Overreaction Monday & MNF Preview / Same Game Parlay

Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers react and over-react to NFL Week 7 Sunday and preview Monday Night Football between the Eagles and Cowboys with a Same Game Parlay.

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💀 TWO WEEKS, TWO DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES, TWO MASSACRES

The Giants beat the Texans 27-21 in overtime as double-digit home underdogs. Circa Survivor and Splash Sports both took heavy casualties again.

Dan and Mac survived — barely — with the Vikings.

🧠 THE PATTERN WORTH NOTICING

Mac: "What's interesting is the last two double-digit favorites — the survivor killers — have both been losing teams.The Rams last week were a losing team, and they continued to lose. The Texans this week were 2-4. Now they're 2-5."

"I think we're a little too committed to our priors — our preseason priors. We just assume, okay, you've got to win this one, you're max motivated, you're better than your record. They probably ARE better than their record. But they are more distant from where we started the season. Maybe they'll turn it around. They're not there now."

📊 The Season-Long Numbers

Scott: "So even when they're winning these games, they're not covering. I just think it's hard to win by margin in the NFL."

SEAHAWKS 20, CHIEFS 3

Sam Darnold: 20-of-28, 257 yards, one touchdown, one interception. Good Sam and bad Sam in the same night.

The near-disaster that didn't matter

End of the first half, Seattle had first and goal at the two and a chance at the double dip — go up 17-0, then take the ball to open the third and make it 24-0. Darnold threw an interception in the end zone instead. It led to a missed Harrison Butker field goal, so it cost nothing.

And it was his only turnover of the night. That turned out to be the entire game.

⭐ The simplest answer in football

Scott: "I talked to somebody from Seattle before the game and asked, what do the Seahawks and Sam Darnold have to do to beat the Kansas City Chiefs? And he said it's the most simple answer you could ever give:"

"Don't turn the football over."

"Because if you look at the Seahawks this year, their losses are all by a field goal or less, and they're all because Darnold turned the football over. If he doesn't do that, this team is just as good as they were last year. The only reason they're not is the turnover bill."

📈 The Numbers

Emanuel Wilson rushed for 100 yards. JSN: nine catches, 150 yards and a touchdown. Seattle finished with 24 first downs and a 200-yard advantage.

Mac: "This was like the Super Bowl effort. A quality AFC team, completely dominated on both sides of the ball. I know the Chiefs missed two field goals so you could say it could have been closer — but it also could have been a lot larger of a lead. This is the best Seahawks game by far since that Super Bowl."

🦅 FALCONS 29, 49ERS 20

Scott doesn't downgrade San Francisco at all: "It was a terrible spot for them. Short week, traveling cross country for the early game, banged up with all those players out — against an Atlanta team on its third consecutive home game having dropped the first two. A circle-the-wagons game for Atlanta."

Mac: "I don't downgrade them for the performance — but if Christian McCaffrey's not 100%, you've got to downgrade for that. We ran out of steam. Literally, up 14-3, we ran out of steam."

🛌 THE TREND THAT IS CRUSHING: HOME TEAMS WITH A REST ADVANTAGE

Worth the honesty up front: this is not a strongly profitable trend over the long haul — it's had good years and bad years. This year it has been a machine.

Every one of them won on Sunday:

⭐ THIS WEEK'S THREE QUALIFIERS

🏈 AROUND THE LEAGUE

🟤 Browns 27, Titans 24

⭐ The Titans have now lost 13 straight games following a win. "This was one of those auto plays."

Mac: "The market upgrades them after a win, but they definitely shouldn't have. That was the Colts losing last week.They're just a terrible outfit." Tony Pollard went 25 carries, 129 yards and three touchdowns, and Cam Ward was fine on paper with one pick — "probably their best performance of the season. And last week was just an anomaly that they happened to win."

Scott: "Or it's because the Browns are incredible. They're 5-2 and in first place. Maybe we're just all wrong about the Cleveland Browns."

🐬 Dolphins 28, Jets 25 — Miami's first win

Another Aaron Glenn clock catastrophe. He took all of his timeouts into the halftime locker room 

⭐ The Jets have been outscored 107 to 6 in the final two minutes of the first half since Aaron Glenn took over.

Scott: "This guy is so out of his depth as a head coach, it's beyond me how he is still employed. His only strength is, okay, he's a very good defensive mind. Well — you allowed Malik Willis and the Dolphins to put up 28 against you. So how good of a defensive mind are you?"

Mac: "You allowed Malik Willis to throw up a 99.5 QBR on you. That's unheard of for a guy named Malik Willis. He's just not that good. When he does get fired, this is going to be the last vestige of hope in New York for Aaron Glenn."

