> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bettorday.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Monday, November 2nd, 2026 - URL: https://www.bettorday.com/monday-november-2nd-2026/ - Published: 2026-11-02T11:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-02T17:21:24.000Z - Author: Scott Seidenberg - Tags: Newsletter ## Monday Morning Quarterback, NFL 2nd Quarter Review & MNF Preview *Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers recap NFL Week 8 Sunday and preview Monday Night Football between the Seahawks and Bears. Plus as we end the 2nd Quarter of the NFL season, who is who?* [![CTA Image](https://storage.ghost.io/c/3d/8b/3d8b18a7-5597-46d3-a5fc-54ba849c80c9/content/images/2026/07/NEW-POD-COVER.png)](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) Listen to today's Podcast episode and don't forget to subscribe! [Listen ](https://bleav.com/shows/bettor-day/?ref=bettorday.com) # 🏈 LAMAR JACKSON: ONE SNAP, THEN IR **Bills 36, Ravens 10** — though that score is a lie. **This was a one-score game going into the third quarter**, and Buffalo added a late touchdown to make it look like something it wasn't. **Lamar played one snap, injured his thumb, and is headed to IR requiring surgery.** Then **Tyler "Snoop" Huntley went down with turf toe**, which left Baltimore's third-string emergency quarterback playing the bulk of an NFL game. ## Mac raised the stakes on the question **Scott asked whether we see Lamar again this season. Mac went further:** > ⭐ **"Will we see Lamar Jackson play another snap for the Baltimore Ravens again in his career? He has a big contract coming to a close. They've supposedly been working on one, but with the mysterious injuries piling up… I would not be surprised if they move on from him with a new coach and a new regime in place. A lot of teams would be interested in him. It could be the end of an era in Baltimore."** **And his framing of the Lamar binary is sharp:** "He has two seasons, and it pendulums back and forth between his supporters and his detractors. **Either injuries pile up and the Ravens underperform — or he wins MVP and they lose a close playoff game to the Bills. Those are the two Lamar Jackson seasons.** This is clearly the former." ## Scott's counter: here's the path back **Baltimore is 4-4.** Recovery timeline per Dr. Chao is roughly **four to six weeks**, and IR forces a minimum four-week absence. | The next five weeks | | | ------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Thursday** | at Jacksonville | | **Monday the 16th** | Chargers — *after the mini-bye, the realistic window to bring in a quarterback* | | Then | Panthers, Texans, Buccaneers | | **Closing stretch** | Steelers, Browns, Bengals, Steelers — all divisional | > ⭐ **Scott's marker: "If they go 3-2 over the next five weeks — if you're 7-6 before that Steelers game — Lamar Jackson comes back and the Ravens are still alive to make the playoffs."** ### 🔴 THE LINE MOVE: 11.5 POINTS | | | | -------------- | ---------------- | | **Lookahead** | **Ravens −3** | | **Now** | **Jaguars −8.5** | | **Total move** | **11.5 points** | --- # 🌧️ BUCCANEERS 16, FALCONS 0 — WITHOUT COMPLETING A PASS **Baker Mayfield went 0-for-3\. Tampa Bay won anyway.** | The history | | | ---------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------- | | **Last team to win an NFL game without completing a pass** | **1974** | | **Last team to win by 10+ without completing a pass** | **November 11, 1945** — World War II was wrapping up | **And Atlanta's side of it:** they allowed **56 rushing attempts for 324 yards.** Driving rain, wind, mud, a sloppy field — all true. It was still, as Scott put it, a candidate for the most embarrassing loss in the NFL this season. **Mac's dagger:** "**It's not like they can say they were caught off guard by the game plan.** The Buccaneers did this last week too. **Since Baker Mayfield's been back he's 7-for-14 for 60 yards.** This was exactly the scenario — can we just run every single time and protect our quarterback with a plate in his hand?" --- # 💀 SURVIVOR CARNAGE: THREE WAYS ## Bengals 43, Titans 36 (OT) — the escape **Cincinnati should have lost this**, and it would have been a bloodbath: **more than half the Circa Survivor pool — around 350 entries — were on the Bengals**, including Dan and Mac's last entry from Saturday's podcast. **The play that saved everyone:** Tennessee, across midfield at the end of regulation, **ten yards from game-winning field goal range, third-and-three.** > **Scott: "You cannot take a sack for negative 12 yards. Just throw the ball away. Even if you don't go for it on fourth down — which you're probably not — you're still going to punt it. You cannot backpedal and take a sack for negative 12\. That's a complete lack of awareness for an NFL quarterback."** **Mac's twist, which makes it worse rather than better:** "It's funny you'd say this is the straw that broke the camel's back, **because this was his best game by far — his first full game with a QBR over 80.