> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Monday, September 21st, 2026 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/monday-september-21st-2026/ - Published: 2026-09-21T10:00:24.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-21T10:00:24.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## NFL Week 2 Sunday Recap, Week 3 Lookahead & MNF Same Game Parlay *Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers recap all the action from yesterday in the NFL, cook up a Same Game Parlay for MNF & take a look at the Week 3 lines compared to the lookaheads.* [![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! [Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) # 🚨 A HISTORIC START: THREE MASSIVE UPSETS IN TWO WEEKS | Week | Upset | Spread | | ---- | --------------------------- | ------ | | 1 | **Cardinals over Chargers** | +9.5 | | 2 | **Saints over Ravens** | +8.5 | | 2 | **Browns over Buccaneers** | +8.5 | **Per Evan Abrams of the Action Network: the first time since 1974 that we've had three upsets this big in the first two weeks of a season.** --- ## 🤔 So What Do We Take From It? **Mackenzie:** "**I think it goes back to quarterbacks.** Baker Mayfield is tied for third in contract average at $55 million a year. **If you were in a coma for a few years — didn't Deshaun Watson replace Baker Mayfield at one point? Neither of them, I think anyone would say, is good now.** Well, maybe Baker a couple weeks ago. **It's hard to be a touchdown-plus favorite.** Where are the Bucs so much better, so much more dominant? **Is it home field? They don't really have one historically. They don't have the gap that year-after-year elite quarterbacks establish and keep.**" --- # 💀 SURVIVOR CARNAGE, WEEK 2 ## Circa Survivor | Loser | Entries Eliminated | | -------------- | ----------------------------- | | **Buccaneers** | **6,061 — 35.8% of the pool** | | Chargers | 1,357 | | Ravens | 835 | ## Circa Grandissimo ($100,000 buy-in) | Loser | Entries Out | | -------------- | ----------- | | **Buccaneers** | **14** | | Ravens | 4 | | Chargers | 1 | **"And it could have been worse if the Eagles lost. The Eagles were NINE SECONDS away from losing to the Tennessee Titans."** --- ## ⛈️ THE TWO-HOUR TWO-MINUTE DRILL **The final two minutes of Bucs/Browns were delayed** — thunderstorms, torrential downpour, fans cleared from the stands. **At the stoppage: Tampa had second and four at the Cleveland 28, roughly a -120 favorite to win.** **Scott:** "**You will not be able to convince me otherwise: if that game is not stopped, Tampa Bay wins.** They had the momentum. They just gave up the touchdown, **then marched right down the field to the 28\. At that point the defense is GASSED** — a long, hot, muggy, humid day in Tampa. **The fact that they got to go into the locker room, get into dry clothes, hydrate, get treatment, an IV, a massage — maybe eat some Uncrustables — then come back out with all that energy? That's what helped the Browns secure the victory.**" **Mackenzie:** "**Exhaustion is a big part of why two-minute drills work.** You have all week to script your first 15 plays — you're watching clips of what that cornerback did two years ago. **Later in the game you're going off pure instinct. I don't think you can scheme it up much after that.** It only helps the defense to have that long to say, *we're going to bash our heads through a wall.* And they did — just barely." --- # 🏈 SUNDAY NIGHT: CHIEFS 33, COLTS 30 (OT) **Kenneth Walker: 117 rushing yards. Travis Kelce: 101 receiving yards and a touchdown.** Chiefs move to 2-0\. **The Colts covered.** ### 📉 THE RECORD NOBODY WANTS **The Colts allowed 506 yards to Baltimore in week one — then 523 yards last night.** **1,029 yards allowed through two games is an NFL RECORD — set by Lou Anarumo's Indianapolis Colts Defense.** ### Mackenzie on the Chiefs "**It's so easy to snap-react — look at the averages early in the year.** One game the Chiefs were especially good on defense and in the running game; the other they were especially good on offense and the defense struggled. **B-plus both games.** Mahomes' QBR: a 50 and an 80 — **average that out and it's upper third of the league. And the trend line matters too.