NFL Week 6 Sunday Recap, MNF SGP & NBA Futures

Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers recap NFL Week 6 Sunday, preview MNF with a Same Game Parlay and Mackenzie gives out some NBA Futures thoughts.

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💀 CARDINALS 18, RAMS 16 — AND THEY NEVER SCORED A TOUCHDOWN

Chad Ryland's walk-off field goal ended it. Let that sentence sit for a moment:

Arizona beat the Los Angeles Rams without scoring a single touchdown — as 12.5 to 13.5-point underdogs — against a team that carried some of the shortest Super Bowl odds in the league before the season.

🦶 The Kicking Situation Was a Disaster Movie

The Rams cut Mevis and signed Blake Grupe. Grupe hit a field goal early — and then got hurt on the ensuing kickoff, trying to stop a returner.

So when Los Angeles finally scored the touchdown that could have won it, punter Ethan Evans had to kick the go-ahead extra point. He made it. Everyone exhaled. It didn't matter.

🤯 And They're Still the Fifth Super Bowl Favorite

The 2-4 Rams are 10-1 on FanDuel to win the Super Bowl — fifth-shortest price on the board. If the season ended today they would not be in the playoffs.

Mac: "They wouldn't be close. They'd have to hop over a few teams. And look at their schedule — we've been saying they're going to be 7-4, 8-3. Las Vegas isn't a pushover anymore. We saw that with the Bills. They're going at Arizona — we just beat them, and crazier things have happened."

After the bye: Packers, Chiefs, Niners, Cowboys, Seahawks — and the Seahawks again to close the season.

🪦 THE SURVIVOR MASSACRE

And in Circa Grandissimo, the $100,000 entry: six eliminated on the Rams, two on the Colts.

🐕 THE DOG SYSTEMS ARE PRINTING

🏆 And Nine Straight in Primetime

Packers 23, Cowboys 13 on Sunday night — with Dallas closing as a one-point favorite at Circa — makes it nine consecutive primetime games won outright by the underdog.

Scott: "I believe that streak will get snapped, because I don't think the Commanders win tonight."

🐂 Titans 26, Colts 20 — Tennessee Gets on the Board

Scott: "I'm starting to think the Colts are who we thought they were. Cute team, but not a playoff contender."

Mac: "Pretty bad loss. Maybe the worst loss of Shane Steichen's young career. It's the same old Colts, man. Eventually you've got to look past the coach — he's still above 50% ATS. Daniel Jones has looked a lot better, although he's been worse this year post-injury. I'd point the blame at the GM. Who are their difference makers outside of their guard? I guess the running back. It's hard to build a team around a guard and a running back."

Scott's addition: "Lou Anarumo is probably the one to blame. They apparently have a bunch of former Bengals on this defense now — and it's just the old Bengals that were so bad under Anarumo now being bad for the Colts. That's how you let a team like the Titans come back and beat you." Daniel Jones throwing a pile of interceptions didn't help.

🇬🇧 Texans 34, Jaguars 31 — The AFC South Is Live

Scott: "Houston is still the pick to win the division. Jacksonville's got the leg up, but this was a huge win because now the Texans have a leg up on the tiebreaker. And this Texans team, if not for bad mistakes by DeMeco Ryans, would have a much better record. Analytically they measure out better than their record says."

⭐ THE PLAY: TEXANS +290 TO WIN THE AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville is −290. Houston is +290.

Mac's supporting numbers:

The Texans are 16-5 under DeMeco Ryans in AFC South games.

C.J. Stroud posted a 95.4 QBR — the second-best mark of his career.

🐻 Bears 31, Falcons 23 — Caleb Williams Is Back

30-of-36, 305 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT.

Sacked four times, "because that's what Caleb Williams does — holds onto the ball too long." Everything else was ruthless efficiency.

Mac: "This is probably the best Bears offense of my lifetime, honestly. I can't even come close to thinking of one with this much potential. They have all the pieces. They have the coach. They have the quarterback now, for the first time ever."