** But if this is the best it gets and you make a critical mistake, **I'd be surprised if he's still a starter in a few years, if not next year.**" ## Cardinals 33, Cowboys 30 (OT) — the massacre **Dallas led 24-10.** Chad Ryland missed the extra point that would have won it in regulation and got a second chance in overtime. **It was a story of backups:** | Player | Line | | ---------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------- | | **Tyler Allgeier** (in for an injured starter) | **11 carries, 147 yards, TD** | | **Gardner Minshew** (QB change) | **17-of-23, 188 yards, 3 TD** | **Mac:** "Five or six possessions, **five scores including the game winner, four touchdowns.** Doesn't get much better than that. **It feels like the Cowboys just fell asleep** — I feel like people were headed toward the exits." **And this is the third time Arizona has done this in 2026:** Week 1 against the Chargers, two weeks ago against the Rams, and now. **They've personally taken out two of Dan and Mac's entries.** ## Commanders 27, Eagles 10 — the survive **Philadelphia led 10-0 and then gave up 27 unanswered** with Tanner McKee at quarterback. **81 Circa survivors were on Washington** and got through. --- # 🦁 LIONS 19, VIKINGS 15 — THE UNDEFEATED SEASON ENDS **Strength on strength, weakness on weakness.** The Lions' offense against Minnesota's defense; Detroit's pathetic defense against Minnesota's pathetic offense. **Jahmyr Gibbs got the big play and finished with 153 rushing yards and a touchdown.** **Scott's read, which is counterintuitive:** "Despite the loss, **this was the best we've seen from Kyler Murray in a Minnesota Vikings uniform.**" **Mac agreed and made it an indictment of everything around him:** "**He accounted for all but 30 yards of their offense.** The running game under Kevin O'Connell has been non-existent almost year after year. **Kyler Murray wasn't the problem — their offense was the problem that he's a part of.** But they have absolutely nothing else going on. **Justin Jefferson had 33 yards.**" > **"I said this might be the worst 6-0 team we've seen, and you disagreed with me. They're only projected to win about ten and a half or eleven games, and they have a tough schedule coming. We'll see if they prove me wrong — but they are not the juggernaut their record made them appear.**" --- # 🛬 JETS 33, RAIDERS 38 **The only bright spot he could find:** "The Jets weren't outscored in the final two minutes of the first half." **On the ending** — Geno Smith throwing to the end zone with plenty of time left rather than throwing short to extend the game — **Mac actually defended the decision:** "There are two ways to think about it. **It looks like Garrett Wilson out of the corner of your eye might have one-on-one coverage. You don't see the safety there if you're Geno Smith.** And the offense wasn't the problem." **And his broader point about how we evaluate these moments is worth keeping:** > ⭐ **"I always say we concentrate on: they had a 2% chance to win the game, and they made a terrible play, and then they had a 0% chance. Okay — well, they got into the position to have a 2% chance to win the game."** ## The actual case against Glenn **For the second week in a row, a quarterback nobody would call a Hall of Famer had his best game of the season against the Jets.** Three touchdowns, no picks, an 88 QBR this week. Malik Willis had a record-setting performance the week before. **Mac:** "**This is supposed to be your specialty. You are a cornerback. You are a secondary specialist.** And no interceptions again. **What do they have — one interception in two years?** If you're not doing your strong suit well, it's hard to make an argument for you to stay." **Scott:** "That's the most damning thing. People said Aaron Glenn's a bad head coach but a great defensive mind. **No, he's not. The Jets defense stinks.**" --- # ⚫ STEELERS 27, BROWNS 6 — AND A TREND GETS DEBUNKED LIVE **Pittsburgh bucked the Europe trend.** Teams returning from a European game without a bye were, over the last two seasons, **1-7 straight up and 0-8 ATS.** That's now **2-7 and 1-8.** **Cleveland's problem wasn't passing.** Deshaun Watson threw for 324 yards. They couldn't run, and **Pittsburgh's defense sacked him eight times.** > **Scott: "Deshaun Watson is the only quarterback in the NFL to be sacked eight times in a game. He's done it twice."** ### ⭐ Mac's correction to the trend — this is the important part **Mac:** "**Why are we just doing two years? If you expand it all the way to 2016, when we started the international games, now you're 10-8 ATS if you're coming back.**" > ⭐ **"The subset you really want is: a team coming back from Europe facing a team with extended rest — off a bye, or off a Thursday night game. That's the split that matters. If the opponent is NOT off extended rest, then teams coming back from Europe do fine."** --- # 🐆 JAGUARS 42, COLTS 7 — THE WHITE FLAG The streak continues **Scott on the body language:** "Red Zone kept showing Jonathan Taylor talking to his teammates on the sideline. **He knows he's being traded too.