** He dominated a Colts secondary that is very dominatable. **The teams to beat in the AFC are the Chiefs, the Bills, maybe the Bengals. And it's funny — you could have said those three quarterbacks five years ago.**" --- # 🏈 GAME BY GAME --- ### Panthers 34, Falcons 3 ✅ *(Dan and Mack's sharp alternative)* **Bryce Young: 287 yards, 3 TDs.** **The punishment:** The 0-2 Falcons — **who have scored ONE touchdown in two games** (none yesterday) — **now play primetime three weeks in a row:** | Week | Game | | ---- | ------------------------------- | | 3 | **Thursday night at Green Bay** | | 4 | **Monday night at New Orleans** | | 5 | **Sunday night vs Baltimore** | **Mackenzie: "That cannot be true. Somebody call Madison Avenue."** **Scott:** "**Michael Penix or Tua had better be at quarterback. Cooper Rush slash Jack Strand ain't doing it.**" **On Bryce Young:** "**If it weren't for Caleb Williams, people would be saying Bryce Young is finally becoming who we thought he was.** People used to write off Bryce versus CJ Stroud. **It's a conversation now.** Thirty on the Rams in a playoff game, thirty on the Bears, thirty-four here. **All up arrows.**" --- ### Vikings 9, Bears 3 ✅ *(our Football Show play)* **Caleb Williams left with a hamstring injury** — more tests to come. "**You see a non-contact injury like that and everyone thinks Achilles. Hamstring is the best thing you could have wanted.**" **The Kevin O'Connell stat: FOUR consecutive wins with FOUR different starting quarterbacks** — JJ McCarthy, Max Brosmer, Carson Wentz, Kyler Murray. **Scott:** "**Coaching matters. And Brian Flores is the best non-head coach in the NFL. No ifs, ands, or buts.**" --- ### Eagles 24, Titans 20 **The winning touchdown came with NINE SECONDS left.** Saquon Barkley left with a stinger in the first half and returned. **Hurts: 26/37, 264 yards, 2 TD.** DeVonta Smith had a big game. **Scott:** "**The Eagles have the ugliest 2-0 record in the NFL right now.**" **Mackenzie:** "**I feel like the Eagles actually played better than the score suggests.** One 14-point swing in the first quarter — I know turnovers are part of the game — **but they were stopping Tennessee consistently and matriculating the ball down the field.** More first downs by nine, more total yards. **If they get downgraded, it's a little bit of a mistake by the market.** **But look who they've played. The Titans just got blown out by the Jets, who just blew a fourth quarter lead. The Eagles are going to beat these bad teams. I'm very skeptical they're going to beat good teams later in the year.**" --- ### Patriots 20, Steelers 3 **Scott:** "**Before the season, people said maybe Aaron Rodgers shows his age this year. Watching yesterday — Aaron Rodgers is showing his age.** About five minutes left, they're in the red zone, and **Rodgers tries to use his legs to escape the pass rush and takes a sack. Dude — you're 42 years old. You don't do that anymore. Throw the damn ball away and live to play another down.** **And if they don't get TJ Watt's defensive touchdown last week, they might lose to Atlanta and be 0-2 — and we'd be talking about a disaster of a season.**" **Mackenzie:** "**Where's their talent?** Rodgers has never been a tear-you-apart-with-precision pocket passer. **They don't have a running back I'm worried about. And DK Metcalf looks five years too long in the tooth** — some really terrible drops, and he couldn't beat Gonzalez at any point. **Is there a better-than-.500 streak on the line? That'd be great for Tomlin's legacy — eighteen in a row, and then one and done without him.**" --- ### Packers 20, Jets 17 (OT) **The first non-cover for Matt LaFleur in week two since 2021** — he'd been 5-0. **Mackenzie:** "**As soon as you know a stat, it's like the law of measurement in quantum mechanics — then it's going to reverse.** *(Mackenzie noted that Sean Payton had lost eight straight in week two, as well, until yesterday.)* **The Packers won this game in spite of themselves. 4-for-20 on third down on the season. That's the quarterback stat. Jordan Love is not looking like a $55 million-a-year quarterback.**" --- ### Browns 23, Buccaneers 19 **Deshaun Watson: 24/30, 238 yards, 2 TDs.