none yesterday) — now play primetime three weeks in a row:

Mackenzie: "That cannot be true. Somebody call Madison Avenue."

Scott: "Michael Penix or Tua had better be at quarterback. Cooper Rush slash Jack Strand ain't doing it." 

On Bryce Young: "If it weren't for Caleb Williams, people would be saying Bryce Young is finally becoming who we thought he was. People used to write off Bryce versus CJ Stroud. It's a conversation now. Thirty on the Rams in a playoff game, thirty on the Bears, thirty-four here. All up arrows."

Vikings 9, Bears 3 ✅ (our Football Show play)

Caleb Williams left with a hamstring injury — more tests to come. "You see a non-contact injury like that and everyone thinks Achilles. Hamstring is the best thing you could have wanted."

The Kevin O'Connell stat: FOUR consecutive wins with FOUR different starting quarterbacks — JJ McCarthy, Max Brosmer, Carson Wentz, Kyler Murray.

Scott: "Coaching matters. And Brian Flores is the best non-head coach in the NFL. No ifs, ands, or buts."

Eagles 24, Titans 20

The winning touchdown came with NINE SECONDS left. Saquon Barkley left with a stinger in the first half and returned. Hurts: 26/37, 264 yards, 2 TD. DeVonta Smith had a big game.

Scott: "The Eagles have the ugliest 2-0 record in the NFL right now."

Mackenzie: "I feel like the Eagles actually played better than the score suggests. One 14-point swing in the first quarter — I know turnovers are part of the game — but they were stopping Tennessee consistently and matriculating the ball down the field. More first downs by nine, more total yards. If they get downgraded, it's a little bit of a mistake by the market.

But look who they've played. The Titans just got blown out by the Jets, who just blew a fourth quarter lead. The Eagles are going to beat these bad teams. I'm very skeptical they're going to beat good teams later in the year."

Patriots 20, Steelers 3

Scott: "Before the season, people said maybe Aaron Rodgers shows his age this year. Watching yesterday — Aaron Rodgers is showing his age.

About five minutes left, they're in the red zone, and Rodgers tries to use his legs to escape the pass rush and takes a sack. Dude — you're 42 years old. You don't do that anymore. Throw the damn ball away and live to play another down.

And if they don't get TJ Watt's defensive touchdown last week, they might lose to Atlanta and be 0-2 — and we'd be talking about a disaster of a season."

Mackenzie: "Where's their talent? Rodgers has never been a tear-you-apart-with-precision pocket passer. They don't have a running back I'm worried about. And DK Metcalf looks five years too long in the tooth — some really terrible drops, and he couldn't beat Gonzalez at any point.

Is there a better-than-.500 streak on the line? That'd be great for Tomlin's legacy — eighteen in a row, and then one and done without him."

Packers 20, Jets 17 (OT)

The first non-cover for Matt LaFleur in week two since 2021 — he'd been 5-0.

Mackenzie: "As soon as you know a stat, it's like the law of measurement in quantum mechanics — then it's going to reverse. (Mackenzie noted that Sean Payton had lost eight straight in week two, as well, until yesterday.)

The Packers won this game in spite of themselves. 4-for-20 on third down on the season. That's the quarterback stat. Jordan Love is not looking like a $55 million-a-year quarterback."

Browns 23, Buccaneers 19

Deshaun Watson: 24/30, 238 yards, 2 TDs.

Mackenzie: "He's middle of the pack now in year-to-date stats. This was probably his best game as a Brown. Took some big hits and fired the ball away. I'm not rooting for him — but it's impressive to carry that kind of weight and not slink away with your $50 million in the bank. He's staying in there and taking the hits, literally and figuratively."

🔥 First Coach Fired?

Mackenzie: "Todd Bowles. I think it's highly likely. He's always been a great start-of-the-year coach, and arguably could have won either game. But Baker is now on like his tenth offensive coordinator out of eleven. If he has a Liam Coen or a McVay type calling plays, he can be impressive. I don't think he wins games by himself."

Saints 24, Ravens 17

Outscored Baltimore 18-3 in the second half.

Scott: "Maybe we need to reevaluate the Saints. Maybe last week's comeback against the Lions was not a fluke.Last week everyone wanted to anoint the Ravens Super Bowl champions — but maybe the Colts defense is just terrible and the Saints are better than we thought. They should not have been 8.5-point dogs."

Mackenzie: "It's always been perplexing — the Ravens seem built to salt games away, and they just never have. Another fourth quarter blown lead for Lamar Jackson. No offense at all, three-and-outs. The defense was okay, but nothing special under Jesse Minter right now."