** It just feels like the turning of the page — waving the white flag." **And Mac found it in the play calling:** > **"Jonathan Taylor got eight carries out of the twenty-six the team had. So they're saying: okay, we're still playing him, he's still dressing, he's healthy — and by the way, he's going to STAY healthy, because we're not going to expose him, because we're probably going to try to get a draft pick back."** **What's next:** possibly Anthony Richardson, possibly Riley Leonard. **Mac wants Richardson:** "What else do they have to lose? It's probably going to be a whole new everything next year. **Why not give your number four overall pick a chance to prove he can do something and stay healthy?**" *The structural cruelty: Indianapolis doesn't own its own first-round pick. It belongs to the New York Jets from the Sauce Gardner trade.* --- # 📉 THE JUSTIN HERBERT COLLAPSE, QUANTIFIED **Rams 24, Chargers 9.** Los Angeles improves to 4-4\. **The Chargers are 0-7 and did not score a touchdown.** Herbert went 24-of-32 for 257 yards **with two interceptions** — and, as Scott put it, "on some of these you have no idea what he's looking at." **So Scott went and looked up where this ranks historically. The answer is: with the dead.** | Herbert, year over year | Last year | This year | | ------------------------------ | --------- | ---------- | | **Completion % over expected** | **+1.6** | **−5.7** | | **Success rate** | **48.7%** | **38.9%** | | **Interception rate** | **2.1%** | **3.7%** | | **EPA per play change** | | **−0.241** | | Where that ranks since 1990 | | | ------------------------------------------------- | ---------------- | | **Year-over-year drop-off in EPA per play** | **15th largest** | | **Drop-off from a quarterback's own best season** | **9th largest** | **And here's the company on those lists:** > **Brett Favre in Minnesota. Nick Foles going from Philadelphia to St. Louis. Peyton Manning in Denver. Aaron Rodgers' one bad year in Green Bay. Matthew Stafford the year he got hurt. Matt Cassel going from New England to Kansas City. Matt Ryan. Mark Brunell. Tom Brady.** **Scott's observation:** "Most of the players above him were all at the end of their careers, essentially." *Daniel Jones technically had a bigger year-over-year drop-off, but he was hurt at the end of last season, which changes things.* ## ⭐ Mac's addition is the part that stings > ⭐ **"Unlike Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, he didn't have an all-time season to fall from. He had a very good second year in the NFL. His best year was either his rookie year or his second year — and he's gotten kind of worse every single year since. Ever since they dropped that 28-point lead in the playoffs to the Jaguars, he hasn't been nearly as good as the tape guys, or even the analytics guys, who want to defend him and call him a top-five quarterback. There's just not been a lot to validate that opinion other than practice tape."** **The receipt:** **Herbert was ranked sixth in Mike Sando's poll of league executives this year.** *(Longtime readers will recognize this — it's the second time in two weeks that Sando's executive poll has turned out to be a list of quarterbacks the market overvalued. Mac made the same point about the preseason rankings on the Survivor pod.)* --- # ⛰️ BRONCOS 28, CHIEFS 24 — ✅ OUR BEST BET CASHES **We said it all week and it landed.** The Chiefs got exposed against Seattle and hadn't beaten anybody; the travel-to-elevation spot was the problem. | Bo Nix | | | ----------------------------- | | | **20-of-32, 222 yards, 2 TD** | | **Jonah Coleman was excellent** catching and running in place of RJ Harvey. And the defensive story: > ⭐ **Denver bottled up Kenneth Walker — which makes two straight weeks that two elite defenses have taken him away.** **Mac on why that's fatal to this Chiefs team:** "**When you bottle up Kenneth Walker, you lose your jab and your only counters, and then you run out of counters.** Zero points in the fourth quarter. Emmett Johnson had that 40-yard catch and run, but **they didn't have anything they could consistently go back to.**" **The asterisk, and he raised it himself:** "I'm not sure that was a false start on the fourth down. **That was a head bob. That was a very Mile High call.**" --- # 🌊 MONDAY NIGHT: SEAHAWKS −3 OVER BEARS > ⭐ **Scott has Seattle No. 1 in his power rankings.** ## The Caleb Williams referendum **Scott:** "When you look at Caleb Williams against elite defenses, **he does not perform.** Against Minnesota earlier this year — yes, it was raining, yes, he got hurt in that game, but it was not a good performance. Historically against the Vikings, up and down. **Last year the Eagles were a top-tier defense and he was subpar. And in his rookie year he faced this same Mike Macdonald Seahawks defense and did not perform.**" > **"If he does a great job tonight and the Bears win, maybe I change my opinion on Caleb Williams. But until I see it, I cannot elevate him into the top tier people want to put him in."