Overreaction Monday & MNF Same Game Parlay

Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers overreact to everything we saw in NFL Week 1 Sunday. Plus the guys build a Same Game Parlay for Broncos at Chiefs and take a look at the Week 2 lines.

Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe!

Listen

🗣️ OVERREACTION MONDAY IS BACK

Mackenzie's overreaction: "The changing of the guard has occurred in the quarterback class. All the hype about the Justin Herberts and the Kyler Murrays of our youth is out the window. It's all about Caleb Williams. It's all about Jaxson Dart..."

Scott's overreaction: "The New York Giants are winning the NFC East, and the Bills and Texans will rematch in the AFC Championship game."

📊 THE NUMBERS: EVERY SYSTEM BROKE

Scott: "We talk about how week one is an under week. Well, I got burned yesterday betting a bunch of unders."

📉 THE ZERO-PRESEASON-SNAPS SYSTEM: WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ONLY

It went 4-0 Wednesday and Thursday. Then Sunday happened.

Lamar Jackson put up 41 points for the second straight year. Trevor Lawrence had a monster week one — "though it was against the Cleveland Browns, who might be the worst team in the NFL."

The DPS Ledger (points vs expected team total)

Scott: "Lamar and Trevor skew the numbers — but overall, fading these quarterbacks in the FIRST HALF seemed to be the way to go. And then the Lions-Saints game is 7-0 at halftime and finishes with sixty-one points. What are you gonna do?"

🏈 THE HIGHEST SCORING WEEK 1 SINCE THE MERGER

Per Ben Volin: the highest-scoring week one since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger.

Mackenzie's Theory

"Maybe defenses ARE ahead of the offenses relative to the season — but last year was the most efficient on a per-play basis we've ever seen in the NFL, and the year before was close. Maybe offenses are just going to score 27 points a game this year. Maybe defenses are ahead of where they're GOING to be, but offenses have figured something out that needs another seismic shift to catch up.

Let's see what happens to the totals in week two. I think they'll adjust some — but maybe not enough."

🎯 THE STORY OF THE DAY: THE CHARGERS MASSACRE

Cardinals 26, Chargers 14 — the biggest underdog of the day

Mike Palm, VP of Operations at Circa, to Dustin Sweetelson of VSiN: between Survivor and Grandissimo, $10.3 million on the Chargers — the most on any single pick in contest history.

And: 91 contestants shoved all ten entries on the Chargers.

📼 THE RECEIPT

From the August 25th pod with Michael Fiddle:

Scott: "The Chargers will probably be the most selected team, and I'm going to caution people against it. I feel like the Cardinals can pull the upset and knock everybody out of Circa Survivor. If there's one week the Cardinals win a game, it's that week."

Fiddle: "I'll still be on the Chargers."

Scott: "I'm gonna have to remind him of that when we record tonight."

Scott's Survivor pick: Pittsburgh Steelers. ✅

Mackenzie & Dan's Survivor pick: Jacksonville Jaguars ✅

🏈 GAME BY GAME REACTION

Bengals 33, Buccaneers 27

Tampa turned it over on three consecutive possessions and were still within one score. Mackenzie: "Interceptions you can call good defense. Three fumbles in three possessions is just bad luck. By Kevin Cole's unexpected points, this was a coin flip game. The Bucs maybe don't get a downgrade for this loss."

Lions 31, Saints 30 (OT)

The Saints scored and went for two on the second overtime possession. Both hosts: 100% the right call. Scott: "It's not even a conversation. There's no world where you tie it, kick off, and hand the other team the football in sudden death." Detroit avoids the biggest collapse in franchise history, New Orleans just misses the biggest comeback in theirs.

Jets 23, Titans 10

Geno Smith: 85 QBR. Mackenzie: "Maybe that was just a down year in between teams — he was a top-fifteen quarterback for a couple years. Maybe he's found something with the Jets."

Ravens 41, Colts 23

Mackenzie: "They've got the best defensive coordinator in the league. Look what happened to the Seahawks — they got the best DC in the league and won a Super Bowl two years later. Jesse Minter, and Jackson and Henry look as good as ever. Five hundred yards between them." 

Steelers 20, Falcons 13 ✅

Scott's Survivor pick came through — sweatily. "I didn't understand the play calling at times — McCarthy was playing like the Falcons were a competent opponent. They got saved by their defense. TJ Watt pick six, and that's the difference." 

Bears 59, Panthers 37

Scott: "Everyone's excited about the offense — but you gave up 37 to the Carolina Panthers. And they went for it on fourth down at their own 21, didn't get it, and it led to a touchdown. Who does that?" Mackenzie eats it: "Ben Johnson does that. And I said confidently on the Survivor podcast that the Bears have something in the water — I think I might have been wrong. I think I swung and missed. They finally maybe have something with this coach-quarterback combo."

Jaguars 34, Browns 10 ✅

Mack's official Survivor pick cashed. Trevor Lawrence: four touchdown passes. The question — does Watson start week three at home vs Carolina? Mackenzie: "I'll say yes, maybe 55%. He didn't play MORE terrible than I expected — he was just generally as terrible as he's been." Scott: "If they have a disaster against the Bucs next week, I don't know how you put him in front of that fan base at 0-2."

Bills 36, Texans 31

Scott: "I would sign up right now for this to be the AFC Championship game. 

Raiders 27, Dolphins 13

No Brock Bowers, no problem — Ashton Jeanty had a monster game. Mackenzie: "This was the one. This was the Dolphins best chance on the schedule. Winless is in play — especially if the Jets are even decent. If they're a .500 team, the Dolphins aren't beating them."