Worth remembering: when Williams got hurt, Chicago was second-and-goal and about to take a lead that would have won that game. And in Week 1 at Carolina this offense put up 59 points.

Scott: "Maybe I take back all the negative things I said about Caleb Williams. Maybe not all of them."

🟤 Browns 13, Ravens 10 — Cleveland Leads the AFC North

Mac: "This game honestly made me think more about Lamar Jackson than anything. The difference between 17-13 at Cleveland and 10-13 losing is not that much statistically. Huntley has been a pretty good facsimile of Jackson — it just needed one play in the second half, or the second quarter. They didn't score after the first quarter. They never got that play. Henry fumbles at the end — and you put a little more emphasis on Henry when Jackson's not out there. That was the ballgame."

🔴 Patriots 26, Jets 19 — New England Is 4-2

Mac: "All things considered, Drake Maye has probably been better this year than last year — even though he was the MVP favorite for most of last year. An 89 QBR against a good defense, with AJ Brown dropping probably a hundred more yards of offense across the day."

⏱️ THE MOST DAMNING STAT OF THE SEASON

New England kicked a field goal with about 1:46 left in the first half, then scored a touchdown with 14 seconds left. Ten points in the final two minutes of a half.

Which led Scott to this:

Aaron Glenn, since becoming head coach of the New York Jets, has been outscored in the final two minutes of the first half 97 to 6.

🤨 COACHING MALPRACTICE, PART ONE: THE CAM SKATTEBO GAME

Saints 34, Giants 27

Scott: "This was like five different games in one."

First half: Giants go up 10-0. New Orleans gets a field goal, the Giants fumble the kickoff, short field, Saints touchdown. Ten points in the final 1:09 of the half. 10-10 at the break.

Then the double dip: Saints score a touchdown on the opening possession of the third. 17-10.

Then the Jameis Winston experience: two interceptions, and he's replaced by J.J. McCarthy, who actually played well — 11-of-21, 243 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.

The Giants came all the way back and had the ball in the red zone with a chance to tie, before a fourth-and-1 at the 14 with 12 seconds left went incomplete. Turnover on downs.

🚫 And Cam Skattebo Never Touched the Football

Not one carry. It was reported he wouldn't start because of fumble issues — fine. Then he spoke after the game:

Skattebo: "I got punished for what I did. I understand it, so I gotta be ready when coach calls my name, and that wasn't today. It's hard, but I've made mistakes and I've got to own up to them."

And then the head coach, asked about it:

"It was not by design. All those guys were taking equal reps in the first half. We were trying to see who could make something happen, who could kind of get a hot hand and earn it. Nobody's really taking the bull by the horns. It wasn't by design for him not to carry the ball. It was just when he was in there, we didn't call any runs."

📋 The Situation That Made It Indefensible

Teaching a lesson is fine. Don't start him. Don't give him the ball in the first half. But here's what the fourth quarter actually looked like, down 34-10:

The New Orleans offense ran nine plays in two minutes across the entire fourth quarter.

Scott: "You're down to a third-string quarterback. You're coming back against one of the worst defenses in the NFL — and one of the worst run defenses. That's the time you put in your bruising back and let him wear down a defense that cannot catch its breath. But nope."

The Giants are somehow still in first place at 3-2-1.

🤨 COACHING MALPRACTICE, PART TWO: STEELERS 26, BUCS 19 (OT)

Two bad decisions, one game. The first nearly cost Pittsburgh. The second actually cost Tampa Bay.

❌ Mistake one: Pittsburgh throws it at the goal line

A Tampa Bay interception handed the Steelers the ball inside the three-yard line with 1:38 left in a tied game. Tampa had two timeouts.

Scott: "Naturally you'd think run the ball, run it again, run it again. Heck, if I was the head coach I'd take three knees, force them to burn their two timeouts, and kick a field goal with 30-something seconds left."

Instead: two incomplete passes. Which stopped the clock and let Tampa keep both timeouts. Pittsburgh settled for the field goal, the Bucs marched down, tied it, overtime.

