NFL Week 5 Sunday Recap / MNF Preview
🎙️ No podcast this morning. The Bettor Day podcast returns Wednesday morning with David Bearman. In the meantime, here's everything that happened on Week 5 Sunday — and how the board we laid out Friday actually graded.
🧊 FEZZIK WAS RIGHT, AND IT WASN'T CLOSE
Packers 31, Bears 7
Friday's newsletter had a room split on Bears-Packers. Scott liked Packers, Bearman liked Bears, Fiddle bought at Bears −1.5 and was fine with the price. Fezzik called it "the stupidest line I've ever seen" and said flatly, "Green Bay is gonna kill them."
Green Bay killed them.
| Packers | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 428 | 246 |
| Yards per play | 7.3 | 3.6 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 5 |
| Passer rating | 137.5 | 39.1 |
| Sacks | 4 | 2 |
Jordan Love: 25-of-31, 367 yards, 2 touchdowns, no interceptions, 80.6% completion rate. Christian Watson caught touchdowns of 42 and 53 yards. The Packers intercepted three passes and recovered two fumbles.
🇬🇧 LONDON: A 57-YARD FIELD GOAL WITH ONE SECOND LEFT
Jaguars 19, Eagles 17
The biggest market move of the season without a quarterback injury — Philadelphia from +2.5 to +7.5 — and Jacksonville needed a career-defining kick to win by two.
How it finished
| Time | Play |
|---|---|
| Q4 3:26 | Lawrence to Parker Washington, 27 yards, TD — Jaguars 16-14 |
| Q4 3:20 | Extra point is no good |
| Q4 0:12 | Jake Elliott 48-yard field goal — Eagles 17-16 |
| Q4 0:01 | Cam Little, 57 yards. Good. Jaguars 19-17. |
That missed extra point is the whole game. At 17-16 instead of 17-17, Jacksonville needed a field goal rather than being able to play for one — and Little delivered from 57 with a second on the clock.
📊 The Eagles' Offensive Line Story, In One Number
Friday's case against Philadelphia was Lane Johnson's retirement, the Cam Jurgens trade, and Saquon Barkley out. Here's what that produced:
Eagles rushing: 18 carries, 22 yards. 1.2 yards per attempt. Five carries went for a loss, totaling −16.
Philadelphia also held the ball for just 24:58, managed 3.9 yards per play, completed 52.5% of its passes, and went 1-for-18 on rushing first downs. Jalen Hurts' 62-yard touchdown to Danny Cooper was most of the passing production; outside of it the offense gained 158 yards.
Jacksonville out-gained them 408 to 232 and still nearly lost — thanks to 13 penalties for 100 yards.
Graded: Bearman's under lean cashed (36 points). Unders are now 13 of the last 19 in London.
🌙 SUNDAY NIGHT: RAVENS WIN IN OVERTIME AFTER TRAILING BY EIGHT WITH 2:35 LEFT
Ravens 30, Falcons 23 (OT)
Lamar did not play. Tyler Huntley started. Baltimore won anyway.
The collapse
| Time | Score |
|---|---|
| Q4 2:35 | Nick Folk 48-yard FG — Falcons 23-15 |
| Q4 0:44 | Huntley to Devontez Walker, 7 yards, TD — 23-21 |
| Q4 0:40 | Derrick Henry two-point conversion — 23-23 |
| OT | Huntley 1-yard rushing TD — 30-23 |
Atlanta led by eight with under three minutes to play, at home, and lost.
Huntley: 24-of-32, 201 yards, 2 TD, 111.6 rating. Baltimore ran it 35 times for 208 yards (5.9 per carry) and controlled the ball for 35:10. Henry had the 18-yard touchdown catch and the two-point conversion run that forced overtime.
Atlanta's points came the hard way: a Jessie Bates 36-yard fumble-recovery touchdown in the first quarter off a forced Mark Andrews fumble, a 5-yard Michael Penix touchdown to Kyle Pitts, and three Nick Folk field goals. Penix went 21-of-35 for 274 with a pick, and Atlanta was sacked three times.
Graded: Fezzik's no-play on Atlanta −3.25 was the right read on a wrong-looking number.
📋 The Full Week 5 Scoreboard
| Game | Final | Friday's Number | Side Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars 19, Eagles 17 (London) | 36 | JAX −7.5 | Eagles +7.5 ✅ |
| Jets 17, Browns 12 | 29 | Jets -2 | Jets ✅ |
| Packers 31, Bears 7 | 38 | CHI −2.5 | Packers ✅ |
| Bengals 31, Dolphins 24 | 55 | CIN −6.5 | Bengals by 7 ✅ (by half a point) |
| Patriots 45, Raiders 17 | 62 | NE −3.5 | Patriots ✅ |
| Vikings 23, Saints 13 | 36 | MIN −2.5 | Vikings ✅ |
| Texans 26, Titans 3 | 29 | HOU −7 | Texans ✅ |
| Commanders 27, Giants 27 | 54 | WAS −3.5 | 🟡 TIE |
| Steelers 34, Colts 22 | 56 | PIT −2.75 | Steelers ✅ |
| Broncos 23, Chargers 17 | 40 | DEN −3.5 | Broncos ✅ |
| Lions 45, Cardinals 21 | 66 | DET −5.5 | Lions ✅ |
| 49ers 32, Seahawks 29 | 61 | SEA −3 | 49ers ✅ |
| Ravens 30, Falcons 23 (OT) | 53 | ATL −3.5 | Ravens ✅ |
| Thursday: Bucs 24, Cowboys 16 | 40 | DAL - 8 | Buccaneers ✅ |
🟡 Yes, There Was a Tie
Commanders 27, Giants 27. Washington came in a 3.5-point home favorite with Jayden Daniels back and couldn't finish it. The Giants are now 3-1-1 and lead the NFC East; Washington is 1-3-1.