** ## And Seattle's run game just arrived | New to the Seahawks backfield tonight | | | ------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Quenton Nelson** | Acquired from the Colts — "improves your run blocking tremendously" | | **Jadarian Price** | First-round pick, **returns tonight** | | **Zach Charbonnet** | **Season debut** | **Scott:** "**If the Seahawks have a running game now, it takes a lot of pressure off Sam Darnold.** It makes them a much more dangerous team." ## Mac's agreement, with the Bears' bipolar scoring chart **Mac:** "I'm glad you came down on this side, because this is my argument too. **The Bears have two types of games.**" | Game | Points | | ----------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ | | vs. Carolina (Week 1) | **59** | | at Minnesota | **3** | | vs. Philadelphia (home) | 27 — *"does not look as impressive as it did at the time"* | | vs. Jets | *win* | | at Green Bay | **7** | | vs. Falcons | 30 | | vs. New England | 30 — *"a pretty good win on a short week on Thursday night"* | > **"It's boom or bust. If we're thinking about correlations and how this game plays out, I could see the Seahawks doing exactly what they did to Kansas City last week — taking away your fastball and not giving you anything fun to play with. It could be 27-7\. I would not be shocked."** --- # 🏀 THE RECEIPT: A 25-TO-1 TICKET, FOUR MONTHS LATER **On Monday, July 6th**, on this podcast and in this newsletter, we went through NBA Rookie of the Year odds. The board looked like this: | Player | July 6 odds | | --------------------------------- | ------------------- | | Cameron Boozer | **+250** (favorite) | | Darryn Peterson | +320 | | AJ Dybantsa | +430 | | **Yaxel Lendeborg, Golden State** | **+2500** ⭐ | **What Scott wrote that day, verbatim:** > **"I was seeing clips of Lendeborg for the Warriors in the California Classic. Couple of blocks, three of five from three. In a system playing alongside Steph Curry, he's going to have plenty of opportunities. Plus, he could very well start as a rookie under Steve Kerr. I think it's a good flyer at 25 to 1."** **Then on July 20th**, after Lendeborg put up **21 points on 9-of-18, 10 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals to lead all scorers in a Summer League title game win**, we reminded everyone — and the number had already moved to **15 to 1.** ## Where it stands today | Rookie of the Year (Kalshi) | | | --------------------------- | ------- | | Cameron Boozer | **33%** | | **Yaxel Lendeborg** | **28%** | **And last night: 37 points as Golden State beat the Clippers 124-112.** ## Mac would take Lendeborg over the favorite **And the reasoning is all about opportunity, which is exactly what the original thesis was:** - **Steph Curry is playing the fewest minutes of his career by a wide margin** — while leading the league in points per minute. Hyper-efficient, but not on the floor much - **Draymond Green is under 30 minutes a game** - **"He has ample opportunity to be the guy on a team that's relevant** because of Steph Curry and, to a lesser degree, Draymond. **And Steph is going to miss games — and then he's going to put on a show.**" **The age wrinkle, which cuts both ways:** > **Mac: "By the way, he's 24\. He's older than Cooper Flagg. He's the same age as Evan Mobley, who's a three-time All-Star. People were saying if Cooper Flagg hadn't changed his year and this was his rookie season, would he be the best rookie ever? I think if Lendeborg were four years into this league, he might be a top-20 player."** **And the chip-on-the-shoulder detail Scott dug up: his own college coach passed on him.** Lendeborg was the second of three Michigan players taken in the first round — **Morez Johnson went 9th to Dallas, Lendeborg went 11th** — and Dusty May, his own coach, took Johnson. --- # 🏀 AROUND THE NBA **The Thunder are a disaster.** Injury after injury, and then **Cason Wallace dislocated his shoulder** after they made the bold move to sign him. **Mac:** "You can't make that stuff up." **And the West is wide open:** > ⭐ **Mac: "The Houston Rockets are very live. The paradigm we had of a two-team race has been completely shattered. Wemby probably wins the MVP — and there are probably a few teams that could compete with him in the playoffs."** --- ## 📅 Coming Up **NBA HQ is live** on BettorDay.com and in the Bettor Day mobile app. **This week's update: prop projections built on positional analysis and usage rate.** ### 🗓️ College Basketball HQ launches November 16th **That's the start of Feast Week**, and the timing is deliberate. **The model is already running now that the season has started** — we back-tested it against last season's numbers, but we're using **the next 15 days to test it against live 2026 game data** before publishing. You'll get the model projections and our own line on every game. **Bettor Day Fall Special:** $25 off your first month of a premium membership | 🍂 The Fall Special 🍂 $25 off your first month of Premium Every sport in season, every pick, every HQ. Your first month is **$29.99** $54.99. 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