NBA Finals Game 3 Preview & Best Bets
Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers preview tonight's Game 3 of the NBA Finals with the Knicks up 2-0 on the Spurs. Plus the A's begin a series tonight in Las Vegas.
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🏀 CORONATION OR COLLAPSE?
NBA Finals Game 3: Tonight at MSG
| Line | Total |
|---|---|
| NYK -2.5 | 216.5 |
The hottest ticket in sports. President Trump in attendance. Tickets priced out of reach for most fans.
🏀 The Pressure Angle
Scott: "I actually think there's more pressure on the Knicks tonight than the Spurs. That building tonight — Knicks fans are treating this like a coronation. Like they already won the title."
Mackenzie: "I absolutely agree. I think they could win the championship tonight. And I'm not sure if they lose it, how much their chances will drop off."
Scott: "If the Knicks lose tonight, the Spurs are right back in this series. They could easily win Game 4, reclaim home court, and all of a sudden this becomes panic mode for New York."
🏀 The Line Movement
| Game 1-2 Avg | Expected G3 | Actual G3 |
|---|---|---|
| Spurs -6 | Pick'em | Knicks -2.5 |
Mackenzie: "Flip home court, it should be about a pick'em game. The market says not so fast. Two and a half points from pick'em is a massive upgrade."
Why? Knicks have the best 12-game scoring margin in NBA history (272 points). Now 13-game stretch.
🏀 Historical Trends
Teams Win G1-G2 on Road, Home for G3
| SU | ATS | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 12-13 | 11-14 | 16-9 |
If Underdog in First Two Games
| SU | ATS | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | 6-8 | 10-4 |
Scott: "The overs are still the way."
🏀 Mackenzie's Take
Mackenzie: "I like the Spurs here. New York's not been a great home court advantage historically. The road team can get up in that crazy environment. I think both teams respond to it. I think the Spurs have value."
The youth factor: "The Spurs, just like against the Thunder, aren't going to make any roster changes no matter what happens. The Knicks are not like that. Jalen Brunson likely will not make another Finals. That's just the way it goes."
🏀 The Props
De'Aaron Fox: Tonight's His Night
| Prop | Line |
|---|---|
| Points | o14.5 |
Scott: "There's a real possibility tonight's the De'Aaron Fox game. Go over, or ladder it — 20+, 25+. He could go off."
Mackenzie: "He was 8-for-12 in Game 2. He's become comfortable with his current physical limitations. They're not gonna go to Castle or Harper. They're gonna rely on Fox in Madison Square Garden."
Karl-Anthony Towns: Fade Time
| Prop | Line | Play |
|---|---|---|
| PRA | 33.5 | UNDER |
| Points | 17.5 | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 11.5 | Lean under |
| Assists | 4+ | -154, still like it |
Scott: "The one adjustment Mitch Johnson is going to make is how they defend Towns. He's had a major impact on this series. I think that has to be the focus."
Mackenzie: "He only took seven two-point shots. No shots in the clutch. No shots when Wemby was out there and they needed a bucket. Not because he missed — they didn't go to him."
Landry Shamet
| Prop | Line |
|---|---|
| 3PT made | o1.5 (-158) |
| Lead series in 3s | 10/1 |
Scott: "Shamet's making two threes tonight. Champagny has 7 threes in this series, Shamet has 6. Why can't Shamet lead this series in threes?"
First Quarter
| Play | Notes |
|---|---|
| Over 56.5 | Spurs correlated to over |
Mackenzie: "I like the Spurs in the first quarter, and the Spurs are correlated to the over."
🏀 Series Props
Leading Scorer
| Player | Current Points | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Wemby | 55 | -200 |
| Brunson | 50 | +130 |
Mackenzie: "Brunson might win or lose, end up leading the series in points. Pop texted Wemby and said 'You're shooting too much, playing outside your game.' Game 7 vs Thunder he only scored 22. You might only have two more games and they might both be home games for Brunson."
Leading Rebounder
| Player | Current | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Towns | 25 | -205 |
| Wemby | 21 | +160 |
| Josh Hart | 21 | +1600 |
Scott: "I get the same amount of rebounds as Wemby, I'm chasing four rebounds, and I can bet +1600? How about Josh Hart to lead the series in rebounds?"
Mackenzie: "Reminds me of the Andrew Wiggins famous bet — 70/1 to lead the 2022 Finals in rebounds as a wing."
🏀 NBA Finals MVP
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | +115 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | +165 |
| Victor Wembanyama | +380 |
Brunson's Clutch Numbers
10 points in clutch minutes in G1-G2 — most of anybody in this series.
Scott: "How is this not -250? Without Jalen Brunson, the New York Knicks are irrelevant. He changed this franchise. There's no voter that's going to watch the Knicks win two more games and not vote for Brunson. Jalen Brunson at plus one fifteen is a gift."
🏒 Stanley Cup Final Game 4: Tomorrow
Hurricanes vs Golden Knights — In Vegas
| Line | Total |
|---|---|
| CAR -113 | 5.5 (over -134) |
| VGK -106 | — |
Vegas is a home dog.
Scott: "The market and the power rating is too heavily in favor of Carolina. It doesn't take into account how even this series is. There's no way Vegas at home is an underdog. It makes no sense."
Mackenzie: "What changed? Carolina lost. We must protect this house. The fortress is protected. Give me the Knights as a home dog."
Note: All 3 games in this series have gone OVER.
⚾ A's in Vegas: Game 1 of 6
Brewers vs A's — Las Vegas Ballpark
| Line | Total |
|---|---|
| MIL -154 | 10.5 (over -122) |
The Problem
Kyle Harrison on the mound:
- Record: 7-1
- ERA: 1.57
- Never allowed more than 2 runs in any start this season
The Solution
Scott: "The ball will fly out of the ballpark. No team hits more home runs at home than the Las Vegas Aviators. Tonight's weather: 16-20 mph wind gusts"
F5 under 5.5 + full game over 10.5 (anti-correlated SGP)
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