Vikings 39, Packers 22

22 unanswered in the fourth. Kyler Murray knocked out with a concussion in the first quarter; Carson Wentz finished 12/19, 133 yards, three touchdowns while getting beat up all game. The turn: Jordan Love threw for 387, but Minnesota's pass rush got him four times late. "In our preseason Trench Report we had the Packers DEAD LAST, 32nd. They looked like it." 

Eagles 24, Commanders 22

Washington backdoors the cover with a late touchdown, then fails on the two-point try. ✅ Saquon Barkley went over his rushing total — our Trench Report play — with 83 yards (42 on one carry). Scott: "More negative than positive for Eagles fans. A bunch of three-and-outs, and Hurts looked like a quarterback playing his first game in a new system." Mackenzie: "They might need a weapon. Dallas Goedert is the only one with four catches. That's suspicious. They didn't care about AJ Brown last year with that coordinator — this coordinator might miss him."

Giants 28, Cowboys 20 (SNF) ✅

✅ Isaiah Likely over 3.5 receptions, finished with EIGHT catches, 78 yards, TWO touchdowns.

The scheme breakdown Scott loved: "It's a hybrid offense. Big boy football. Smash-mouth. Matt Nagy brings the Chiefs stuff — that Likely touchdown was exactly a Travis Kelce play, the tight end screen. And Greg Roman is their senior offensive assistant, so you get the read-option stuff he ran with Lamar — and Dart took off on a read option with Cam Skattebo."

The tempered version: "I don't know if they win the NFC East. They're not better than the Eagles. But the Giants are going to be a sneaky team that contends for a wild card." (Giants to make the playoffs: +166.) Mackenzie: "If their big three are healthy — Skattebo, Dart, and Nabers — their record is pretty good. A lot of those bad seasons, those three weren't out there."

🏈 TONIGHT: BRONCOS AT CHIEFS

⭐ THE BEST BET WE'VE HELD FOR A MONTH: BRONCOS +3

Scott: "When Andy Reid said in preseason week one that Mahomes wasn't playing at all, I bet the Broncos +3. I think Mahomes looks rusty having not played and coming back off the knee injury. This is the time you want to get him.

⭐ THE SAME GAME PARLAY: +1038

(The three-leg version paid +452. Adding Waddle more than doubles it.)

Mackenzie: "I love throwing a little anti-correlation in there. Get a little jump to the number."

The Legs

Under 43.5 (Mackenzie's leg): "I would have said under if I DIDN'T watch football Sunday — and the total is actually dropping. Broncos are a defensive team, and I think Mahomes is careful coming out of the gate. The primetime and standalone games have been a lot less scoring. I'm gonna say the under. Contrarian style."

Bo Nix over 15.5 rushing: Scott: "I talked to a Broncos reporter who said you wouldn't even know he had an ankle injury— he's fine, running around, excited. And we always love these primetime standalone games for quarterbacks running. It's like a playoff game." The split last year vs KC: 3 carries for 8 yards in one — but 9 carries for 42 yards in the Christmas Day game. Standalone primetime, Nix used his legs.

Kelce under 42.5 (Mackenzie's call): "Travis Kelce under. He might just be washed. He's a married man now." — plus KC leaning on Kenneth Walker and a healthy Rashee Rice commanding attention. (He'd avoid the receptions under: "he might get a two-yard touchdown screen like they tend to do.")

Waddle over 53.5: "The newest weapon for Bo Nix against a revamped Chiefs secondary relying on a rookie they moved up to draft. I think Waddle makes his presence known — a couple of catch-and-run plays."

📐 LOOK-AHEAD vs NOW: THE WEEK 2 LINES

(Mackenzie guessed each one live. All lines from FanDuel.)

🚨 The Biggest Overreactions

Eagles -7 at Tennessee (from -4.5). Scott: "That might be the biggest overreaction to week number one."Mackenzie: "The Titans were that bad losing a pick game?"

Seahawks -4.5 at Arizona (from -10). "That's a non-Sam Darnold line AND an upgrade on the Cardinals. A bunch baked in there."

49ers -13.5 over Miami (from -10.5). Mackenzie: "It went to 11.5 after the Niners played, then all the way to 13 once the Dolphins played."

Texans -3 despite LOSING. Mackenzie: "Really? Texans get upgraded off a loss. Wow."

On Giants at Rams (-7.5): "I think you bet it now. I think it closes seven." (Scott agrees: "Do we fade the Rams? Myles Garrett goes on IR, but maybe Aaron Donald makes his debut — you're plugging Donald in for an injured Garrett.")

📊 TRENCH REPORT: WEEK 1 GRADED

Top 5 Mismatches: 3-2

Rushing Mismatches

Scott on Bucky Irving: "Even though it's a loss, I consider it a win. The game script led to him not carrying the football — but 5.6 yards per carry tells me we were on the right side."

⭐ THE REAL EDGE: THE CLOSEST MATCHUPS

Dogs in the closest trench matchups are 3-1 ATS this week, with tonight pending.

The only miss: Carolina against Chicago.

Scott: "That's where the edges are — taking the points with the dogs in these closest matchups. And tonight's game is, in fact, our closest matchup of the week." Denver +3

📈 Premium Scorecard

27-19 on premium plays for the weekend. +10% ROI.

Become a Bettor Day Insider or Premium Member See both tiers →

The Bettor Day app is now available on BOTH Apple and Google Play