> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Monday, October 5th, 2026 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/monday-october-5th-2026/ - Published: 2026-10-05T10:00:32.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-05T10:00:31.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## NFL Week 4 Sunday Recap / Week 5 Lookahead & MNF Same Game Parlay *Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers recap Sunday's Week 4 action in the NFL, preview Monday Night Football with a Same Game Parlay, and take a look at the Week 5 lines.* [![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! [Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) # 🏈 THE THEME OF WEEK FOUR: LATE OFFENSE AND LATE BAD DEFENSE **Scott: "We saw a LOT of bad defense late in games. You have the lead with under two minutes remaining. All you have to do is not let them score. And you let them go right down the field into the end zone."** --- # 📊 GAME BY GAME --- ## 🐈‍⬛ Panthers 32, Lions 26 (SNF) Detroit had the ball under two minutes — and the Panthers didn't allow a single first down on the final drive. (The one GOOD late defense) ### The Lions Defense Is the Story | Stat | Detroit | | ----------------------------- | ------------------------------------- | | **Games allowing 30+ points** | **FOUR — all four to start the year** | Scott: **"Just pencil them in for the over. That's what's going to happen."** ### 🔄 The Bryce Young Turn **29/41, 329 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 85.4 QBR. Chuba Hubbard: 20 carries, 122 yards, 2 TD.** **And the Panthers had the NUMBER TWO SUCCESS RATE in the NFL on Sunday — second only to San Francisco.** Mac: "It's crazy how the tables have turned. Would you have to give two first round picks AND CJ Stroud to get Bryce Young? Everyone had concluded that was the worst trade in history. Things change." --- ## 🥇 49ers 24, Broncos 14 — AND A RECORD **The 49ers are 4-0\. And they became the FIRST TEAM SINCE THE 2005 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS to start a season without allowing a single quarterback sack in their first four games.** --- ### ⭐ THE BROCK PURDY MARKET INEFFICIENCY Mac: "Trent Williams is worth his money. Brock Purdy is worth the fifty million a year they're giving him. **WHEN WILL PEOPLE BELIEVE?** I was looking at the MVP odds on a prediction market right after the game. Two bad games in a row for Josh Allen, another great game for Purdy — touchdowns, no picks, NO SACKS. And sacks are a quarterback stat; Brady and Manning taught us that. **It was DEAD EVEN.** Twenty-one percent Josh Allen, twenty percent Brock Purdy. I thought: that's about right. Allen's the better player, but Purdy's having the better season. Then money came in. And it didn't come in on Purdy. **IT CAME IN ON JOSH ALLEN.** People do not believe Brock Purdy is in that class, even though year after year he's top five in whatever metric you want. And this year he's at his best. He said entering the season he was getting back to basics and taking the fundamentals more seriously. Proof's in the pudding." | Player | MVP Odds | | ---------------- | --------- | | Josh Allen | +230 | | **Brock Purdy** | **+450** | | Lamar Jackson | +600 | | **Dak Prescott** | **+1400** | --- ### 🏔️ THE BRONCOS STAT WORTH SAVING **Mac: "If you're in the Broncos' camp, you have reason to be optimistic. Their opponents, if you take out Broncos games, are ELEVEN AND ONE on the season. BEST IN THE NFL.** **It can't be better than that. They've had a gauntlet of a schedule, so maybe their 2-2 record doesn't show how good they actually might be.**" --- ## 🏈 Chiefs 30, Raiders 27 — THE ULTIMATE BACKDOOR Scott was on the Chiefs -4.5 as a best bet AND in his Circa Millions entry. Mac bought it from -4.5 to -4. ### The Sequence | Moment | What Happened | | --------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Up 23-19 | **Chiefs go for two. Don't get it.** | | 3:21 left | Kenneth Walker TD | | Ensuing kickoff | **Raiders FUMBLE it** | | Next play | **Walker again — 30-19** | | \~3:00 left | **Kirk Cousins escapes a sack à la Eli Manning, throws a TD to Brock Bowers** | | — | **Two-point conversion: 30-27\. Backdoor.