** **Mackenzie:** "He's middle of the pack now in year-to-date stats. **This was probably his best game as a Brown.** Took some big hits and fired the ball away. **I'm not rooting for him — but it's impressive to carry that kind of weight and not slink away with your $50 million in the bank. He's staying in there and taking the hits, literally and figuratively.**" ### 🔥 First Coach Fired? **Mackenzie: "Todd Bowles. I think it's highly likely.** He's always been a great start-of-the-year coach, and arguably could have won either game. **But Baker is now on like his tenth offensive coordinator out of eleven.** If he has a Liam Coen or a McVay type calling plays, he can be impressive. **I don't think he wins games by himself.**" --- ### Saints 24, Ravens 17 **Outscored Baltimore 18-3 in the second half.** **Scott:** "**Maybe we need to reevaluate the Saints. Maybe last week's comeback against the Lions was not a fluke.**Last week everyone wanted to anoint the Ravens Super Bowl champions — **but maybe the Colts defense is just terrible and the Saints are better than we thought. They should not have been 8.5-point dogs.**" **Mackenzie:** "**It's always been perplexing — the Ravens seem built to salt games away, and they just never have. Another fourth quarter blown lead for Lamar Jackson.** No offense at all, three-and-outs. The defense was okay, **but nothing special under Jesse Minter right now.**" --- ### Bengals 20, Texans 6 — "COACHING MALPRACTICE" **Scott:** "This was one of my losses. **I have a lot of respect for DeMeco Ryans. That game was coaching malpractice.**" #### Exhibit A: The Run/Pass Split | Player | Volume | | -------------------- | ----------------------- | | **David Montgomery** | **6 carries, 10 yards** | | **CJ Stroud** | **55 dropbacks** | **"If CJ Stroud drops back 55 times, you're not winning a football game. And don't tell me game script — this was a ONE-POSSESSION game in the third quarter and you abandoned the run.** People say the Bengals did a great job with their stuff rate. **No — you didn't TRY to run against them.**" #### Exhibit B: The Field Goal **Third quarter. Down 10-3\. Fourth and ONE at the Cincinnati 40\. They kicked a field goal.** **Scott:** "**If you don't go for it there, I don't know if you're trying to win a football game. There's NO excuse for sending Ka'imi Fairbairn out to make it 10-6\. The math is heavily, heavily against it.**" **Mackenzie's diagnosis:** "**I think the reason — and it's not an excuse, it's actually worse — is they'd already gone for it on fourth and one at the 19\. To me that's the dead man zone.** **Take the three and go up 3-0.** They don't get it, fall behind 10-3, and now: *man, I wish I had those three points.* **So they try to make up for that mistake by compounding it.** **When it's 0-0, you don't know what you'll need — a field goal might be very helpful. When it's 10-3 late, that's when you actually need POINTS. Baffling stuff.** They moved the ball, lots of first downs and yards — **but you're not converting and you're not punishing them. The Bengals were never worried.**" --- ### Broncos 20, Jaguars 13 **Jaylen Waddle: 8 catches, 138 yards.** A bounce-back for Bo Nix — **and Davis Webb gets his first win as play caller**, so Sean Payton probably isn't taking duties back right away. **Mackenzie:** "**I wouldn't rule out Sean Payton watching over Davis Webb's shoulder as we move forward.**" --- ### Raiders 26, Chargers 14 **Scott:** "**Two of the worst losses you'll see to start a season.**" ### 📊 THE 0-2-AS-FAVORITE STAT **Since 2021, teams that lost outright as favorites in BOTH week one and week two: only five times. In week three they're 4-1 straight up, 3-1-1 ATS.** **"But none of those five had to play the Buffalo Bills coming off a mini-bye after a Thursday game. That's what Justin Herbert and the Chargers are staring at. They're about to be 0-3 — and might be 0-4 when they play Denver the week after.**" **Mackenzie:** "**Herbert's gotten worse every year. He's the Steve Francis of the NFL.** I'm surprised Mike McDaniel isn't fixing it." --- ### Cowboys 37, Commanders 20 **Jayden Daniels went for it on the final play of the first half — got stepped on by his own offensive lineman and, bracing his fall, DISLOCATED HIS ELBOW.