❌ Mistake two: Todd Bowles puts his gassed defense back on the field

Scott: "I know the obvious choice is you always want to play defense, because you want to know what you have to get. But at that point you have to understand what just happened in the game. The Tampa Bay defense was on the field for a lot, and they just got gashed. They needed time to catch their breath. When you win that toss, you take the ball."

The result: 12 plays, 70 yards, "like a hot knife through butter." Steelers touchdown. Game over.

Mac's nuance, which is worth keeping: "The Steelers' drives before that had been field goal, field goal, field goal, touchdown going back into regulation. The meta is not decided here — every time you lose when you take the ball, you get punished for it by the media. It's very situation-specific, because you might get three possessions and then getting the ball first would be the difference. But when you allow a seven-minute drive, pretty much whatever happens, you're up against it."

🚪 Bills 33, Raiders 30 — The Ultimate Backdoor

Scott had Bills −4.5. Buffalo was up ten on Las Vegas's final possession.

Then: a 22-yard pass interference penalty, followed by Kirk Cousins' 44-yard touchdown to Tre Tucker with 1:30 left.

⚡ Chiefs 22, Chargers 6

Scott got cute in Circa Millions and took the Chargers — division dog, touchdown dog, the same double system that cashed with Tennessee. It didn't work twice.

Los Angeles had a chance. The defense kept them in it with a goal-line stand — and then the offense fumbled in the red zone with a chance to score and cover. The Chiefs answered with 11 plays, 50 yards and 5:51 off the clock for a field goal. The Chargers went 11 plays, 62 yards and got nothing.

Scott's question: who gets fired first — or does Justin Herbert get traded?

Mac: "I'd love to see some NBA-style trades, because we never really get the counterfactual of how good these guys would be in different circumstances. The Chargers offensive line looks like the worst in the league — but is that because they don't know what they're doing, or they're hesitating?"

On whether Harbaugh fires his coordinator: "I don't know if Harbaugh is the guy to pass the buck like that. His whole aura is kind of above that — I could see him not wanting to, because it would look like he's passing the blame. But this is uncharted territory. He's never had a season this bad, in college or the pros."

🦅 Panthers 25, Eagles 14 — The Free Square Hit

Carolina closed as a 3 to 3.5-point favorite in Philadelphia and it looked every bit the part.

Tanner McKee: 26-of-45, 215 yards, 1 TD. Dameon Pierce carried 12 times for 35 yards and a score. DeVonta Smith had seven catches for 75.

Chuba Hubbard ran for 120.

Scott: "Philly was just not competitive. They made it close at one point, but even the defense let them down. It kind of felt like the aura was just out of the stadium."

And it gets worse: Jalen Hurts is going on IR — a minimum of four weeks.

🚩 THE PENALTY EPIDEMIC

Sunday night was, in Scott's words, unwatchable — dropped touchdowns, missed points, "there could have been over 30 points in the first half."

22 penalties for over 200 yards in the Packers-Cowboys game alone.

Warren Sharp has written about it. Todd Furman tweeted the Sunday slate — before Sunday night was even added:

Scott: "The penalties are getting ridiculous. The product is unwatchable, and the ticky-tack nature of some of these leaves NFL fans scratching their heads wondering what sport we're watching."

📊 Mac's Season-Over-Season Pull

Most penalties in an NFL season since 1946.

Mac: "What's really weird is the trend line — penalties had been ticking down through the entire modern era.They're up 20% from three years ago. I'm wondering if the kickoff thing is frustrating refs and they're taking it out — because it is really after they instituted the new kickoff that it went up 10%, and then another 15% this year."

"I don't have a good explanation. It seems more ref-initiated than players just being sloppier. I don't know, though."

🎰 MONDAY NIGHT SAME GAME PARLAY: 49ERS vs. COMMANDERS

49ers −7.5 | Total 51.5

Can the Commanders make it ten straight primetime dogs?