** | | Third down | **MAHOMES THROWS INCOMPLETE INSTEAD OF TAKING A SACK** | | 1:16 left | Raiders get the ball back with a chance to tie or win | | :10 left | Cousins throws an interception. Game over. | --- ### 🚨 THE MAHOMES MISTAKE Mac: **"FALL DOWN.** Which makes the play all the more insane, because he's the most experienced guy in the league, he's been in the biggest games. **YOU HAVE TO KNOW TIME AND SCORE.** **There's no benefit to throwing a fifty-yard pass on third down when you can run FORTY SECONDS off."** ### 📊 And the Raiders Reassessment Mac: "If you do one of those stat-based box score approximations, **THEY SHOULD HAVE WON THIS GAME BY TEN POINTS.** They won first downs by ten and yards by forty. You'd think the Chiefs are the more buttoned-up organization — they were two for two in the red zone and they DIDN'T FUMBLE THE KICKOFF. That's why they won." **Scott: "I thought the 3-0 record was fluky considering they beat the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints with a massive positive turnover differential. But they held their own. Maybe we need to reevaluate the Raiders."** --- ## 😤 Vikings 15, Dolphins 10 — A HISTORIC AND MISERABLE 4-0 ### The Company They Keep **The Vikings join the 1922 Chicago Cardinals, the 1923 Chicago Cardinals, and the 1934 Detroit Lions as the ONLY NFL teams to start 4-0 without scoring an offensive touchdown in two of those four games.** --- ### 🗣️ SCOTT'S DEFENSE OF BRIAN FLORES "Brian Flores and the defensive players on the Minnesota Vikings **DESERVE BETTER**. It is not fair. They are playing their butts off and Flores is coaching out of his mind. **The Vikings defense is ELITE with a capital E. But they get no help from their offense.**" --- ## 💀 Cowboys 34, Texans 30 — THE TEXANS ARE 0-4 **Scott: "I'm officially done with the arguments of *they're 0-4 but they could be 4-0* — even though I said that when they were 0-3\. The Houston Texans LEGIT could be 4-0\. And instead they're 0-4."** ### The DeMeco Ryans Collapse Pattern **Mac: "TWENTY-EIGHT POINTS IN THE SECOND HALF ALLOWED, THREE DIFFERENT TIMES this season.** **Best defense in the league, purportedly, people were saying in the preseason. You get a stop, you win the game. And THREE TIMES IN A ROW they have not done that.**" ### The Playoff Market Reversal | Team | Record | To Make the Playoffs | | ------- | ------- | -------------------- | | Raiders | **3-1** | **+168** | | Texans | **0-4** | **+240** | **On whether Houston can still get there: "Not the way the Jaguars are playing. There are wild card possibilities and the schedule gets easier with the Titans next week. But the Jaguars are running away with the division."** --- ## 🏈 Ravens 24, Titans 18 — AND A WALKING BOOT **Tennessee backdoors with a touchdown and two-point conversion at 1:12\. Lamar Jackson left with an ankle injury and was seen in a walking boot after.** Mac: "Pretty concerned. Lamar Jackson has had two types of seasons: MVP seasons, and seasons where he has MYSTERIOUS AILMENTS AND INJURIES PILING UP — and it seems to snowball. He was 15 for 20 with 200 yards in the first half. That's ridiculous. Tyler Huntley was fine without him, 8 for 9\. But a huge downgrade. The good thing is the other teams in their division lost, so they can probably withstand not having him for a game or two." --- ## 🏈 Packers 17, Buccaneers 14 — Tampa Is 0-4 **Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels started for the injured Baker Mayfield: 19/27, 148 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT.** **Mac: "If you just looked at the defensive side, Bowles looks good — especially in the second half. The Packers scored on the first possession of the third quarter and NOTHING the rest of the way.** **He's probably not long for this job. But SOMEONE WILL ENTERTAIN HIM AS A DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR the way they're playing.