** The same elbow he hurt previously. **X-rays showed no fracture.** **Mackenzie:** "**Are you concerned that no offensive linemen, no running backs, no coaches seemed to really care while he was lying on the ground?** A lot of people just jogging into halftime. **It does not seem like the most cohesive unit in Washington.** Three years in a row with injury problems for skinny Daniels." --- ### Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7 **Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 9 catches, 155 yards, THREE touchdowns.** **Scott:** "**I want to ask the Arizona coaching staff if this was the first time they'd ever seen Jaxon Smith-Njigba.** I'd coach my defense: *if Elijah Arroyo or Cooper Kupp beats me, I'm okay with it. I'm NOT letting number eleven beat me.* **Were they watching the first half going 'hmm, who's number 11? He's pretty good.'**" **Mackenzie:** "**It was disrespect for Drew Lock.** On the very first play, both the shallow corner and the safety thought he'd cut his route short for a five-yard catch. **'Drew Lock isn't beating us deep.'** Three touchdowns for Lock, three for JSN. **There was one guy they had to worry about.**" --- ### 49ers 35, Dolphins 13 **Five touchdowns on their first five drives.** "**Miami: the absolute worst roster in the NFL. Pathetic with a capital P.**" *(Mackenzie's follow-up: "*Does the 49ers blowout change your opinion on how hard it is to come back from Australia?*")* --- # 🏈 TONIGHT: GIANTS AT RAMS | Market | Line | | ------ | ------------------------------- | | Spread | **Rams -6.5 (-120)** at FanDuel | | Total | **47.5** | **The line was 7 — it moved to 6.5 on news that Puka Nacua is likely NOT playing.** *(And the look-ahead was 8.5 — since then LA has lost Myles Garrett AND Puka.)* --- ## ⭐ THE SAME GAME PARLAY: +869 | Leg | Bet | | --- | ----------------------------------------- | | 1 | **Rams -6.5** | | 2 | **Cam Skattebo UNDER 50.5 rushing yards** | | 3 | **Jaxson Dart OVER 31.5 rushing yards** | | 4 | **UNDER 47.5** | *(The three-leg version, without the under: *+429.*)* --- ### Why We Avoided the Rams Backs **Scott:** "**I don't know who to trust — Kyren Williams or Blake Corum. I don't want to be on the wrong end of picking the wrong guy like we did last week.**" ### The Pivot: Skattebo UNDER **Scott:** "**Maybe Aaron Donald's presence** makes the interior of the run defense better." **Mackenzie:** "**That's the way I'd look first. I think the Rams might** — it's a **14-2 straight up trend** when you're playing a team that won as a dog in its first game, you lost as a favorite in yours, and now you're a big home favorite. **Everyone's super amped on the Giants and super down on the Rams. This might be the reversal. And if they're up 14-0 in the first half, Skattebo is not getting 50 yards.**" ### Dart Rushing OVER — The Correlation **Scott:** "**If he's running for his life — if the pass rush is getting to him — that's not a bad idea.**" **Mackenzie:** "**Dart had eleven attempts last week. I feel like he's going to run just as much.**" ### The Under as the Fourth Leg **Scott:** "**It's hard to bet unders anymore in the NFL. It seems like even when you're right, you're wrong.**" **Mackenzie:** "**Monday night standalone games tend to be priced heavily to the over. I lean under — I also think the Giants offense is going to come back to earth. That's my thesis.**" --- # 📐 LOOK-AHEAD vs NOW: WEEK 3 **(All current lines from FanDuel.)** | Game | Look-Ahead | Now | Move | | -------------------------- | ------------ | ------------ | ---------- | | Falcons at Packers (TNF) | GB -6.5 | **\-6.5** | — | | Panthers at Browns | CAR -3 | **\-2.5** | ⬇️ | | Jets at Lions | DET -7 | **\-6.5** | ⬇️ | | Patriots at Jaguars | JAX -2.5 | **\-2.5** | — | | Texans at Colts | HOU -2.5 | **\-2.5** | — | | **Chargers at Bills** | **BUF -4** | **\-7** | **⬆️⬆️⬆️** | | Chiefs at Dolphins | KC -8.5 | **\-10.5** | ⬆️⬆️ | | Bengals at Steelers | CIN -2.5 | **\-3.5** | ⬆️ | | **Seahawks at Commanders** | **SEA -2** | **\-6.5** | **⬆️⬆️⬆️** | | Titans at Giants | NYG -5.5 | **\-6.5** | ⬆️ | | Cardinals at 49ers | SF -8 | **\-8.5** | ⬆️ | | **Vikings at Buccaneers** | **TB -1** | **MIN -2.5** | **⬆️⬆️⬆️** | | Ravens at Cowboys | BAL -3 | **\-3** | — | | Raiders at Saints | NO -3 | **\-3** | — | | Rams at Broncos | LAR -2.5 | **\-2.5** | — | | **Eagles at Bears (MNF)** | **CHI -1.5** | **PHI -3.5** | **⬆️⬆️⬆️** | --- ## 🎯 The Reads **Falcons at Packers — no adjustment:** "**How do you not downgrade them off losing 34-3 at home to a mediocre Panthers team?