🏴‍☠️ Buccaneers 43, Panthers 13

Baker Mayfield came back and didn't have to do a thing: 7-of-11, 64 yards, one touchdown.

⭐ Tampa Bay ran it 49 times for 258 yards and three touchdowns.

Bucky Irving 106 and two scores, Kenneth Gainwell 88, Sean Tucker 52 and a touchdown. They added a 32-yard fumble return for a touchdown and a two-point defensive score for good measure.

Mac: "Bryce Young has had bad games against the Buccaneers. And talking about coaches getting fired — everyone has Todd Bowles on that chopping block. But if you continue to be the kryptonite to the other good team in your division and the quarterback in that division, you're going to have a fighting chance."

🎪 And the NFC South is now genuinely wide open

Mac: "Eight and nine, here we come."

⭐ Both guys picked Atlanta. Mac: "I'm going to say Atlanta. Even though they were projected to be last. That's how crazy the NFC South is."

🇫🇷 Steelers 16, Saints 10 — in Paris

Down 3-0 after the first quarter. Of course.

⭐ Since Tyler Shough became the Saints' starter

First half: 3-12-1 straight up, 4-12 ATS First quarter, last 27 games: 1-23-4 straight up, 4-24 ATS

💡 And Mac found the actual culprit

Mac: "You know what's crazy about that? Their coach and play caller, Kellen Moore, never scores in the first quarter.Remember we used to talk about this back in the pregame days."

"Kellen Moore had the worst offense in the league for a team that won the Super Bowl in 2024 as the offensive coordinator. First 15 plays — come on. Draw them up."

🐅 Bengals 35, Ravens 13 — THE FIRST TIME IN 76 YEARS

Baltimore led 13-0 at halftime. Cincinnati scored 35 unanswered in the second half.

⭐ It's the first time in 76 years that a team leading by at least 13 at halftime lost by at least 20.

Mac had the right side: "As someone who had Bengals minus three — that's just how I drew it up. Road favorite, extra rest. You could say they had a little more juice in the tank. We've seen rest advantage matter in this league. And apparently Ja'Marr Chase had a Rudy-like halftime speech."

🗽 GIANTS 27, TEXANS 21 (OT) — J.J. McCARTHY LOOKS THE PART

McCarthy: 20-of-28 for 252 yards.

Scott: "Maybe he's just comfortable playing for a Harbaugh. Jim had him at Michigan, now John has him in New York. Maybe a second chance, a change of scenery and a system that benefits him."

Mac's defense of the whole draft class: "Look at the other quarterbacks in that draft at their low point. Caleb Williams had some really ugly losses, including not knowing how to snap the ball in the fourth quarter with the game on the line. Michael Penix has looked bad. Drake Maye didn't look good his first year. Maybe Kevin O'Connell just likes veteran quarterbacks and doesn't develop rookies. But that entire draft class looks legitimate, and he was among them. He might have just found his groove here."

😤 And Cam Skattebo Answered

17 carries, 124 yards, a touchdown — one week after being benched.

⛰️ Broncos 30, Cardinals 16

Bo Nix threw for 222 and a touchdown. But the 54-yard touchdown to R.J. Harvey was a screen pass he took to the house. He is still not throwing the football down the field, and his aDOT is still incredibly low.

What was real: a 62-yard touchdown run, on which he reportedly hit 19 miles per hour.

Mac: "That's Caleb Williams speed. He had more rushing yards in this game — almost double what he had the entire season. So if he was skittish because of the ankle and now that's gone, that's reason for optimism."

And the macro case: "The Broncos have had the hardest strength of schedule in the league. I'm still optimistic on them, especially if Bo Nix can be even decent like he was yesterday."

🤡 Lions 20, Packers 17 — "A Dumb Football Game"

⭐ Both teams combined for four red zone possessions that produced ZERO points. ⭐ This game had the highest total on the board and produced 37 points — on roughly 750 total yards.

Mac: "If you'd told me 750 total yards, I probably would have signed up for the over."

The dumb specifics: a roughing-the-passer penalty that extended a drive, and Dan Campbell going for it on fourth down at his own 27-yard line before handing Green Bay the ball with a chance to take the lead.

⭐ And the Dan Campbell double standard

Mac: "Someone did this study — Dan Campbell is the most aggressive fourth down coach since 2018. It would be a talking point if he'd lost after doing that. But he gets away with it yet again.

🐏 Rams 35, Raiders 21 — And a Quarterback Situation

Kirk Cousins: 26-of-44, 295 yards, two touchdowns. The Raiders pulled within one score in the fourth, helped by Rams turnovers, before L.A. pulled away.

⭐ The quote that matters

Klint Kubiak, asked whether Cousins keeps the job: "We're thinking about everything."

Mac: "That's usually the death knell — when they're taking a look at everything."