If you were in a survivor pool on the Commanders — and AJ mentioned on Thursday's show that he was considering exactly that — a tie is a loss in most rulebooks. Check your pool's language, but this is the nightmare outcome nobody prices in.
📈 The Late Window Went Over, Hard
The early slate was mostly unders — London 36, Vikings-Saints 36, Texans-Titans 29. Then the afternoon and night games produced 66, 61, 56, 62, and 53. If you were laddering overs in the late window, it was your Sunday.
Notably, Fiddle talked himself off a winner. He liked the Colts-Steelers over at 44.5 — Rodgers' aDOT over 10 yards, Pittsburgh's run defense slipping to 16th-17th, the Colts converting 75% of red zone trips — and then the weather forecast (gusts to 25, possible rain) turned it into what he called "a murky total market." It went 56. The handicap was right. The weather hedge cost it.
✅ How Friday's Card Graded
A clean weekend for the Football Show crew.
| Play | Source | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Steelers −2.5 vs. Colts | AJ's best bet of the show | ✅ Won (34-22) |
| Rams ML | Fiddle, to −175 | ⏳ Tonight |
| Vikings −2.5 at Saints | Fiddle (Pinnacle limit raise) | ✅ Won (23-13) |
| Eagles/Jaguars under | Bearman | ✅ Won (36) |
| Jaguars | Fezzik, survivor | ✅ Won (19-17) |
| Commanders | AJ, survivor consideration | 🟡 Lost (29-32) |
| Lions −5.5, Falcons SNF | Fezzik, no play | ✅ Correct passes |
🤝 Who Called It
And credit where it's due — on Saturday's Survivor pod, Mac issued an unprompted warning: "You better not pick the Seahawks in this contest. The 49ers are going to win that game."
😬 "The Raiders Are Never Good. Never."
Fezzik's Alan Boston handicap, delivered Thursday while everyone debated Kirk Cousins versus Drake Maye. Patriots 45, Raiders 17. New England is 3-2 and Maye answered the downgrade question emphatically.
🪟 Survivor Check-In: Dan and Mac Go 2-for-2
Both official picks from Saturday's Dan and Mac Survive the NFL survived — 2 of 8 entries still alive, both intact.
| Pool | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Pool 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | ✅ Won 19-17 — on a 57-yard field goal with one second left |
| Pool 2 | Detroit Lions −5.5 at Arizona | ✅ Won 45-21 |
The Lions pick was the week's best piece of process. Mac's math was: the total is 54.5, Detroit gets 30 of it, Arizona gets 24.5. Detroit got 45. Dan's read on Arizona's offensive line — backup left tackle, backup right guard, Jacoby Brissett under pressure — was exactly the collapse point.
Also validated: the Broncos save. Dan and Mac held Denver rather than using them at the Chargers, wanting to see whether Sean Payton's increased involvement fixed the offense. Denver won 23-17 — so the pick would have cashed, but it's banked for a much softer back-half schedule.
🏆 Where Things Stand After Five Weeks
Undefeated:
- Minnesota Vikings (5-0)
- San Francisco 49ers (5-0)
- Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Winless:
- Tennessee Titans (0-5)
- Miami Dolphins (0-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (0-5)
Division leaders: Giants (3-1-1), 49ers (5-0), Vikings (5-0), Panthers (2-2) in the NFC; Bills (3-1), Ravens (4-1), Jaguars (4-1), Chiefs (4-0) in the AFC.
The Eagles are 2-3 and host Carolina next week. Jacksonville is 4-1 and stays in London to host Houston.
🌴 TONIGHT: BILLS AT RAMS
Monday Night Football | 8:15 PM ET
The one game left on the Week 5 board, and it's the one our guys were loudest about.
📊 Fiddle's Position and His Instruction
Fiddle has a sizable Rams position, and his guidance Friday was specific about how to take it:
"I would still take Rams moneyline. The line's moved through the three, so you're paying about 3.2 in moneyline but 3.5-ish in spread — moneyline offers better value right now. I'm seeing −160, −163, −166, −165. Those are all buys for me, probably good to about −175."
If you can still find the Rams at or inside −175, that's his number.
🔥 Fezzik: Double Digits
Fezzik: "I think the Rams win this game by double digits. The Bills have been in three different continents. They've been everywhere, man. And the Rams just killed the Eagles in Philly in the world's worst spot. Now they've got eight days and Josh Allen is injured. You've got the very best team against a team that's compromised."
What's actually in front of us
| Bills | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Rest | Short-ish, heavy travel | Eight days |
| Last out | Lost at New England | Beat the Eagles in Philadelphia |
Live win probability has the Rams at roughly 63%. That lands right about where Fiddle's −175 ceiling sits, which means the market and his number are in agreement — there's no free money here, just a side.
The things that could flip it: Josh Allen's health is the obvious one, and the Bills are the better team on paper when he's right. Buffalo also now has a loss to a New England team that just hung 45 on the Raiders, which reads better in hindsight than it did a week ago.
⚠️ One caution worth stating: the Rams have been the sharp side all week, and the number moved through three to get there. If you're coming to this late, you're paying the tax everyone else avoided. Fiddle's −175 cap exists for a reason.
📅 Coming Up
- 🎙️ Wednesday morning: The Bettor Day podcast returns with David Bearman
- 📺 Thursday, 2 PM ET / 11 AM PT: The BettorDay Football Show streams live on YouTube and Twitter
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