Bengals 20, Texans 6 — "COACHING MALPRACTICE"

Scott: "This was one of my losses. I have a lot of respect for DeMeco Ryans. That game was coaching malpractice."

Exhibit A: The Run/Pass Split

"If CJ Stroud drops back 55 times, you're not winning a football game. And don't tell me game script — this was a ONE-POSSESSION game in the third quarter and you abandoned the run.

People say the Bengals did a great job with their stuff rate. No — you didn't TRY to run against them."

Exhibit B: The Field Goal

Third quarter. Down 10-3. Fourth and ONE at the Cincinnati 40. They kicked a field goal.

Scott: "If you don't go for it there, I don't know if you're trying to win a football game. There's NO excuse for sending Ka'imi Fairbairn out to make it 10-6. The math is heavily, heavily against it."

Mackenzie's diagnosis: "I think the reason — and it's not an excuse, it's actually worse — is they'd already gone for it on fourth and one at the 19. To me that's the dead man zone. Take the three and go up 3-0. They don't get it, fall behind 10-3, and now: man, I wish I had those three points. So they try to make up for that mistake by compounding it.

When it's 0-0, you don't know what you'll need — a field goal might be very helpful. When it's 10-3 late, that's when you actually need POINTS. Baffling stuff. They moved the ball, lots of first downs and yards — but you're not converting and you're not punishing them. The Bengals were never worried."

Broncos 20, Jaguars 13

Jaylen Waddle: 8 catches, 138 yards. A bounce-back for Bo Nix — and Davis Webb gets his first win as play caller, so Sean Payton probably isn't taking duties back right away. 

Mackenzie: "I wouldn't rule out Sean Payton watching over Davis Webb's shoulder as we move forward."

Raiders 26, Chargers 14

Scott: "Two of the worst losses you'll see to start a season."

📊 THE 0-2-AS-FAVORITE STAT

Since 2021, teams that lost outright as favorites in BOTH week one and week two: only five times. In week three they're 4-1 straight up, 3-1-1 ATS.

"But none of those five had to play the Buffalo Bills coming off a mini-bye after a Thursday game. That's what Justin Herbert and the Chargers are staring at. They're about to be 0-3 — and might be 0-4 when they play Denver the week after."

Mackenzie: "Herbert's gotten worse every year. He's the Steve Francis of the NFL. I'm surprised Mike McDaniel isn't fixing it."

Cowboys 37, Commanders 20

Jayden Daniels went for it on the final play of the first half — got stepped on by his own offensive lineman and, bracing his fall, DISLOCATED HIS ELBOW. The same elbow he hurt previously. X-rays showed no fracture.

Mackenzie: "Are you concerned that no offensive linemen, no running backs, no coaches seemed to really care while he was lying on the ground? A lot of people just jogging into halftime. It does not seem like the most cohesive unit in Washington. Three years in a row with injury problems for skinny Daniels."

Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 9 catches, 155 yards, THREE touchdowns.

Scott: "I want to ask the Arizona coaching staff if this was the first time they'd ever seen Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I'd coach my defense: if Elijah Arroyo or Cooper Kupp beats me, I'm okay with it. I'm NOT letting number eleven beat me.Were they watching the first half going 'hmm, who's number 11? He's pretty good.'"

Mackenzie: "It was disrespect for Drew Lock. On the very first play, both the shallow corner and the safety thought he'd cut his route short for a five-yard catch. 'Drew Lock isn't beating us deep.' Three touchdowns for Lock, three for JSN. There was one guy they had to worry about."

49ers 35, Dolphins 13

Five touchdowns on their first five drives. "Miami: the absolute worst roster in the NFL. Pathetic with a capital P."

(Mackenzie's follow-up: "Does the 49ers blowout change your opinion on how hard it is to come back from Australia?")

🏈 TONIGHT: GIANTS AT RAMS

The line was 7 — it moved to 6.5 on news that Puka Nacua is likely NOT playing. (And the look-ahead was 8.5 — since then LA has lost Myles Garrett AND Puka.)

⭐ THE SAME GAME PARLAY: +869

(The three-leg version, without the under: +429.)

Why We Avoided the Rams Backs

Scott: "I don't know who to trust — Kyren Williams or Blake Corum. I don't want to be on the wrong end of picking the wrong guy like we did last week."

The Pivot: Skattebo UNDER

Scott: "Maybe Aaron Donald's presence makes the interior of the run defense better."