**" --- ## 🐏 Rams 24, Eagles 20 **Scott: "I'm sitting on an Eagles +3 ticket from the summer. As soon as Saquon Barkley went out, I live bet the Rams -2.5\. That came through — I was trying to buy back on my ticket."** The Eagles didn't score in the second half. The Rams scored 14 unanswered in the fourth, including the go-ahead touchdown with 1:10 left. ### The Eagles Problem **They had the WORST EPA PER PLAY ON OFFENSE in the NFL on Sunday.** **"Lane Johnson was a scratch — and we know the record when he doesn't play. Then Saquon gets hurt with the hamstring. And you were already without DeVonta Smith. Your offense is just NON-EXISTENT."** ### 🎲 The Stafford Theory, Continued Mac: "Matthew Stafford hasn't played well all season and you're 2-2, only two games out of the division. **I said last week on the Survivor show — I think Stafford is going *this is my last year, let me sow my oats, take all the chances I can, have fun out there.* He's taking a lot of risks. McVay even called an NBA-style timeout in the fourth quarter to rally the troops. They were lucky to get out of there.**" --- ## 🗽 Giants 36, Cardinals 24 — THE GIANTS ARE 3-1 **Jameis Winston: 250 yards, 3 TD. Malik Nabers: 6 catches, 112 yards, TD. And a pick six to seal it.** --- # 🔄 FLIP THE SCRIPT **Scott: "I know things aren't created equal, but I like to play this game. I may start making this a feature on the pod."** ## The Framework **Ask: if this game were at the OTHER team's stadium, what would the spread be?** | Step | The Math | | -------------- | ---------------------------------------- | | Actual line | **Cardinals -2.5 at the Giants** | | Neutral field | Cardinals -4 *(give 1.5 for home field)* | | **In Arizona** | **Cardinals -5.5 to -6** | **Scott: "There is NO WORLD in which you're laying five and a half or six with the Cardinals over the Giants. So how did this spread make sense?"** **Mac: "How absurd. It's the market overreacting — and I FELL INTO IT. I said on the Survivor show that the Cardinals feel like a 3-1 team.** But at the beginning of the season it was: do you want the Cardinals to have the worst record or the Dolphins? Regardless of what you thought about the Giants, the Cardinals were considered one of the **WORST TEAMS IN THE LEAGUE.** They're not six-point favorites versus anybody anywhere. Maybe the Dolphins at home. Maybe." --- ## 🐆 Jaguars 22, Bengals 17 — Jacksonville Is 3-1 **Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards — and a couple of picks. The Jaguars defense came up when it mattered.** ### 🏃 THE RUN GAME RENAISSANCE Mac: "Remember when ten years ago everyone was talking about how inefficient running was on a per-play basis, and running backs were going away? All the new brilliant offensive minds — however brilliant you think they are — **THEY ALL RUN THE BALL A LOT.** **Fifty-four rushing attempts versus twenty-three pass attempts in this game. That was the difference. YOU'RE GOING TO MAKE MISTAKES IF YOU DROP BACK 54 TIMES. You're not if you do it 23 times.** Liam Coen has a very tight ship. **I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO WIN THIRTEEN GAMES THIS SEASON.**" --- ## 🐻 Bears 23, Jets 12 — THE STAT OF THE WEEK | Team | Number | | ------------------------------ | ------ | | **Bears first downs** | **34** | | **Jets total offensive plays** | **32** | And it gets better: the Jets scored a touchdown to make it 23-12 with 9:16 left. **THEY NEVER SAW THE FOOTBALL AGAIN.** The Bears ran an 18-play, 76-yard drive that consumed the entire remaining 9:16. **Mac: "An old-school stat a lot of NFL people use is completions plus rushing attempts — how many times you keep the ball and the clock running. The goal is fifty total. FIFTY-FOUR RUSHING ATTEMPTS BY ITSELF GETS YOU THERE.** 230 yards, no play longer than 20 yards, but FOUR different players had a long of 10-plus. Just matriculating the ball down the field. Old school football." --- ## 🚩 Patriots 29, Bills 26 — AND A BILLS WARNING **Drake Maye's best game of the year: 22/37, 269 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, plus 54 rushing yards. The Patriots scored late on an incredible one-handed catch by Efton Chism III.