Mac: "I know streaks usually end on 13. I think streaks end at nine here."

🧠 The Thesis

Mac: "A lot sets up for Brock Purdy to have a field day. The Commanders play the most base defense in the NFL, which is really built to stop the run — and the 49ers have gotten very used to teams trying to stop the run on them and just throwing over the top. Brock Purdy kills base defense. The Commanders have a particularly bad passing defense and set up in formations Purdy takes advantage of."

"Even without Samuel, expect Kittle to have a hundred yards and a touchdown. Expect a lot of fireworks in Santa Clara."

⭐ THE BUILD

Why each leg

Purdy over: the drive starter, straight off the base-defense thesis.

McCaffrey under: Washington's one defensive strength is stopping the run. Let them have it.

Daniels over 37.5 rushing: Scott asked whether Daniels runs or protects the elbow. Mac: "I think he's worried about people thinking he's the dumbest quarterback in the NFL after last game. He probably throws caution to the wind at this point. He needs a bounce-back performance." And on the number itself: "He's averaging what, like 60 a game? Easy money."

The under is the correlation-breaker. Three legs all pointing the same direction only paid +397, so Scott deliberately added the leg that fights them. Mac: "The Niners defense has been top three in EPA. I don't see this game getting up there. This game is like 31-10 in my opinion."

Then the spread, for free. Adding 49ers −7.5 took it from +1119 to +2811. Mac: "It pretty much doubles it. No correlation penalty. I like that."

🏀 NBA TIPS TOMORROW — TWO FUTURES FROM MAC

🏆 Title Odds (FanDuel)

Mac: "Thunder and Spurs combined are like 50% of the pie. I think they're both maybe a bigger piece than that — but not enough to get crazy."

⭐ HIS PLAY: CELTICS 16-1

Mac: "The one team down the list I don't think is priced correctly is Boston. People have always considered Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to be 1A and 1B. I think this season will show that they're not. A set catch-and-shoot shooter like Paul George — if he's healthy, if he's decent — is just as valuable on offense as Jaylen Brown."

"And defensively, with Mitchell Robinson coming in and Tatum back, I think they're better than last year. This is like a 60-win team in a much tougher East."

"I think they could beat the Sixers straight up — and there's a high likelihood that one of the Sixers, if history is any guide, won't be there in the spring. Probably Joel Embiid."

🥇 MVP Odds

Scott: "Am I crazy for thinking Giannis at 10-1 is the bet?"

⭐ MAC: NO, YOU'RE NOT

"Historically in the NBA you have to have great PER, or one of the combo metrics. People love to throw stats on the board more than they care about efficiency — though ironically, player efficiency rating isn't an efficiency stat in my opinion, because you just count up all the stats. But that's neither here nor there."

"My point is he's always number one, two or three. He's going to be there. And the way you get the MVP is to be number one, two or three in your conference as well — and I think he'd have a sneaky chance to do that."

"If anyone can make what seems on paper like a tough offense work — Bam Adebayo and Giannis — we've seen Spoelstra pull miracles with lesser talent than that. Last year they had the number one offense through the first half of the season with Norman Powell doing most of the creation. I think they're being underappreciated by the market."

🚀 NBA HQ LAUNCHES TODAY

Live later today — Tuesday morning at the latest, ahead of tomorrow's tip.

What's in it:

• Game previews for every game, with the stat analysis
• Injury reports, updated — including player usage rates with and without specific players
• The new and improved first quarter / first half database

And critically: first basket and first score — the stats that some sportsbooks may not let you bet much longer.

📉 About That NBA Prop Story

The big sports betting story of the week: the NBA has asked its partner sportsbooks not to offer certain wagers — unders among them.

Scott's key distinction, and it matters:

It's the partner sportsbooks. The NBA can mandate what its partners offer. Other sportsbooks will still take the action.

📍 Live later today on BettorDay.com and the Bettor Day mobile app, ahead of Tuesday's tip-off. Become a Bettor Day Insider or Premium member to get it. Compare tiers →