Mackenzie: "That's the way I'd look first. I think the Rams might — it's a 14-2 straight up trend when you're playing a team that won as a dog in its first game, you lost as a favorite in yours, and now you're a big home favorite. Everyone's super amped on the Giants and super down on the Rams. This might be the reversal. And if they're up 14-0 in the first half, Skattebo is not getting 50 yards."

Dart Rushing OVER — The Correlation

Scott: "If he's running for his life — if the pass rush is getting to him — that's not a bad idea."

Mackenzie: "Dart had eleven attempts last week. I feel like he's going to run just as much."

The Under as the Fourth Leg

Scott: "It's hard to bet unders anymore in the NFL. It seems like even when you're right, you're wrong."

Mackenzie: "Monday night standalone games tend to be priced heavily to the over. I lean under — I also think the Giants offense is going to come back to earth. That's my thesis."

📐 LOOK-AHEAD vs NOW: WEEK 3

(All current lines from FanDuel.)

🎯 The Reads

Falcons at Packers — no adjustment: "How do you not downgrade them off losing 34-3 at home to a mediocre Panthers team? Unless Penix or Tua is back. I'm surprised it's not seven."

Panthers at Browns: "It was Deshaun Watson's best game as a Brown. It's got to be an upgrade to say Watson is closer to league average than some third-stringer off the bench." 

Patriots at Jaguars — no move: "Think about what that line is saying. The Jags are as good as the Patriots by the Vegas market right now."

Texans at Colts — no move: "The Texans are 0-2 and the Colts just took the Chiefs to overtime — and the line didn't budge."

🔥 Chargers at Bills (-4 → -7)

Mackenzie: "That's a huge adjustment. I wish I'd bet that last week — that four would have been juicy. And I agree with the move."

Scott: "The Bills scored more points in one HALF than the Chargers have scored all season. Twenty-eight points is all the Chargers have scored." 

Chiefs at Dolphins (-8.5 → -10.5)

"Maybe not enough of a downgrade on Miami — they're that pitiful."

Mackenzie: "The only thing is Miami in September. And I'm not sure the Chiefs can rest in the second half when they're up 20."

Bengals at Steelers (-2.5 → -3.5)

Both agree — "a huge move through the three. Slight Bengals upgrade, and major question marks about Pittsburgh's offense. Burrow looks all right — the back injury isn't affecting him."

⚠️ Seahawks at Commanders (-2 → -6.5)

No Jayden Daniels, still no Sam Darnold

Mackenzie: "I think it's a little too big of an adjustment. They're BOTH on backups. I know Washington doesn't have much of a home field advantage — but to say it out loud: Drew Lock is a touchdown favorite on the road. Doesn't sound right."

⚠️ Titans at Giants (-5.5 → -6.5)

Scott: "Why are we upgrading the Giants or downgrading the Titans? The Titans almost beat the Eagles. If Philly doesn't score with nine seconds left, are the Titans 6.5-point dogs at the Giants? No — it's probably five."

Mackenzie: "Maybe it's just New York money. Very bullish on the Giants. It could come down if they get blown out tonight like we might think."

Cardinals at 49ers (-8 → -8.5)

Both: "Not enough of an adjustment."

⭐ Vikings at Buccaneers (TB -1 → MIN -2.5)

A 3.5-point swing. "This is absolutely pricing in Kyler Murray at quarterback — and how negative the Bucs have looked. I don't think Todd Bowles is long for his position."

Mackenzie's play: "I might be TEASING the Buccaneers up to 8.5. It's going to be tough to beat them by ten."

No Movement

Ravens at Cowboys (-3), Raiders at Saints (-3), Rams at Broncos (-2.5). "Saints-Raiders unchanged is interesting — both teams got upgraded."

⭐ Eagles at Bears (CHI -1.5 → PHI -3.5)

Caleb Williams is out — Tyson Bagent starts.

Mackenzie: "Bagent isn't that bad. Maybe it closes three — maybe you grab that hook while you can."

Scott: "I honestly thought about it, especially as bad as the Eagles have looked. Maybe this is one where you buy the dip on the Chicago Bears."

📊 TRENCH REPORT: WEEK 2 GRADED

✅ Top 5 Mismatches: 4-1 ATS

The only loss: Jacksonville. ("We're still only going off one week of data — it gets sharper as we go.")

📅 Coming Up

• Tomorrow: Michael Fiddle, market reactions.
• Wednesday: Trench Report updates for Week 3 at BettorDay.com & the app.
• Thursday: The BettorDay Football Show — Scott, Fezzik, and AJ Hoffman