** --- ### ⭐ THE STRENGTH-OF-SCHEDULE RED FLAG Mac: "I came away from this game **QUESTIONING the Bills.** I looked at all their opponents' records — if you remove the games against Buffalo, **THE BILLS' OPPONENTS ARE 3-9\. That's TIED FOR WORST IN THE LEAGUE.** The impressive win over the Texans looks a lot less impressive now. The impressive win over the Chargers looks less impressive this week. Josh Allen has had two subpar games. We were crowning this team. They were quickly the Super Bowl favorites after week one. I'M NOT SURE THERE IS A FAVORITE. I'm not sure any of these teams have separated from the pack — and I'm very skeptical the Bills are much better than the pack." Scott: "The Patriots were the ones missing key defensive players — no Barmore, no Gonzalez. But the BILLS defense looked like the ones missing All-Pros as they let Drake Maye go right down the field." --- ## 🇬🇧 Colts 30, Commanders 13 (London) **Marcus Mariota went out. Rutgers' Athan Kaliakmanis played the bulk of the game. The Commanders tied with the Eagles for the WORST offensive EPA per play on Sunday.** Mac: "In the preseason we liked the Washington **ALTERNATE TEAM TOTAL UNDER**, because they have an injury-prone quarterback and a bad, injured offensive line. That's exactly how it's played out. If they start Kaliakmanis for a while, they're probably winning **FOUR GAMES** this year — and that's probably **Dan Quinn's last year in Washington."** --- # 🏈 TONIGHT: FALCONS AT SAINTS **Saints -1.5, total 47.5.** **The 20-year anniversary of the Superdome reopening — the Steve Gleason blocked punt, the Drew Brees and Sean Payton team that went on to the Super Bowl. A rematch of that exact game.** --- ## 📉 THE LINE IS MOVING AGAINST THE NARRATIVE | Stage | Line | | ------------------------------- | --------------- | | Look-ahead | **Saints -3.5** | | After the Falcons' Thursday win | **Saints -2.5** | | **Now** | **Saints -1.5** | Mac: "Do you think the reunion matters? Is the crowd going to be that crazy twenty years later? **THE MARKET IS VERY COLD ABOUT THIS STUFF.** A lot of money on Atlanta, despite the narrative that this is a coronation and a celebration of all things New Orleans. **IT RAISES MY EYEBROWS.** Usually when there's **SHARP MONEY AGAINST A NARRATIVE**, it makes me very interested in that side." --- ## ⭐ THE SAME GAME PARLAY ### The Base: +428 | Leg | Bet | | --- | ------------------------------------------ | | 1 | **Drake London OVER 78.5 receiving yards** | | 2 | **Falcons MONEYLINE** (+118) | | 3 | **OVER 47.5** | ### ⭐ The Four-Leg: **+1,709** | 4 | **Michael Penix UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns** | ### The Alternates | Build | Price | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------ | | Base three-leg | **+428** | | Add Tyler Shough over 254.5 passing yards instead | +701 | | **Add Penix under 1.5 passing TDs** | **+1,709** ⭐ | | **Drop the Falcons moneyline** *(London over + game over + Penix under)* | **+686** | --- ### The Legs **Drake London:** "The last time we saw the Falcons it was Penix's first game — he threw for 256 yards and **194 OF THEM WENT TO DRAKE LONDON.**" **Mac on Penix: "Maybe the most underrated quarterback in the league. He's only started 13 games, but in FIVE of them he's at an 80-plus QBR. The one time we see him come back into the game, it's a completely different offense — from three points to thirty-five points."** **The over:** Scott: "It's very square." Mac: "It is a night game, and I hate betting overs on night games. But sometimes it's hip to be square." ### 🔀 The Anti-Correlation **Scott: "We have to put in a negative correlation to jack this thing up. Is there a world in which Drake London goes over 78.5 but Penix goes UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns?"** Mac: "Of course. You just need two or three goal line drives that end in a RUSHING touchdown and we're almost guaranteed to get there. **Bijan Robinson got the big payday. They're going to want him to hit pay dirt. And Penix only had ONE touchdown last week despite thirty-five points.