Mac on what Las Vegas is doing: "What are you playing for? The Raiders have lost four in a row after starting 3-1.They're in a very tough division. Probably just like they did with Drake Maye — even though it wasn't great to start — just give him some reps. Get him out there. There's only one way to learn how to play football, and that's to go play football."

🎰 MONDAY NIGHT: COWBOYS AT EAGLES — THE SAME GAME PARLAY

Cowboys −4.5 on the road | Total 44.5

🏥 Philadelphia's availability report

That's their top two wide receivers.

🧠 Mac's read

Mac: "I think the Cowboys offense is better than it's looked the last two weeks. Todd Bowles, playing for his season, held them to 16 — and there were some tipped passes and picks. And the Packers at Lambeau in primetime is not the easiest place to play. I feel like they fall back into being one of the better offenses in the league."

"And I just think the Eagles can't do anything. Without any of their named guys — their big three all gone. At first I thought it's too many points for a road team as bad as the Cowboys. But I think the Eagles are that banged up. Losers of four straight, and they haven't scored more than 20 since Week 2 against the Titans. I feel like this is 27-17. Cowboys get back in the winning column."

Scott is less sure on the side: "If Saquon's back it's got to give them some boost. I don't know if I want to lay it on the road. But I do like your angle — I could see a Cowboys team total going over."

⭐ THE BUILD

Why each one

The over. Mac: "People are looking at last week where they scored 36 — but that was kind of a fluky 36, where both teams should have scored more. Tanner McKee could put up 21. He could get us there."

Pickens over Lamb. Scott offered the choice. Mac: "Let's go Pickens. I could see them trying to take Lamb out of it, Pickens being the beneficiary."

The McKee under is the correlation breaker — an under on passing yards paired with an over on the game.

And the Barkley leg is Mac's addition, which doubled the ticket. "He's literally the only player they go to. He has 20 carries and 10 catches — one of those games." Mac on the price: "More than double because of the anti-correlation. I like it."

Scott's script for how it cashes: "Tanner McKee finishes with 170, 180. Barkley catches a screen pass and goes off for 25 or 26 — but it's really Barkley running the ball. And the Cowboys put up the bulk of that 44. Maybe McKee even gets benched"

🏀 NBA WEEK ONE: MAC HAS BEEN WAITING FOR THIS DATA

Luka scored 50. The Lakers are averaging 128 a game and look, in Mac's word, amazing.

🌵 The West may already be cracked open

Mac: "Because of Williams' injury — he might be done for the season already — the West could be much more fun than we anticipated. The Spurs haven't looked great. Maybe people have solved Wemby a little bit. And without their second-best player, the Thunder, as good as they've looked, might be in trouble."

⭐ AND NOW THE LEBRON SEGMENT

Mac: "I couldn't get away with not talking about LeBron James."

"There have been four games played. He's had the worst plus-minus on the team in every game he's played."

"Every time Zach Lowe or Bill Simmons says, man, he can just fit in anywhere, he can do whatever you ask him to do — yes. AND the team is worse when he's on the court versus anybody else."

"We've seen it with Austin Reaves and Luka Dončić, where he had a worse plus-minus than any of those guys. For the last two years he was much worse on the court than Anthony Davis. The team doesn't play as well. He just grabs his 15, 6 and 6, and people say, wow, it's amazing he's 41."

📉 The Sixers' per-100 numbers

Mac: "It's a huge gap."

Mac's framing of the project: "If this is my last couple of years of hating LeBron James — I just love the data that he gives us, as not being as good as what the mass media will conclude."

⭐ And the live-betting application

Scott asked whether there's a way to monetize it. Mac: "I think you could have played that every game. If you ever see LeBron check into the game, you hedge off your Sixers position — or vice versa. When he leaves the game, you just got a lot better on defense, you just got more direct on offense. All the good things we like when we're betting on a team."

🚀 NBA HQ IS LIVE — AND GETTING BIGGER THIS WEEK

At BettorDay.com and the app

• Full matchup analysis on every single game — every team's pace and efficiency, plus the four factors on offense and defense: effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebound percentage, and free throws to field goal attempts
• Prop projections — hit rates are already live; click any player for full game logs, what they've done on every prop, and where to shop it. New this week: projections based on the opponent, now that we have three or four games of data per team
• The first quarter database, updating every game — toggle to the 2026-27 season for every team's first-quarter and first-half records and stats

🍂 FALL SPECIAL: $25 OFF YOUR FIRST MONTH OF PREMIUM

🔥 And the College Football Run Continues

Last week was 18-5 — which Scott called the best college football Saturday the site has ever had, and didn't think could be topped.

Saturday, October 24th: 17-5.

⭐ College football selections since October 1: 75-46. Up 23 units.