** Unless Penix or Tua is back. **I'm surprised it's not seven.**" **Panthers at Browns:** "**It was Deshaun Watson's best game as a Brown.** It's got to be an upgrade to say Watson is closer to league average than some third-stringer off the bench." **Patriots at Jaguars — no move:** "**Think about what that line is saying. The Jags are as good as the Patriots by the Vegas market right now.**" **Texans at Colts — no move:** "**The Texans are 0-2 and the Colts just took the Chiefs to overtime — and the line didn't budge.**" ### 🔥 Chargers at Bills (-4 → -7) **Mackenzie:** "**That's a huge adjustment. I wish I'd bet that last week — that four would have been juicy. And I agree with the move.**" **Scott:** "**The Bills scored more points in one HALF than the Chargers have scored all season. Twenty-eight points is all the Chargers have scored.**" ### Chiefs at Dolphins (-8.5 → -10.5) **"Maybe not enough of a downgrade on Miami — they're that pitiful."** **Mackenzie:** "**The only thing is Miami in September. And I'm not sure the Chiefs can rest in the second half when they're up 20.**" ### Bengals at Steelers (-2.5 → -3.5) **Both agree** — "**a huge move through the three. Slight Bengals upgrade, and major question marks about Pittsburgh's offense.** Burrow looks all right — the back injury isn't affecting him." ### ⚠️ Seahawks at Commanders (-2 → -6.5) **No Jayden Daniels, still no Sam Darnold** **Mackenzie:** "**I think it's a little too big of an adjustment. They're BOTH on backups.** I know Washington doesn't have much of a home field advantage — **but to say it out loud: Drew Lock is a touchdown favorite on the road. Doesn't sound right.**" ### ⚠️ Titans at Giants (-5.5 → -6.5) **Scott:** "**Why are we upgrading the Giants or downgrading the Titans? The Titans almost beat the Eagles.** If Philly doesn't score with nine seconds left, are the Titans 6.5-point dogs at the Giants? **No — it's probably five.**" **Mackenzie:** "**Maybe it's just New York money. Very bullish on the Giants. It could come down if they get blown out tonight like we might think.**" ### Cardinals at 49ers (-8 → -8.5) **Both: "Not enough of an adjustment."** ### ⭐ Vikings at Buccaneers (TB -1 → MIN -2.5) **A 3.5-point swing.** "**This is absolutely pricing in Kyler Murray at quarterback** — and how negative the Bucs have looked. **I don't think Todd Bowles is long for his position.**" **Mackenzie's play: "I might be TEASING the Buccaneers up to 8.5\. It's going to be tough to beat them by ten.**" ### No Movement **Ravens at Cowboys (-3), Raiders at Saints (-3), Rams at Broncos (-2.5).** "**Saints-Raiders unchanged is interesting — both teams got upgraded.**" ### ⭐ Eagles at Bears (CHI -1.5 → PHI -3.5) **Caleb Williams is out — Tyson Bagent starts.** **Mackenzie:** "**Bagent isn't that bad.** Maybe it closes three — **maybe you grab that hook while you can.**" **Scott:** "**I honestly thought about it, especially as bad as the Eagles have looked. Maybe this is one where you buy the dip on the Chicago Bears.**" --- # 📊 TRENCH REPORT: WEEK 2 GRADED ## ✅ Top 5 Mismatches: 4-1 ATS **The only loss: Jacksonville.** *("We're still only going off one week of data — it gets sharper as we go.")* --- ## 📅 Coming Up - **Tomorrow:** **Michael Fiddle**, market reactions. - **Wednesday:** Trench Report updates for Week 3 at BettorDay.com & the app. - **Thursday:** **The BettorDay Football Show** — Scott, Fezzik, and AJ Hoffman [ Bettor Day Exclusive Sportsbook Promos Promo Codes, Unlocked For You We've partnered with top sportsbooks to bring exclusive sign-up offers to the Bettor Day community. Offers vary by location — **see what's live in your state.** Check Offers In Your State → 21+ • For entertainment purposes only • Please bet responsibly ](https://www.vaultsportshq.com/preferred-books/bettorday?ref=bettorday.com)