**" --- # 📐 LOOK-AHEAD vs NOW: WEEK 5 | Game | Look-Ahead | Now | Read | | ------------------------------ | ---------- | ------------ | ----------------------------- | | Bucs at Cowboys (TNF) | DAL -9.5 | **\-9.5** | No change | | **Eagles vs Jaguars (London)** | JAX -3 | **\-4.5** | **"Might need to be HIGHER"** | | **Bears at Packers** | GB -2.5 | **CHI -2.5** | ⭐ **Packers teaser** | | Texans at Titans | HOU -6.5 | **\-6.5** | No change | | **Bengals at Dolphins** | CIN -9 | **\-7.5** | ⭐ **Teaser leg + Survivor** | | Raiders at Patriots | NE -3.5 | **\-3.5** | No change | | Vikings at Saints | MIN -1.5 | **\-1.5** | Pending tonight | | **Browns at Jets** | NYJ -2.5 | **\-1.5** | "Browns might be good" | | Colts at Steelers | PIT -2.5 | **\-1.5** | Steelers coming off London | | **Giants at Commanders** | WAS -2.5 | **\-3.5** | ⚠️ Daniels uncertainty | | **Broncos at Chargers** | DEN -1.5 | **\-3.5** | Essentially neutral | | Lions at Cardinals | DET -5 | **\-4.5** | "Worthy downgrade" | | **Ravens at Falcons** | BAL -6 | **\-4.5** | ⚠️ Lamar uncertainty | | **Bills at Rams (MNF)** | LAR -2.5 | **\-2.5** | Super Bowl preview? | | **49ers at Seahawks** | SEA -3 | **\-3** | ⭐ **"A disrespectful line"** | --- ## The Reads **Eagles/Jaguars:** "If there's no Saquon, this line might need to be higher. Barkley's worth one and a half. Lane Johnson's worth a half. DeVonta's worth a half." **Mac: "How much do we give the Jaguars for London home field? If their institutional knowledge of London is that much better, four and a half is justified."** **⭐ Bears at Packers:** The look-ahead had Green Bay -2.5; it's now **Chicago -2.5.** **Mac: "The last time the Bears were favorites at Lambeau was SEPTEMBER 2006 — twenty years ago."** With Micah Parsons possibly out until November, **both landed on a Packers teaser.** *(Mac's historical note: "I always take the Packers in this rivalry — it's been like a seventy percent ATS number.")* **⭐ Bengals at Dolphins:** **Mac: "I don't think you upgrade the Dolphins for the VIKINGS' performance. Vikings have been terrible on offense all year versus everybody, and eight first downs does not an upgrade make. Maybe this is the other teaser leg. BENGALS AREN'T GOING TO LOSE IN MIAMI."** Scott: "The Bengals might be the Survivor play too." **Commanders at Giants:** The line moved UP despite the quarterback injuries. **Mac: "Is there Daniels potential coming back? That's the only thing that would make sense."** Dan Quinn said the hope is for Daniels to play in week five. **Mac: "It's pricing in the uncertainty. If you have a bot hooked up for that news, you can bet either way — that line will move."** **Ravens at Falcons:** The look-ahead was -6, it's now -4.5\. **Mac: "Because it's closer to six than to 2.5, THE MARKET THINKS LAMAR IS BACK. Are you going to skip the biggest game of the week?"** --- ## ⭐ THE WEEK 5 PLAY: 49ERS +3 AT SEATTLE **Mac: "Even if we don't get our guys back, I think this is a little bit of a DISRESPECTFUL LINE.** **The Seahawks, in the modern vintage, have NOT had a great home field advantage statistically since the Legion of Boom days. And the Niners are as good as the Seahawks — look at the Super Bowl favorite odds, they're neck and neck. San Francisco has the better record. They've played better this season.** **Give me the field goal with my 49ers. The Seahawks didn't cover last week. The 49ers have covered FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW.**" **Scott: "I think the only play here is to take the points with the 49ers."** --- ## 📅 COMING THIS WEEK **A quarter-pole article is coming to BettorDay.com and the BettorDay mobile app** — where we are after the first four weeks, reevaluating teams, and some stats you might not consider when looking at them. **Plus more MLB postseason free play articles**, and continued college football coverage after a great Saturday. **Bettor Day Insider** Membership gets full access to all databases and HQs. **Bettor Day Premium** gets all of our picks. 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